UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Analysis: Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Fares Ziam to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Fares Ziam: -150
Axel Sola: +125

Fares Ziam's Breakdown

Ziam is a 6'1" lightweight who fights out of an orthodox stance and wins through comprehensive, patient MMA. He sits at #14 in the lightweight rankings and, before his most recent bout, was riding six straight wins. His game leans on three pillars.

First, the length-based counter striking. Against Matt Frevola in 2024, Ziam parked his back foot on the fence and picked off the advancing pressure fighter with a long left hook, punishing Frevola's chin-forward entries all night before finishing with a knee and ground and pound. That fight was a clinic in punishing shorter men who overextend.

Second, the clinch-and-lift game. His signature crotch-lift takedown from the over-under saw Frevola lifted completely airborne with feet dangling. He chains this with inside trips, pulling the trapped leg far behind the base to destroy the stance rather than settle for a scramble.

Third, elbows in transition and on the break. Against Nazim Sadykhov at UFC 323, Ziam delivered what Rogan called a flawless MMA performance. He shut Sadykhov out in round one, took the back with a body triangle, threatened the choke, then in round two threw uppercut-low kick combos before ending it with a pair of crushing elbows as Sadykhov tried to stand. That win showed his real evolution: back control, scrambles, and finishing instinct layered on top of the striking.

Recent form: Ziam won six straight, then dropped a unanimous decision to Tom Nolan in June 2026. That is a meaningful data point, not a nitpick.

Fares Ziam's Technical Vulnerabilities

Height-dependent grappling. Against Tom Nolan, a similarly tall opponent, Ziam tried the crotch-lift in round one and could not get Nolan off the floor. His signature technique evaporates against fighters his own size, and he only found grappling success in round three by switching to trip-based entries.

Striking looks compromised versus tall or rangy men. The Nolan analysis flagged that Ziam's height has insulated his defensive striking for years. Against a same-sized opponent, the first two rounds were messy and he looked ordinary on the feet.

Balance on flashy techniques. In round two against Nolan, Ziam attempted a spinning elbow out of the clinch, missed, tripped over himself, and handed Nolan free top position. The same risk showed in earlier fights.

Early explosive pressure and wrestling. Terrance McKinney blitzed him and submitted him by rear-naked choke in 2:11 in 2022, exploiting his slow starts and scramble-to-back-give-up tendency. Vendramini also hurt him badly and dropped him in round three of their fight.

Axel Sola's Breakdown

Sola is a 12-1 southpaw who fights from a bladed karate stance out of Boxing Squad in France. He is the former ARES FC lightweight champion and has real dynamite in unorthodox strikes.

His best weapon is spinning offense. Against Mason Jones in March 2026, Sola dropped Jones early in round one with a flush spinning back elbow set up from his southpaw blade. He also mixes in fast rear kicks to body and head, a sharp step-in 1-2 from the back foot, and functional wrestling, landing three of seven takedowns in that fight.

He rebounded from the Jones loss by submitting Ismael Bonfim in July 2026, which showed his grappling has teeth and he can win when his striking is not carrying him. His welterweight KO of Rhys McKee in September 2025 announced his power.

Axel Sola's Technical Vulnerabilities

Cardio is the glaring hole. Against Mason Jones, Sola faded hard in rounds two and three. Jones landed 61 strikes in round three alone while Sola went into survival mode after eating a head kick to open the frame. He was out-struck 110 to 65 in significant strikes. This is the defining flaw.

He gets hit and cut. Sola left the Jones fight covered in blood with at least three cuts. His significant strike defense sat around 61 percent, and his recent striking absorbed numbers are high. His head strikes absorbed per minute (3.4 recent) dwarf Ziam's stingy 0.71.

Fails to capitalize when hurting opponents. He dropped Jones and could not close. Jones said there was fear in Sola's eyes at the end of round one. That inability to finish let Jones climb back and take over.

Cage positioning under pressure. Jones pinned Sola to the fence in the closing minutes and overwhelmed him with knees and flurries.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a favorable stylistic clash for Ziam.

Ziam's length and jab exploit Sola's biggest weakness: absorbing damage and fading. Ziam absorbs just 0.65 head strikes per minute and has never been knocked down in the UFC. Sola needs to land clean early spinning strikes to change the fight, but Ziam's disciplined range control and offline movement after counters are exactly what neutralize spinning attacks. Recall how Ziam stepped offline repeatedly against Frevola after countering. That footwork makes spinning entries a coinflip for Sola.

Sola's real danger is the early spinning back elbow and his takedown mixing. Ziam's takedown defense has historically been suspect. Puelles took him down seven times and McKinney finished him off a scramble. If Sola can drop Ziam early or catch him with a spinning strike in the opening minutes, that mirrors the McKinney blueprint that beat Ziam.

But here is the key: Sola is not a Khabib-style pressure grappler. He is a fader. Ziam only needs to survive the first round, then his conditioning and volume take over exactly when Sola historically collapses. The Vendramini fight showed Ziam can weather an early storm and bank rounds; the Sadykhov fight showed he can now finish when a fading opponent is in front of him.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: This is Sola's window. His spinning back elbow and karate blitzes are most dangerous while he is fresh. Ziam tends to start slow, as McKinney and Vendramini exposed. Expect Sola to load up early and hunt the highlight.

Mid-fight: If Ziam survives round one clean, the tide turns. Sola faded badly against Jones by round two, and Ziam's jab, leg kicks, and clinch elbows should start piling up. This is where Ziam's crotch-lift becomes viable too, since Sola is not the height problem Nolan was; Ziam has a reach and frame edge here.

Championship rounds: Not applicable at three rounds, but round three heavily favors Ziam. Sola went into survival mode in round three against Jones. Ziam's uppercut-low kick pressure and finishing elbows, like the sequence that ended Sadykhov, could produce a late stoppage against an exhausted Sola.

Analysis and Key Points

• Cardio gulf is decisive. Sola fades hard by round two. Ziam's late-fight surges against Sadykhov and his survival-and-bank approach versus Vendramini fit perfectly against a fading opponent.
• Defensive contrast. Ziam absorbs 0.65 head strikes per minute and has never been dropped in the UFC. Sola eats 3.4 and got picked apart late by Jones.
• Early spinning danger is real. Sola's spinning back elbow dropped Jones. Ziam's slow starts, as McKinney showed, mean round one is live for the upset.
• Takedown caution. Ziam's takedown defense remains a weak point, but Sola is not the grind-you-out wrestler who historically beats him.
• Recent loss for both. Ziam lost to Nolan; Sola lost to Jones. But Ziam's loss came from a size mismatch that Sola does not present, while Sola's loss came from the exact cardio flaw Ziam can exploit.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds was the biggest driver, increasing the model's score by 6.0, reflecting Ziam's status as the -150 favorite.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, backing Ziam's strong recent run despite the Nolan loss.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 2.0 and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added another 2.0, capturing Ziam's clear edge in landing meaningful strikes while Sola posts negative differentials.
• striking_defense_percentage added 1.0, rewarding Ziam's stingy defensive numbers against Sola's hittability.

Every other feature, including trueskill, reach, and takedown metrics, moved the needle zero. The pick rests on odds, recent winning, striking impact, and defense.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong but imperfect record on Ziam. It correctly called his wins over Sadykhov, Davis, Frevola, Puelles, and Herbert. It missed on the Nolan fight, predicting Ziam at 0.75 when he lost. That miss is the caution flag, and it came against a tall opponent, which Sola is not.

On Sola, the model is thin and shaky. It has only two logged predictions, and it went against him both times, correctly picking Jones and incorrectly picking Bonfim over him. Limited history on Sola means slightly more uncertainty, but the model's read on Ziam's profile is well supported.

Conclusion

Sola carries real one-shot danger in the opening minutes with that spinning back elbow, and Ziam's slow starts keep round one live. But the math and the tape point one way. Sola fades, gets hit, and cannot finish, while Ziam is the sharper defensive striker, the better-conditioned fighter, and now a proven finisher of tired men. Weather the early storm, then break him late. WolfTicketsAI backs Fares Ziam with a confidence score of 9, and the case is sound.

Analysis: Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michael Page to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
Michael Page: -160
Nursulton Ruziboev: +130

Michael Page's Breakdown

MVP is one of the most unorthodox strikers in the sport, and at middleweight he brings a 79-inch reach and a karate-based long stance that lets him fight at ranges opponents hate. His game is built on evasive movement and committed counters. Against Shara Magomedov in February 2025, he ran a clinic in distance control. He baited Magomedov's low kicks by presenting his lead leg, pulling it back at the last moment, then firing a counter right straight down the pipe. Every time Magomedov tried his signature knee-feint into low kick, Page let it land harmless and cracked him in the face. Magomedov had no answer for two full rounds.

His signature techniques you can count on:

• Lunging right hand with foot trap. Page commits fully on his blitz, falling into opponents and planting his foot behind theirs to push them over. This is exactly how he scored the Round 2 knockdown against Jared Cannonier in August 2025, hitting him twice then dumping him over the leg.
• Slip-and-pivot exits. It's one thing to slip a punch, it's another to slip and pivot out to a new angle. Page did this beautifully in Round 3 against Cannonier to control distance and avoid damage.
• Intercepting counter straight. Against Kevin Holland in March 2024, Page timed Holland's forward linear movement with jumping intercepting straights that scored knockdowns and broke his rhythm.

His technical evolution is real. Compared to his Bellator days, Page now shows more patience as a counter-puncher, drawing opponents in before firing, and he uses the clinch as a transitional reset tool rather than purely defensively. That said, his fundamental approach has not changed much, and neither have his holes.

Michael Page's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Bottom-position helplessness. This is the big one. Against Cannonier, once he got taken down late, it was half guard to mount over and over. Page could not get up, could not scramble, could not create a single threat. Same story in his Bellator fight with Douglas Lima, where he just held wrists from closed guard. He offers nothing off his back.
• Pressure and cage-cutting. Page thrives in open space but can be cornered. Ian Machado Garry beat him in June 2024 by closing distance, mixing in level changes, and neutralizing MVP's distance game. Once his rhythm was disrupted, Page had no plan B.
• Static stance switches. Against Magomedov in Round 2, Page occasionally switched stances directly in front of his opponent with his feet coming together, opening a window for straight shots. A sharper striker punishes that.
• Low activity output. Page loves to showboat and coast, doing a couple good things then dancing to run down the clock. Against a fighter who can steal rounds with volume or takedowns, this passivity is dangerous.

Nursulton Ruziboev's Breakdown

Ruziboev is a 6'3" middleweight with heavy hands, judo-based clinch work, and a nasty finishing instinct. He owns a 37-9-2 record and mixes striking with real grappling. His June 2026 win over Andrey Pulyaev came by first-round submission, and before that he outgrappled Dustin Stoltzfus in May 2025 for a decision that showcased his full toolkit.

His signature techniques:

• Counter right straight down the center. Against Brunno Ferreira in 2023, Ruziboev caught a naked low kick and fired a perfect straight right down the pipe that put Ferreira out cold in under a minute. This is his money shot, especially against fighters who kick without setups.
• Kick-catch to takedown. Against Stoltzfus, he trapped a leg kick around the 3:45 mark of Round 1, elevated it between his forearms, and drove forward for the takedown. He turns opponent kicks into ground time.
• Judo clinch and back take. The Stoltzfus finish showed his chain-grappling: 1-2 to the fence, left hook to the body, duck behind, double underhooks, dump to the mat, then back control into the rear-naked choke. He adjusts mid-scramble, which is how he corrected his choking arm after Stoltzfus first defended.
• Right hand to left hook swarm. Against Eric McConico in February 2025, his right hand dropped McConico in Round 2, and he swarmed along the cage for the TKO.

His evolution has been toward more measured striking, better body-work, and improved patience in ground-and-pound from the back.

Nursulton Ruziboev's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Exaggerated head position on power entries. This cost him against Joaquin Buckley in May 2024. When Ruziboev leaned forward committing to his wide looping right, Buckley timed clean counter left hooks over and over in Round 1. Page's entire game is built on countering exactly that kind of forward-committed entry.
• Hands drop after combinations. Against Stoltzfus he stayed in the pocket with a lowered guard after landing, and even against McConico there's a tendency to reset with the chin high. Page's intercepting straight lives in those windows.
• Takedown-defense gaps on forward-weighted entries. Buckley repeatedly timed double legs as Ruziboev overcommitted. This matters less against Page, who does not wrestle, but it shows his balance can be compromised when he blitzes.
• Predictable stance-switch timing. He switches stances after his power hand at readable moments, which a timing-based counter striker can exploit.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight is a chess match of two counter-strikers, but the technical details favor Page.

Ruziboev's biggest weapon, the committed right hand with a forward head lean, walks straight into Page's best tool. Look at how Buckley punished that exact entry with counter hooks. Page is an even more precise, more evasive counter-puncher than Buckley. When Ruziboev leans in on his power shot, Page's intercepting straight and slip-pivot exits are tailor-made to make him pay, much like he did against the forward-moving Kevin Holland.

Ruziboev's kick game is also a trap against Page. MVP baits low kicks for a living, as Magomedov learned. If Ruziboev throws naked kicks, Page pulls the leg and counters. If Ruziboev tries the kick-catch takedown, he first has to close range into MVP's counters, and MVP's clinch-and-shove reset is designed to break exactly those entries.

The path for Ruziboev is clear and real: get Page to the fence, use judo trips or the duck-under he hit on Stoltzfus, and drag this into the grappling phase. Page off his back is helpless, as Cannonier and Lima both proved. If Ruziboev can replicate his Stoltzfus sequence and put Page on the mat, he can win rounds or even find the submission.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Page should own the distance. His footwork, reach, and counter timing let him pot-shot Ruziboev's entries the way he frustrated Magomedov. Expect Ruziboev to eat counters if he leads with power shots.
• Mid-fight adjustments: The key question is whether Ruziboev abandons the striking battle and commits to the clinch and takedowns. Against Buckley he hesitated after getting countered, which only made him more vulnerable. If he hesitates against Page, he loses the striking rounds. If he commits to grappling entries, this gets dangerous for MVP.
• Later rounds: Page's cardio and coasting habits are a risk. He tends to bank early work then showboat. If Ruziboev is fresh and starts cutting the cage late, MVP's ground vulnerability could surface exactly the way it did against Cannonier in the championship-adjacent later frames.

Analysis and Key Points

• Page's counter timing vs Ruziboev's forward lean is the defining clash. Buckley showed the blueprint with counter hooks in Round 1; Page is a sharper counter striker than Buckley.
• Ruziboev's only reliable path is the grappling phase. The Stoltzfus duck-under to back take is the exact sequence that could beat Page, who could not escape Cannonier or Lima off his back.
• Ruziboev must close distance to grapple, and closing distance is where Page counters best. That is the puzzle he has to solve.
• Kick-heavy offense plays into Page's hands. Magomedov and Ferreira both learned this the hard way.
• Warning: Ruziboev is a legit finisher with 6'3" frame and heavy hands. Page has been dropped and taken down before (Holland's back body lock in Round 2), so one clean shot or one committed level change changes everything.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Page with a modest confidence score of 11, and the SHAP features tell you why it is close but leans MVP:

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 7.0 to the score. Page is the -160 favorite, and the market backs him.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0. Both men are hot, but Page is riding a strong recent run.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each added 1.0, reflecting the quality of Page's landed strikes.
• reach added 1.0. That 79-inch span over Ruziboev's 76 matters for MVP's range game.
• striking_defense_percentage and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each added 1.0, backing Page's superior evasive defense.

Every other feature, including trueskill, win-streak difference, and the takedown metrics, moved the needle by zero. The pick rests on odds, recent form, reach, and Page's striking defense edge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on both men. It went 2-for-2 correctly picking Page to win over Sam Patterson and Cannonier, though it whiffed picking against him versus Magomedov. On Ruziboev, the model is essentially perfect, nailing his wins over Pulyaev, Stoltzfus, and Dumas, and correctly calling his loss to Buckley. That Buckley call is the caution flag here: the model saw the exact counter-striker-plus-wrestling recipe that beats Ruziboev, and it favored the counter striker. Page is that counter striker. But note the model was also wrong once on Page (Magomedov), so a score of 11 is thin confidence, not a lock.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Michael Page, and the technical case holds up. Ruziboev's forward-leaning power entries and kick-heavy offense feed directly into MVP's counter game, the same way Buckley exploited those entries and the same way Magomedov's kicks got eaten alive. Page's reach, footwork, and counter timing should carry the striking exchanges. The live danger is real: if Ruziboev commits to his judo clinch and back-take game the way he did against Stoltzfus, Page's helpless bottom position could flip this fast. But by a narrow margin, the pick is Michael Page.

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Analysis: Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniil Donchenko to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Daniil Donchenko: -245
Punahele Soriano: +200

Daniil Donchenko's Breakdown

Donchenko rolls into this one riding real momentum. He's 15-2 overall and has looked sharp in his recent UFC run, most notably wrecking Theodor Berggren by KO/TKO in June 2026 and out-pointing veteran gatekeeper Alex Morono by unanimous decision earlier that year. The Morono fight told you plenty about his fight IQ. Morono showed up with a strapped, injured knee, and Donchenko sniffed out the tell immediately, chopping at that leg with repeated low kicks until Morono could barely stand by the end of round one. That's a guy who hunts for the weak spot and hammers it without hesitation.

His signature weapons:

• Leg kick pressure. He lands 2.49 leg kicks per minute while absorbing almost nothing (0.076 per minute). Against Morono he turned the lead leg into a liability in a single round. Soriano throws almost no leg kicks himself (0.10 landed per minute) and absorbs 0.46 per minute, so this is a clean lane for Donchenko.
• Volume striking with impact. He lands 8.06 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy. His striking impact differential of 54 and significant striking impact differential of 45.6 are massive numbers. He hits harder and more often than the men across from him, and the SHAP data confirms this is a core reason for the model's lean.
• Head-hunting output when the finish is there. The Berggren KO shows he closes the show when an opponent's structure breaks. His knockdowns-per-fight number (2.30) is elite and points to genuine stopping power.

Technically, the recent film shows a fighter blending in more wrestling. His recent takedowns attempted jumped to 5.19 per fight from a career 1.72, so he's added a layer of takedown threat to keep opponents honest.

Daniil Donchenko's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Thin takedown defense. His takedown defense ratio sits at just 0.33. That is a flashing warning light against Soriano, who is a legitimate wrestler when he chooses to use it. Soriano stuffed Baeza's grappling and buried Todorovic with clinch-to-takedown chains. If Donchenko gets planted, his whole leg-kick and volume game stalls.
• Head strikes absorbed. He eats 2.26 head strikes per minute. He's not untouchable, and Soriano only needs one clean overhand left to change the night. Donchenko has not faced a one-shot southpaw finisher of Soriano's caliber recently.
• Finishing lapses. Against Morono he dominated early but couldn't close, letting a badly hurt opponent survive to the final bell. If he leaves Soriano breathing, that's exactly the kind of window Soriano exploited to flatten Medic.

Punahele Soriano's Breakdown

Soriano is 13-4 and enters on a three-fight win streak (Brahimaj, Veretennikov, Medic), all at welterweight. He's a power-punching southpaw whose entire framework orbits the overhand left. The Medic KO in January 2025 was pure Soriano, closing distance and dropping the hammer the moment Medic retreated in a straight line with his chin up.

His signature weapons:

• Overhand left. His money shot. It flattened Lungiambula (with an uppercut assist) and remains his highest-percentage path to victory. Against orthodox Donchenko, the open-side geometry actually favors that left hand.
• Wrestling when he commits. Against Baeza he controlled top position, shrugged off 50/50 leg-lock attempts, and piled on ground and pound. Against Todorovic he chained clinch work into takedowns for a first-round finish. His recent takedowns attempted (3.63 per fight) and strong takedown defense (1.53 recent ratio) show a real grappling base. This is his best route given Donchenko's 33% takedown defense.
• Toughness and pace management. He weathered Allen's pressure and out-worked him over three rounds.

Recent evolution: he's leaning on wrestling and decisions more than the reckless knockout hunt. Two straight decisions before the Medic KO suggests a more measured Soriano.

Punahele Soriano's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensive collapse in combinations. After his jab, Soriano sprints forward chin-up and abandons his stance. Kopylov punished this exact habit, spiking him with a high-elbow guard and finishing with a liver kick in round two. Donchenko's volume and leg kicks feast on fighters who overextend.
• Cardio fade. His gas tank has betrayed him repeatedly. Kopylov finished him late as he wilted, and Maximov out-wrestled him into round three. Donchenko's relentless output (10.28 recent strikes landed per minute) is built to drown a fading Soriano.
• Predictable single-weapon offense. When opponents solve the overhand left, Soriano has no plan B. His significant striking defense percentage is a leaky 0.47, meaning he gets hit clean often. Donchenko lands 62% of his significant strikes and will find that chin.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Donchenko's leg kicks are the perfect answer to a stationary southpaw who throws almost no kicks and absorbs them freely. Picture the Morono treatment, chopping the base out from under Soriano while staying out of overhand range. Donchenko's volume and 62% accuracy also target the exact defensive gap Kopylov exploited, that chin-up sprint after the jab.

Soriano's cleanest path is the Maximov blueprint: use the overhand left as a threat, then close and wrestle. Donchenko's 33% takedown defense is the one place Soriano can drag this into deep water. But Soriano has to commit early before the leg damage saps his own explosiveness, and he historically defaults back to head-hunting instead of grinding.

The Kopylov fight is the cautionary tale that fits best here. A varied, accurate striker who managed distance and attacked the body picked Soriano apart and finished him as he faded. Donchenko is that kind of striker.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Donchenko establishes leg kicks and volume. Soriano's biggest danger window is right here, when he's fresh and the overhand left carries the most snap. If he lands clean early, the model's edge evaporates.
• Mid-fight: As leg kicks accumulate and Soriano's output drops, Donchenko's pace takes over. This is where Kopylov and Maximov both pulled away.
• Late: Soriano's cardio history is grim. If this reaches round three, Donchenko's engine and accuracy should compound, mirroring how Soriano wilted against Kopylov.

Analysis and Key Points

• Leg kick mismatch: Donchenko lands 2.49 per minute; Soriano throws 0.10 and absorbs 0.46. Same recipe that crippled Morono.
• Cardio warning on Soriano: He faded and got stopped by Kopylov and out-worked by Maximov. Donchenko's volume punishes tired fighters.
• Overhand left is real: Soriano flatlined Medic in one round. Donchenko absorbs 2.26 head strikes per minute, so he cannot get careless.
• KO caution both ways: Soriano was recently KO'd by Kopylov but also owns a recent KO over Medic. He can end it or get ended.
• Takedown battle is the swing factor: Donchenko's 33% takedown defense is the one lever Soriano can pull. Expect him to shoot when the leg kicks start piling up.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's numbers all point Donchenko's way, though the modest score of 25 signals a competitive fight.

• odds was the biggest mover, adding 13 points. Donchenko as a -245 favorite carries real market weight.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 6, reflecting Donchenko's far superior power-per-shot numbers.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2, both flagging Donchenko's tighter defense versus Soriano's leaky 0.47.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_win_perc each added 2, rewarding Donchenko's clean recent run.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight each added 1.

No features pulled the score down in any meaningful way, which is why the pick lands squarely on Donchenko.

Past Model Performance

The model is a perfect 1-for-1 on Donchenko, nailing the Morono decision at 0.78. Small sample, but a clean one.

Soriano is a different story and demands caution. The model has been wrong about him repeatedly, missing on Medic (predicted his opponent, Soriano won by KO), Baeza, Stoltzfus, Kopylov, and Maximov. It has only cashed on him against Veretennikov and Lungiambula. Soriano is a volatile fighter the model has struggled to read, which is a real risk flag even when he's the underdog here.

Conclusion

Donchenko has the tools that map perfectly onto Soriano's flaws: leg kicks against a man who won't check them, volume and accuracy against a chin-up combination puncher, and a pace built to exploit Soriano's shaky cardio. The overhand left and the wrestling give Soriano live puncher's and grappler's chances, so keep the KO caution in mind. But WolfTicketsAI is riding with Daniil Donchenko, and the film and the numbers both back the call.

Analysis: Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kurtis Campbell to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Kurtis Campbell: -380
Trevor Peek: +300

Kurtis Campbell's Breakdown

Kurtis Campbell comes into this one as the betting favorite, and it is the wrestling that carries his case. His numbers tell the story loud and clear. He attempts a massive 13.6 takedowns per fight and lands 5.4 of them. That is a volume grappler who wants to drag the fight to the mat early and keep it there. When you pair those numbers with a 72 inch reach and a decent 44 percent striking defense, you get a fighter who wants to control range, level change, and grind.

His signature weapon is the relentless takedown chain. At 13.6 attempts per fight he does not fire one shot and quit. He keeps chaining entries, mixing reactive doubles off the fence with re-shots when the first is stuffed. That kind of pressure grappling is the exact recipe to break a brawler who would rather stand and trade.

His striking output differential sits positive at plus 9 significant, meaning he throws more than he eats even if his power is modest with a striking impact differential of minus 3. In other words, he wins rounds with volume and control, not knockouts. He has zero knockdowns per fight, so do not expect the highlight finish. He wants the decision.

The clear warning here is his last outing. Campbell got stopped by Danny Silva by KO/TKO on 2026-03-21. That is a recent knockout loss, and it flags a real durability question. If he cannot get Peek down, he is stepping into the pocket with one of the harder hitters at the weight.

Kurtis Campbell's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Zero takedown defense on record. His takedown defense ratio sits at 0.0000. If Peek stuffs the initial shot and forces Campbell to strike, Campbell has shown nothing defensively when the grappling tables turn. Peek defends takedowns at a strong 88 percent, so this matters.
• Recent KO loss exposes the chin. The Danny Silva stoppage is the glaring red flag. Peek is a knockdown machine at 0.46 per fight. A fighter freshly finished by strikes walking into a pressure puncher is the exact heuristic warning you do not ignore.
• Modest power and negative impact differential. With a striking impact differential of minus 3, Campbell does not hurt people standing. If his takedowns stall, he has no equalizer on the feet, and the fight becomes a firefight he is not built to win.

Trevor Peek's Breakdown

Trevor Peek is the brawler in this equation. He is the chaos merchant who marches forward, throws heavy leather, and dares you to keep up. Against Erick Gonzalez in February 2023 he won by KO/TKO using downright bizarre offense, including flailing standing hammer fists that had no business landing but did. That fight showed both his unorthodox striking and his resilience, since Gonzalez took him down but could not keep him there.

His signature is volume pressure striking. Peek posts 4.98 strikes landed per minute and a huge significant striking output differential of plus 21.6. He drowns opponents in output and cracks them with a 0.46 knockdown rate. That is real, fight-ending power that Campbell simply does not carry.

His second key trait is grappling resilience and takedown defense. He sits at 88 percent takedown defense on the full record and near 80 percent recently. Even when he gets put down, the film shows him popping right back up, exactly what happened against Gonzalez. Against a one-dimensional takedown machine, that is the trait that could ruin Campbell's entire gameplan.

But here is the honest read on his form. Peek has lost three of his last four, dropping decisions to Yanal Ashmouz, Charlie Campbell, and Chepe Mariscal. His recent win percentage is a grim 0.33. That downward trend is real and it is the heuristic that keeps this from being a clean pick against a favorite.

Trevor Peek's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Loses to technical opponents who out-point him. Peek dropped unanimous decisions to Charlie Campbell (April 2024), Yanal Ashmouz (September 2024), and Chepe Mariscal (June 2023). The pattern is clear. When a fighter stays disciplined and does not brawl on Peek's terms, Peek gets out-worked over 15 minutes. Kurtis Campbell's grind-and-control style fits that mold.
• Weak striking defense. Peek absorbs a lot. His striking defense percentage is a low 0.365 and his recent number is worse at 0.348. He eats shots because he trades. Campbell's volume, plus 9 significant output differential, can bank points in the exchanges even without power.
• Takedown susceptibility over time. The Gonzalez fight noted he was taken down "effortlessly." He gets back up, but a wrestler who attempts 13-plus takedowns a fight can rack up control time and scorecard damage even if Peek keeps standing.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus brawler in its purest form. Campbell wants to level change, chain takedowns, and win boring. Peek wants to turn it into a phone booth war and land the one shot that ends nights.

The key question is Peek's 88 percent takedown defense against Campbell's 0 percent proven ability to defend a return. If Peek stuffs shots the way he did fragments against Gonzalez, Campbell has no plan B and gets dragged into striking exchanges where his minus 3 impact differential is a losing hand. That is the +300 dog path.

But the model leans the other way for good reason. The fighters who beat Peek, Charlie Campbell and Yanal Ashmouz, did it by staying composed and forcing Peek to fight a fight he could not brawl his way out of. Kurtis Campbell's 13.6 takedown attempts per fight is a much more suffocating version of that discipline. If he can get Peek to the mat even a third of the time, he banks control minutes Peek's opponents have historically used to steal decisions.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Peek is most dangerous here. His power and forward pressure are freshest, and Campbell's recent KO loss means the opening five minutes are the danger zone. Campbell must shoot early and often to avoid the pocket.
• Mid-fight: If Campbell survives the first and starts landing takedowns, the fight tilts. Peek's opponents in his three recent losses all found success by round two once the brawl was neutralized. Campbell's volume grind should start banking rounds here.
• Late rounds: Peek's recent 0.33 win rate and repeated decision losses suggest he fades on the cards when he cannot finish. If this reaches the third with Campbell still shooting, the wrestler pulls ahead the way Ashmouz and Charlie Campbell did.

Analysis and Key Points

• Campbell's 13.6 takedown attempts per fight is the engine of the pick. It mirrors how Charlie Campbell and Ashmouz out-worked Peek to decisions.
• Peek's 88 percent takedown defense is the live threat. Against a grappler with 0 percent proven takedown defense of his own, one stuffed shot can flip momentum.
• Warning: Campbell was just KO'd by Danny Silva. Peek's 0.46 knockdowns per fight makes an early finish a genuine risk.
• Warning: Peek has lost three of his last four with a 0.33 recent win rate. The downward trend is real and it is why this is a low-confidence pick.
• Peek's low striking defense (0.365) means Campbell can score in exchanges even without power.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Campbell at a modest score of 25, and the SHAP breakdown shows why it is thin:

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 18.0 points. The market has Campbell at -380, and the model respects that heavily.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_field added 5.0. Campbell's massive takedown volume is the second pillar.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, reflecting Campbell's 0.89 recent rate against Peek's collapsing 0.33.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, reach, and striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.0.

Notably, no features pushed the number down in any meaningful way, yet the final score is still just 25. That tells you the model sees a favorite but not a safe one.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history on Kurtis Campbell, so there is real uncertainty on how the model reads him. On Trevor Peek the record is split. The model correctly called his loss to Charlie Campbell in April 2024, but it wrongly backed Peek to beat Yanal Ashmouz in September 2024 at a 0.62 score. That miss is a caution flag, since the model has overrated Peek before. This time it is fading him, which fits his recent form better.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Kurtis Campbell, and the logic holds. Peek is a fading brawler who loses to disciplined, high-volume opponents, and Campbell's relentless takedown attempts are exactly that kind of kryptonite. The pick comes with a real warning label given Campbell's fresh KO loss and Peek's live power, which is why the confidence sits at just 25. But the path is clear. If Campbell shoots early and grinds, he out-works Peek the same way Charlie Campbell and Ashmouz already did. Take Kurtis Campbell to win, but do not bet the house.

Analysis: Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Losene Keita to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Losene Keita: -360
Muhammad Naimov: +280

Losene Keita's Breakdown

Here's the problem you run into with Keita right away. He's a big betting favorite at -360, and WolfTicketsAI still only gives him a confidence score of 25. That gap tells you something. Keita walks in with a gaudy 16-2 record, but his UFC book is thin. His only listed Octagon appearance is a split decision loss to Nathaniel Wood on 2026-03-21 at featherweight. That's the sample we have to work with, and it's a loss.

From that Wood fight, the stat picture paints a fighter who leans on his boxing at range. He lands 2.4 head strikes per minute and mixes in body work at 0.87 per minute, which shows he's willing to go downstairs. His striking accuracy sits at 43.7 percent, and his 62 percent striking defense is respectable. His signature strengths look like this:

• Head-hunting boxing at distance. Against Wood he pumped volume upstairs, throwing 6.7 head strikes attempted per minute. That's a busy jab-cross rhythm meant to bank points on the cards.
• Body investment behind the boxing. His body strikes absorbed number is tiny at 0.13 per minute, meaning he protects his own midsection while digging to the opponent's. That's a sign of clean defensive shell mechanics.
• A perfect takedown defense mark in his UFC look. He stuffed everything Wood offered, posting a 1.00 takedown defense ratio.

The technical evolution here is hard to gauge with one UFC fight on record. What you can say is that against a slick veteran like Wood, Keita hung tough and lost a razor-thin split. He didn't get blown out.

Losene Keita's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Zero offensive wrestling on tape. Keita shows 0.0 takedowns and 0.0 takedown attempts per fight in his UFC data. He is a pure striker who does not threaten the level change. Against a fighter like Naimov who chains boxing into clinch takedowns, that means Keita has to win every exchange on the feet or defend grappling all night.
• Leg kick absorption is alarming. He's eating 2.2 leg kicks per minute while landing only 0.2 himself. Wood chopped at him freely. Naimov throws taekwondo-based low kicks and even set up his liver kick off stance switches against Kaan Ofli in Round 1. That inside leg attack is a real avenue against Keita.
• Negative output differentials. His average striking output differential sits at -59 and his impact differential at -15. In plain terms, he got outlanded and out-impacted in his UFC showing. Against a volume-and-pressure guy, that's a warning sign he can be outworked over 15 minutes.

Heuristic warning: Keita has fewer than 2 UFC fights on record. Treat this prediction with reduced certainty. The model has never predicted a Keita fight before, so there is no track record to lean on.

Muhammad Naimov's Breakdown

Naimov is the more proven Octagon fighter, sitting at 13-4 overall and roughly 5-2 in the UFC across the fights listed. He's the underdog on paper at +280, but his TrueSkill number of 32.08 towers over Keita's baseline 25.0, and that's not a small thing.

Naimov, nicknamed "Hillman," is a taekwondo-rooted striker who blends creative kicks with clinch-heavy grappling. His signature tools:

• The spinning and creative kick game. Against Bogdan Grad in Round 1 on 2025-06-21, he nearly ended the night with a spinning hook kick about 90 seconds in. Against Kaan Ofli he opened Round 3 with a spinning wheel kick and had already cracked Ofli with a crushing body kick and a liver kick off a stance switch in Round 1. That taekwondo unpredictability is his calling card.
• Boxing-into-clinch takedown chains. He averages 1.79 takedowns per fight on 5.18 attempts. Against Ofli he repeatedly boxed into tie-ups, reversed the fence position, and hit a takedown into side control in Round 2, then took the back with a body triangle in Round 3 hunting the rear-naked choke.
• Counter power and a granite chin. Against Jamie Mullarkey he was being manhandled, then timed Mullarkey squaring up on a naked entry and starched him with a counter right for the KO. He also ate a clean Ofli uppercut on the jaw and walked through it.

Technical evolution: his win over Ofli showed genuinely improved grappling composure and top control, and against Grad he handled adversity and reversed a bad wrestling exchange in Round 3. He's rounded out from the pure striker who beat Mullarkey.

Muhammad Naimov's Technical Vulnerabilities

• He just got knocked out. On 2025-12-06 Mairon Santos put him away with a 1-2 in Round 3. That is the most recent data point we have on Naimov, and it matters.
• Vulnerable to clean boxing combinations. The Santos KO came off a basic jab-cross. His significant striking defense sits at just 44.7 percent, and he absorbs strikes at a real clip. A crisp boxer who stays disciplined at range can find his chin.
• He can't always finish or dominate rounds. Against Grad he hurt his man early and let him recover via takedown, then dropped Round 2. Against Ofli he had back control for three minutes and couldn't finish the choke. He can be outworked in stretches, and two of his losses came by decision.

Heuristic warning: Naimov was knocked out in his most recent fight by a 1-2 combination. If Keita's head-hunting boxing lands clean, the same finish is on the table. This is the single most important read in the fight.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker-versus-hybrid-grappler puzzle, and it cuts both directions.

• What Keita can exploit: Naimov's chin was just cracked by exactly the tool Keita leans on, straight boxing down the pipe. Keita throws high head volume at 6.7 attempts per minute. If he keeps range and pumps the 1-2, he's aiming right at Naimov's proven vulnerability. Santos showed the blueprint in Round 3, and Nathaniel Wood also "dinged him with punches on the feet" back in 2023.
• What Naimov can exploit: Keita offers zero takedown threat and eats leg kicks at 2.2 per minute. Naimov's whole game against Ofli and Grad was boxing into the clinch, dragging fights to the fence, and scoring takedowns. Keita has never shown offensive wrestling and his output differential is deeply negative. If Naimov turns this into a grappling and clinch grind, Keita has no tape proving he can reverse it.
• Historical parallel: Look at how Felipe Lima and Nathaniel Wood handled Naimov by keeping tight structure and mixing wrestling. Now flip it. Keita is more of a pure boxer with no wrestling, which is closer to the profile of a fighter Naimov can drag down. But Keita also has the exact striking weapon that just finished Naimov. The fight lives in that tension.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Naimov to open with flash, a spinning kick or a body kick, the way he did against both Grad and Ofli. Keita will want to plant his feet and box. Watch the leg kicks early; if Naimov chops the lead leg like Wood did to Keita, Keita's range game degrades fast.
• Mid-fight: This is where Naimov historically shifts to the clinch and fence wrestling. Against Ofli he reversed positions repeatedly and scored the Round 2 takedown. If Keita can't stuff those entries the way he stuffed Wood's, the fight tilts toward Naimov's cardio and volume.
• Late rounds: Naimov has gone the distance and controlled championship-style stretches on the mat, but he's also failed to finish hurt men. Keita's negative output differential suggests he may fade in volume battles. But remember, Naimov's chin cracked late against Santos in Round 3. If this is close and standing in the third, Keita's boxing is live for a finish.

Analysis and Key Points

• Naimov was just KO'd by a 1-2, and Keita is a boxing-first head-hunter. That is the fight's central threat and the reason Keita is favored.
• Keita has no offensive wrestling on tape, while Naimov chains boxing into clinch takedowns, as he did repeatedly against Ofli. This is Naimov's clearest path.
• Keita absorbs 2.2 leg kicks per minute. Naimov's taekwondo kick arsenal, spinning hook kick on Grad, wheel kick and liver kick on Ofli, can attack that base.
• Keita's UFC sample is one fight, a loss to Wood. Naimov also lost to Wood, but competed several more times, giving him more proven tape.
• Naimov's TrueSkill (32.08) beats Keita's baseline (25.0), yet the odds still favor Keita heavily, which is what dragged the model's confidence down to 25.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data shows a model that leaned on Keita mostly because of the market and a few edges:

• Odds was the biggest mover, adding 16 points. The -360 line is doing the heavy lifting here.
• TrueSkill added 4 points, interesting given Naimov's raw TrueSkill is higher; the model weighs the uncertainty band and matchup context.
• recent_win_perc and striking_defense_percentage each added 3 points, reflecting Keita's 62 percent striking defense edge.
• recent_striking_impact_differential, average_striking_output_differential, recent_average_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight was the one feature that pulled the score down, by 1, and that's Naimov's wrestling threat showing up in the math.

Net result is a confidence score of just 25. The model likes Keita as the pick but is not comfortable, and the odds are carrying most of the weight.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record on Naimov specifically. It correctly called the Santos KO (0.68), the Grad decision (0.58), the Ofli decision (0.68), and the Erik Silva KO (0.65). Its one miss was picking Wood over Naimov back in 2023, which Naimov won. So the model has read Naimov's fights well recently, and notably it correctly predicted his most recent loss by KO.

On Keita, there is no prediction history at all. The model has never called a Keita fight. Combine that blank slate with his single UFC bout, and you should treat the Keita side of this pick as the softer read.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Losene Keita, and the logic is clean even if the confidence is low. Naimov was just knocked out by a straight 1-2, and Keita is a volume boxer who lives behind that exact punch. If Keita keeps range and lands clean, he can repeat what Santos did. But understand the risk: Keita has one UFC fight, it's a loss, he shows no wrestling, and Naimov is the more proven fighter who will look to box into the clinch, chop the legs, and drag this to the mat. The model rides the favorite at a score of 25, which is a lean, not a lock. Back Keita, but respect Naimov's grappling and be ready for it to get ugly if this hits the fence.

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Analysis: Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Felipe Lima to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Morgan Charriere: +160
Felipe Lima: -190

Morgan Charriere's Breakdown

Charriere is a French kickboxer with clean mechanics and a striking pedigree from Cage Warriors. His game runs through kicks and timing rather than raw power. Watch how he sets traps.

Signature techniques:

• Calf kicks to establish range. Against Nate Landwehr in July 2025, he opened with sharp calf kicks that chewed up the lead leg early in rounds 1 and 2. This is his standard opener to slow opponents and dictate distance.
• Step-up body kick into finishing sequences. In his UFC debut against Manolo Zecchini in 2023, he landed a step-up left body kick halfway through round 1 that immediately hurt Zecchini, then followed with more body work and a stutter front kick to close the show. He also uses a half-fake front kick, turning his hips like he's kicking, then pausing before firing the push kick to the gut.
• Counter left hook off clinch exits. Against Gabriel Miranda in 2024, Miranda tried an uchi mata with the overhook. Charriere limp-armed out of the whizzer and cracked a short left hook as Miranda spun into it for the KO. He punishes transition moments.

Technical evolution: Charriere has shown more finishing instinct at the UFC level than he did in Cage Warriors, targeting the body to break opponents down. Against Landwehr, he also proved coachable, coming out in round 3 after corner advice and forcing the stoppage once he committed to volume.

The problem is his last outing. On December 13, 2025 he was starched by Melquizael Costa via first round KO/TKO. That is a serious warning sign for a fighter now stepping back in soon after.

Morgan Charriere's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Output collapses under pressure. Against Landwehr, once the pressure and false entries piled up, Charriere threw less and less, shelling up rather than firing back. Landwehr's feinted entries (stepping in, planting, then pushing back off) drew Charriere into swinging kicks at air and draining his tank.
• Gets timed by counter strikers. Nathaniel Wood dropped him in round 1 in March 2025 by feinting and countering his entries. Charriere had to wrestle his way back to survive that round, and never found urgency after falling behind.
• No fight-stealing urgency when behind. In the Wood fight, he ran forward "flapping" in the final 10 seconds of round 3 without landing anything meaningful. He lacks a single-shot equalizer, so once he's down on the cards he tends to stay down.
• Chin questions. The Costa KO and the Wood knockdown show that clean counters land on him despite his reputation. His recent striking defense percentage sits at 0.4296, which is porous.

Felipe Lima's Breakdown

"Jungle Boy" Lima is a grappling-first fighter with a strong BJJ base and a high submission rate. His path to victory is closing distance and dragging fights to the mat.

Signature techniques:

• Back takes into rear naked choke. Against Muhammad Naimov in June 2024, he scored a round 3 takedown, immediately climbed to the back, and clamped the rear naked choke for the finish and a Performance of the Night bonus. His 0.7273 submissions per fight (recent 1.1746) reflect a genuine finishing threat on the mat.
• High-volume takedown entries. He attempts 8.0 takedowns per fight, chaining shots and clinch entries to wear opponents down. Against Miles Johns in December 2024, he ground out a competitive decision using his wrestling to control.
• Improving clinch work. His recent clinch strikes landed per minute climbed, and his recent significant striking defense sits at a strong 0.7404, showing he's harder to hit clean than his reputation suggests.

Technical evolution: Lima's recent significant striking impact differential is positive at 8.0, and his recent striking defense numbers have jumped. He's tightening up defensively even as his striking output stays low.

Two cautions. Lima is coming off a loss to Payton Talbott in June 2025 by unanimous decision, where his striking limitations showed against a rangier opponent who kept it standing. He's also dropping back down after fighting at bantamweight, so note the weight shift.

Felipe Lima's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking lacks power ("no bonk"). Analysts flatly noted Lima "doesn't have bonk." He has zero knockdowns per fight. If he can't get the fight down, he has little to threaten with standing, which is exactly what happened against Talbott.
• Beatable on the feet by rangier strikers. Talbott kept distance and outpointed him over three rounds. Charriere's calf kicks and body kicks could keep Lima at the end of range and disrupt his entries.
• Low takedown defense. His takedown defense ratio is a rough 0.1667 (recent 0.2261). He can be reversed, and Charriere has shown he can wrestle back to top position, like he did against Chepe Mariscal and to close round 1 versus Wood.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker vs grappler chess match. The key questions:

• Charriere's kicks vs Lima's entries. Charriere's calf kicks and step-up body kicks are perfect tools to punish a fighter who has to close distance. If he lands the body kicks he hurt Zecchini with, he can compromise Lima's shot timing. Lima's flat takedown defense means he must eat some kicks to get inside.
• Lima's takedowns vs Charriere's defense. Here's the catch. Charriere's own takedown defense is dreadful at 0.2000, and he absorbs pressure poorly. Lima attempts a division-leading 8.0 takedowns per fight. If Lima commits to chain wrestling like he did against Naimov, Charriere may not stop enough of them.
• The Landwehr blueprint applied. Lima doesn't have Landwehr's hand speed, but he does have relentless forward intent. Charriere's habit of freezing and lowering output under pressure is exactly the trap Lima wants. The Naimov finish shows what happens once Lima gets to the back.

The historical lesson: Talbott beat Lima by refusing to grapple and keeping range. That's the Charriere path. But Wood and Costa showed Charriere folds when pressured and countered, and Lima's grappling pressure is a different, nastier threat than clean boxing.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Charriere should start fast with calf kicks and body kicks, the same openers that hurt Zecchini and troubled Landwehr early. Expect Lima to shoot early and often to test that 0.2000 takedown defense.
• Mid-fight: If Lima gets Charriere to the mat, the back-take to rear naked choke sequence from the Naimov fight is live. If Charriere stuffs the early shots and starts landing volume, Lima's low output and lack of power leave him falling behind, the exact situation he was in against Talbott.
• Later rounds: Charriere's cardio suffers badly when forced onto the back foot and made to defend. Lima's grappling volume compounds over time. If this hits round 3 with Lima on top, Charriere lacks the urgency and one-shot power to steal it, as the Wood loss proved.

Analysis and Key Points

• Charriere just got KO'd by Costa in round 1. Fresh off a knockout loss, the chin and confidence questions are real.
• Charriere freezes under pressure. Landwehr and Wood both exposed his tendency to lower output and get timed on entries.
• Charriere's takedown defense is a glaring hole at 0.2000. Lima's 8.0 takedown attempts per fight aim right at it.
• Lima's grappling is the difference maker. The Naimov back-take to RNC shows his finishing path.
• Lima's striking is thin. No knockdowns, "no bonk," and he lost to Talbott by staying standing. If Charriere keeps it a kickboxing match at range, he has a live path.
• Weight note: Lima dropping from bantamweight back to featherweight.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Lima but only by a slim score of 12, so this is close.

• Odds were the biggest factor, cutting the score by 9.0, reflecting Lima's heavy -190 favorite status.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 2.0, a nod to Charriere and the fact Lima is coming off a loss.
• striking_impact_differential, recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, average_striking_output_differential, and reach each nudged the score up by 1.0 toward Charriere's side of the ledger.
• recent_significant_striking_output_differential and striking_defense_percentage each pulled the score down by 1.0.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage pushed up by 1.0, reflecting Lima's improved 0.7404 recent defense.

The takeaway: the market and Lima's grappling edge carry the pick, while Charriere's reach and striking differentials keep this from being a blowout on paper.

Past Model Performance

Mixed signals here. On Charriere, WolfTicketsAI has been mostly right, correctly calling the Landwehr win, the Miranda KO, and the Costa loss. But it whiffed on the Wood and Mariscal fights, both times overrating Charriere and both times he lost by decision. That's the exact scenario in play again.

On Lima, the model has struggled. It was wrong on the Talbott fight (predicted Lima, he lost) and wrong on the Johns fight. So the confidence in Lima specifically deserves caution given a 0-for record on him.

Conclusion

Charriere is the cleaner, more dangerous striker at range, and if he fights like he did against Zecchini he can win a kickboxing match. But his takedown defense sits at 0.2000, he freezes under pressure, and he's fresh off a first round knockout. Lima's relentless takedown volume and his back-take to rear naked choke finish give him the tools to drag this into deep water where Charriere has no answers. Take the grappler. WolfTicketsAI sides with Felipe Lima.

Analysis: Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mario Pinto to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Mario Pinto: -305
Ryan Spann: +245

Mario Pinto's Breakdown

Pinto walks in at a perfect 12-0 and he has looked like two different fighters depending on who's across from him. Against Jhonata Diniz in October 2025, he flipped the script on a decorated kickboxer by ignoring the striking battle entirely. He took Diniz down easily in round 1 and mauled him, then repeated the exact same sequence in round 2. That is the blueprint: level change, plant the guy, and grind. His stat sheet backs it up with 9.56 takedowns attempted per fight and a 100 percent takedown defense ratio, which is elite insurance against anyone trying to reverse the position.

But Pinto is not just a wrestler. Against Austen Lane in March 2025, he showed a patient counter-striking side built around a double feint entry. He sold a fake jab, immediately faked the right hand, then shuffle-stepped into range before Lane could reprocess the threat. Once he closed distance, he pinned Lane to the fence and then found the finish in open space with a committed overhand right. That overhand is his money punch, and his 0.50 knockdowns per fight number climbs to 1.53 in recent outings, so the pop is real and trending up.

His signature techniques: - Takedowns against strikers: Easy entries and level changes, shown twice against Diniz who had zero answer off his back. - Double feint shuffle entry into the overhand right: The exact combo that iced Lane in round 2. - Ground control and mauling: Once he lands the takedown, he stays heavy and does damage from top.

Technical evolution: the double feint entry against Lane was a real step up from pure back foot reactivity. He added an intentional way to close distance rather than just waiting. But his core framework of trading rounds of passivity for single decisive shots has not changed.

Mario Pinto's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Extended passivity building momentum deficits: Against Lane, Pinto surrendered most of round 1 and early round 2 sitting in a defensive shell, letting Lane build rhythm unopposed. Against a durable opponent that could cost him rounds on the cards before he ever commits.
• Defensive shell without counters: He blocks well but rarely makes opponents pay for pressing forward. His striking defense percentage sits at just 0.4565, meaning he eats more than he should. He absorbs 1.89 head strikes per minute recently, so he is hittable when he chooses to stand.
• Limited offensive variety outside the overhand: His body attack is nearly nonexistent (0.27 body strikes landed per minute) and his kicking game is thin. If a durable opponent survives the overhand, Pinto has shown few alternative paths standing.

The clear exploitation point: if you can weather his single power shots and drag him into deeper water, his volume game does not exist to bail him out.

Ryan Spann's Breakdown

Spann is the far more experienced fighter here at 24-11 with a monster resume of finishes. He is a genuine two way threat. His guillotine is a career weapon, having accounted for 10 of his 13 submission wins. Against Ion Cutelaba in May 2022, he baited an over-eager takedown and locked up a technical double enclosure guillotine, catching the windpipe in the crook of his arm for a first round finish. He did the same style of opportunistic choke work against Devin Clark (guillotine round 2) and Ovince Saint Preux in October 2024, where he closed distance and snatched the neck at 1:35 of round 1.

His other calling card is the overhand right from orthodox. He iced Misha Cirkunov and Dominick Reyes with power striking, and against Reyes in November 2022 he used his length and pop to finish a former title challenger in round 1. Most recently he beat Marcus Buchecha by KO/TKO in April 2026 and submitted Lukasz Brzeski in July 2025, so he is 3-1 in his last four.

His signature techniques: - Front chokes, especially the guillotine and d'arce: His go-to against anyone who shoots carelessly, shown against Cutelaba and OSP. - Overhand right from orthodox: Finished Cirkunov and Reyes. - Length-based distance management: His 79 inch reach and 6'5 frame let him jab and time power shots.

Technical evolution: at heavyweight he removed the weight cut, but the Cortes-Acosta fight suggested that did not fix his core issues. His grappling and speed edge shrank against a naturally bigger man.

Ryan Spann's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio and defensive collapse when fatigued: This is the big one. Against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in March 2025, Spann burned his tank early loading up on single shots, then his guard dropped and his head movement vanished, and he got stopped by KO/TKO. This is a recent knockout loss, so the same finish is a live threat again. Same story against Bogdan Guskov in April 2024, where he faded and got countered.
• Predictable single overhand entries: Guskov timed a right uppercut inside Spann's jab as he dipped in, in round 1. His limited striking variety lets opponents read and counter his entries.
• Fight IQ lapses and rushing: Against Nikita Krylov in March 2023, Spann dove head first at a downed Krylov and fed himself straight into a triangle. He can be baited into bad positions when he gets impatient.

The exploitation point is obvious: Spann eats power when he tires, and his striking defense percentage of 0.3691 is poor.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash because both men own the overhand right and both can grapple, but they arrive from opposite directions.

• Pinto's wrestling vs Spann's guillotine: This is the key crossroads. Pinto shoots often (9.56 attempts per fight) and Spann loves catching careless shooters in the guillotine, exactly what he did to Cutelaba and OSP. If Pinto shoots sloppy or dives head first, he is feeding Spann's best weapon. But Pinto's takedown entries against Diniz were clean level changes, not the reckless dives Spann feasts on. Pinto's 100 percent takedown defense also means Spann cannot easily reverse into top control.
• Pinto's overhand vs Spann's fatigued defense: Spann has been knocked out three times recently by power (Cortes-Acosta, Guskov, plus Walker earlier). Pinto's finishing overhand is exactly the kind of shot that has put Spann down. If Pinto lands his double feint entry into the right hand the way he did on Lane, Spann's chin is a known liability.
• Spann's early power vs Pinto's passive starts: Here is the danger for Pinto. Spann is most lethal in round 1, and Pinto habitually gives away early rounds sitting in his shell. If Pinto sleepwalks the opening frame the way he did against Lane, Spann is precisely the kind of first round finisher who can make him pay before he wakes up.

The closest historical parallel is the Diniz fight, where a striker with credentials could not stop Pinto's takedowns. If Pinto grounds Spann and stays disciplined, Spann's path narrows to a submission scramble.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Spann's most dangerous window. He finished Reyes, Cirkunov, and Nogueira early. Pinto must resist his usual passive read phase, because giving Spann free rein in round 1 is the single biggest risk on the board. If Pinto commits to takedowns early instead of standing, he shifts the danger onto Spann's neck defense.
• Mid-fight: As the fight moves past the first round, Spann's tank becomes the story. Cortes-Acosta and Guskov both showed Spann's technique falling apart once he fatigued. Pinto's conditioning is well above division average, so a grinding, top-heavy pace favors him badly here.
• Later rounds: If this reaches the third, everything tilts toward Pinto. Spann's guard drops, his output slows, and Pinto's overhand becomes far more likely to land clean on a compromised defense.

Analysis and Key Points

• Spann's chin is the flashing red light. He was just KO'd by Cortes-Acosta in March 2025 and by Guskov in April 2024. Pinto's overhand right, the shot that flattened Lane, is exactly the tool to repeat that.
• Pinto's wrestling nullifies Spann's striking. Diniz was a world champion kickboxer and got mauled twice. Spann has consistently lost when opponents dictated the location of the fight.
• The guillotine is Pinto's one real trap. Spann finished Cutelaba and OSP off careless entries. Pinto must shoot with clean mechanics, not dive.
• Cardio gap is wide. Spann fades hard. Pinto is built for the later rounds.
• Danger zone is round 1. Pinto's passivity plus Spann's early power is the one scenario where the upset lives.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Pinto with a modest score of 15, and the SHAP breakdown shows why it is confident but not overwhelming:

• Odds was the dominant driver, increasing the score by 13.0, reflecting Pinto's clear favorite status at -305.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 2.0, rewarding Pinto's high volume wrestling threat.
• striking_defense_percentage added 2.0.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_win_perc, striking_impact_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by roughly 1.0.
• Working against Pinto, trueskill pulled the score down by 1.0, which makes sense given Spann's far deeper resume and higher TrueSkill Mu (32.7 vs 25.0). recent_striking_impact_differential and average_striking_output_differential also each subtracted 1.0.

So the model leans on the betting market and Pinto's wrestling volume, while Spann's experience and TrueSkill keep the margin honest.

Past Model Performance

The track record here is a genuine caution flag. WolfTicketsAI has predicted Ryan Spann many times with mixed results. It correctly called his wins over Brzeski and OSP, and correctly picked Cortes-Acosta to beat him. But it has whiffed repeatedly around Spann, wrongly picking him against Guskov and Anthony Smith, and wrongly picking his opponents in the Reyes, Cutelaba, and Buchecha fights. Spann is a chaos agent who breaks models because of his finish-or-be-finished style.

For Pinto, the only logged prediction was the Diniz fight, where the model picked Diniz at 0.57 and was wrong, since Pinto won by KO/TKO. So the model has never correctly predicted a Pinto fight, which adds uncertainty to a bet already sitting at a low confidence score of 15.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Mario Pinto, and the logic holds up. Spann is the more experienced and more dangerous early fighter, but his cardio cracks and his chin has been cashed three times recently. Pinto's wrestling should nullify Spann the same way it erased Diniz, and if it goes standing his overhand right is exactly the weapon that has already dropped Spann more than once. The one real danger is Pinto's habit of sleepwalking the first round against a proven first round finisher. If Pinto stays disciplined early and gets Spann to deep water, this is his fight. Given the low confidence score of 15 and the model's shaky history with both men, treat it as a lean rather than a lock, but the pick is Mario Pinto.

Analysis: Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Oumar Sy to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Oumar Sy: -230
Modestas Bukauskas: +190

Oumar Sy's Breakdown

Sy is the long, rangy southpaw with a 83-inch reach and a grappling-first mindset. When he is on, he is a problem. Look back at his win over Tuco Tokkos in May 2024. He faked an overhand, shot the double, and chained straight to the back with a body triangle before finishing the rear-naked choke inside a round. That fluid takedown-to-back-take sequence is his best path to victory. Against Da Woon Jung he opened with that heavy left leg kick to set up his southpaw left straight, left hook to the body, and left overhand. The hip feint to fake the kick and drive opponents to the fence is a real weapon when it lands.

His signature tools: - Left leg kick to southpaw left-side combos (Da Woon Jung, Round 1): the kick establishes respect, then the straight and overhand follow. - Faked-punch level change to double leg (Tokkos, Round 1): masks the shot behind a strike. - Back-take with body triangle to rear-naked choke (Tokkos): his cleanest finishing chain.

But the recent record tells a rougher story. He has lost two of his last three. Menifield out-worked him over three rounds in a low-output snoozer, and Ion Cutelaba submitted him by mounted guillotine in March 2026. He remains a raw, athletic prospect more than a finished product.

Oumar Sy's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Predictable bottom escapes. Against Cutelaba, Sy kept sitting up on the same underhook from half guard. Cutelaba walked the elbow up, flattened him, threatened mount with a knee in the hip, and finished with a mounted guillotine. He looked confused and one-dimensional off his back.
• Reliance on the left kick that collapses when read. Jung parried the left kick across Sy's body, stepped into a body lock, and dragged him down. After that single counter, Sy abandoned the kick for nearly all of Round 2 and had no plan B. His face swelled up and the doctor stopped it.
• Top control gaps and diving shots. Against Brendson Ribeiro he got reversed with a Kimura from a spot he was supposed to dominate, and nearly ate a knee diving on a sloppy double. His wrestling is strength-based and burns cardio, which shows in later rounds.

Bukauskas has the disciplined top control and heavy elbows to punish exactly these bottom-position habits if he ends up on top.

Modestas Bukauskas's Breakdown

Bukauskas is the veteran here with 20 wins, a four-plus fight run before his last loss, and a real career revival since joining Team Aspinall. He is an orthodox pressure fighter who cuts the cage and lets go of power combinations against the fence. His win over Rafael Cerqueira in Feb 2025 was textbook: herd the man to the fence, then jump in with the left hook to right straight until the lights went out.

His signature tools: - Cage-cutting pressure into left hook-right straight (Cerqueira): walks opponents to the fence, then explodes. - Disciplined top control with slicing elbows (Paul Craig, Sept 2025): he stayed tight, refused to open up for Craig's guard, and razored Craig's ear with short elbows. - Clinch elbows off the fence (Michailidis debut): fight-ending short elbows when opponents shoot on him.

The trend is mixed though. He is coming off a bad KO/TKO loss to Nikita Krylov in Jan 2026, then only squeaked past a short-notice regional guy in Christian Edwards by split decision. His last few showings raise questions about his level.

Modestas Bukauskas's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Recent KO loss and chin questions. Krylov stopped him in January 2026, and his career is littered with knockouts against real punchers, including Crute (overhand right countering his body kick, Round 1) and Petrino. Warning: he was recently finished by strikes, and it can happen again.
• Leg kick and oblique kick vulnerability. Rountree famously destroyed his lead knee with an oblique kick while Bukauskas fired a jab. He does not check kicks well, and Crute chopped his lead leg before the finish. Sy's left leg kick is his single best-established weapon.
• Struggles with pressure and low takedown defense. Oleksiejczuk walked him down and out-pointed him. His takedown defense sits at a poor 21 percent. If Sy commits to wrestling, Bukauskas has historically been dragged down by lesser grapplers.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic length-and-wrestling versus pressure-and-power matchup.

• Sy's edge: His left leg kick targets exactly the lead leg that Rountree and Crute already exploited. If he mixes that with level changes and gets Bukauskas down, the 21 percent takedown defense could crack. His Tokkos-style back-take is the dream scenario.
• Bukauskas's edge: If this stays standing and he pressures Sy to the fence, Sy's habit of keeping his chin high and centered while advancing (noted against Jung and in his awkward reaching striking versus Ribeiro) is the exact hole Bukauskas exploited against Cerqueira. And if Sy shoots a sloppy diving double, Bukauskas's clinch elbows off the fence, the ones that finished Michailidis, are a live danger.

The historical lesson: Jung showed that parrying Sy's kick and clinching neutralizes his whole game. Bukauskas has the pressure and clinch tools to try that same script.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Sy to lead with the left kick and range shots while looking for takedown entries. Bukauskas will try to close distance and press him to the cage. Whoever imposes their range first sets the tone.
• Mid-fight: If Sy lands takedowns and controls, his length and top pressure could bank rounds like his win over Jung suggested he can, before Jung flipped it. If Bukauskas walks him down and Sy abandons his kick like he did against Jung, momentum swings hard toward the Lithuanian.
• Late: Sy's strength-based wrestling drains his tank. His output fell off badly against Jung after grappling. If this gets to Round 3, Bukauskas's pressure and Sy's proven cardio dips become real factors.

Analysis and Key Points

• Sy's left leg kick vs Bukauskas's leg-kick defense is the cleanest exploitable edge, echoing Rountree and Crute.
• Sy's takedowns vs Bukauskas's 21 percent takedown defense could decide rounds if Sy commits, like he did to Tokkos.
• Bukauskas's fence pressure and left hook-right straight could punish Sy's high chin, exactly how Cerqueira got finished.
• Warning: Sy was submitted last time out by Cutelaba; Bukauskas beat that same Cutelaba. Draw your own line there.
• Warning: Bukauskas was just KO'd by Krylov. His durability is a live question.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans on Sy but keeps the score modest at 25.

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 16 points and reflecting Sy's role as clear betting favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 4, favoring Sy's damage numbers.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 3, rewarding Sy's active wrestling against Bukauskas's leaky takedown defense.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3, and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and reach each added 2, all tilting toward Sy's length and defense.
• Minor bumps came from striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential at 1 each.
• recent_win_perc shaved 1 point off, a nod to Sy's rough 33 percent recent run.

Past Model Performance

The model's history with Sy is shaky. It has picked him three times and gone 1-2, missing on both the Menifield decision and the Cutelaba submission. That is a real caution flag on this pick. On Bukauskas, the model has been more reliable in his winning stretch, correctly calling the Cerqueira, Cutelaba, and Paul Craig wins, but it wrongly picked him against Krylov, where he got knocked out. So both sides carry recent misses.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Oumar Sy, and the path is clear: use the reach, hammer that left leg kick into a lead leg Bukauskas has never protected well, and drag him to the mat where 21 percent takedown defense lives. The score of 25 is a soft lean, not a lock, given Sy's recent submission loss and the model's spotty record on him. But the tools and the numbers point to Sy. Take Oumar Sy to get it done.

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Analysis: Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Sygula

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Klaudia Sygula to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Nora Cornolle: -120
Klaudia Sygula: +100

Nora Cornolle's Breakdown

Cornolle is a French Muay Thai stylist who built her name on precise, technical striking. When she is at her best, she fights behind a dipping jab that acts as the entry point for everything else. Against Melissa Mullins in April 2024, that dipping jab set up her signature sequence: jab to left hook, then chaining into body shots and knees. The finish came when she conditioned Mullins to expect the hook, then switched to a knee up the middle for the KO. That is Cornolle at her peak, using one weapon to unlock five.

Her signature techniques are clear:

• Dipping jab into left hook combinations. The Mullins fight showed how she uses this as a launching pad. She lands the jab safely, then reads the reaction to pick her follow up.
• Lead-side inside low kicks. Against Hailey Cowan in April 2025, she hammered the inner thigh every time Cowan circled left, forcing her to square up and killing her mobility.
• Defensive pivot-to-counter. Also against Cowan, she stepped off her lead foot to roughly the 10 o'clock angle and returned a left hook-right straight. The finish came off this exact read, pivoting as Cowan overextended on a jab-cross, then dropping her and taking the back for the rear-naked choke.

Her technical evolution through the Cowan fight showed improved footwork and better integration of striking into clinch entries. But that was her last win. Since then she has dropped two straight.

Nora Cornolle's Technical Vulnerabilities

Cornolle's problems are all on the mat, and they are severe and repeating.

• Giving up the back in the clinch. In her February 2026 loss to Joselyne Edwards, Edwards got behind her along the fence, locked a body lock over one arm, and slammed her hard enough to reportedly break her clavicle. Cornolle had no counter to the body lock from behind.
• Abandoning good defensive positions on the ground. In her first Edwards fight in 2023, she repeatedly established half guard with an underhook, the correct position to stand up, then inexplicably opened her guard and flattened out. Edwards used head-and-arm throws all night and Cornolle handed her position each time.
• Guard retention from bottom. She posts with her hands instead of moving her hips, leaving her open to pressure passing. Her split decision loss to Cavalcanti in 2024 came from an opponent who managed distance and countered her aggression.

The warning here is loud. Cornolle was just submitted and badly injured in February 2026. Fighters coming off a serious injury and a submission loss carry real risk, and her losing two of her last three shows a downward trend.

Klaudia Sygula's Breakdown

Sygula is a clinch and volume fighter who has won three of her last four in the UFC. Her statistical striking numbers are eye-popping compared to Cornolle. She throws over 12 head strikes attempted per minute and lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute, with a positive striking impact differential of +35.6. She is a pressure-volume fighter who buries opponents in output.

Her signature techniques:

• Fence-based clinch work and headlock throws. She uses the cage to initiate grappling and looks to change position with headlock throws.
• Back control hunting off transitions. She actively chases the back when opponents are compromised in scrambles.
• High-volume striking pressure. Her wins over Priscila Cachoeira in February 2026 and Irina Alekseeva in June 2025 both came by unanimous decision, built on sheer output and takedown attempts. She averages over 5 takedown attempts per fight recently.

Her evolution has been toward a grinding decision fighter who wins rounds with volume and top control rather than finishing.

Klaudia Sygula's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Slow starts. Sygula consistently looks sluggish in the opening minutes. Against Melissa Mullins in November 2024, this early hesitance let Mullins find rhythm and take over.
• Giving up her back off fence pressure. In that same Mullins fight, when pressured against the cage, Sygula turned away to create space and handed Mullins her back, which led straight to mount.
• Weak mount defense. She was finished by ground strikes from mount against Mullins because her framing and hip escapes broke down. That was a KO/TKO loss.

The heuristic warning applies here too. Sygula was KO'd in November 2024. A fighter who has been stopped by strikes can be stopped again, and Cornolle hits hard.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker-versus-grinder puzzle.

Cornolle's best path is her dipping jab and counter pivots. If she can keep this at range like she did against Mullins and Cowan, Sygula's slow starts become a real liability. Cornolle catching an early-round overextension with the left hook-right straight is exactly how she dropped Cowan, and Sygula's tendency to be sluggish early is the kind of opening Cornolle punishes.

But here is the problem. Cornolle's entire ceiling depends on keeping the fight standing, and her floor is on the mat where she has been dominated repeatedly. Sygula throws over 5 takedown attempts per fight and lives in the clinch against the fence. That is the exact scenario that got Cornolle slammed and submitted by Edwards twice. Sygula hunting the back off fence exchanges mirrors the Edwards blueprint perfectly. Cornolle turning and giving up position in the clinch is a documented, repeated flaw, and Sygula is a fence-first grappler who chases the back.

The Edwards fights are the roadmap. Sygula does not need to strike with Cornolle. She needs to close, press the fence, and grind, which is exactly what she does anyway.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Cornolle's danger window. Sygula starts slow, and Cornolle's counters are sharpest early. If Cornolle lands the dipping jab-left hook clean, she could hurt Sygula the way Mullins did.
• Mid-fight: If Sygula survives the opening and drags it to the fence, the tide turns. Her volume and takedown attempts pile up, and Cornolle's bottom game has never held up. Cornolle's guard retention issues against Cavalcanti and both Edwards fights show she fades once controlled.
• Later rounds: Sygula's cardio and output only grow. Cornolle's negative striking output differential of -16 and history of losing decisions when she cannot finish early both point to her falling behind on volume.

Analysis and Key Points

• Sygula's volume is overwhelming. +35.6 striking impact differential and over 9 strikes landed per minute dwarf Cornolle's numbers.
• Cornolle's grappling defense is a proven liability. Both Edwards fights and the Cavalcanti loss show she cannot stay safe once the fight gets grapply.
• Both fighters were recently finished. Cornolle submitted and injured in Feb 2026, Sygula KO'd in Nov 2024. This fight has finish potential either way, but Sygula controls where it goes.
• Cornolle's early counters are her only clear edge. She must land the pivot counter like she did on Cowan before Sygula settles in.
• The fence is the battleground. Sygula wants it there, and it is exactly where Cornolle has been broken before.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds were the biggest factor, increasing the score by 5.0. The market has Sygula as a near pick-em at +100 despite Cornolle being the slight favorite, and the model leans into Sygula's value.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2.0, reflecting Sygula's volume edge.
• win_streak_diff added 1.0 and recent_striking_impact_differential added 1.0, both favoring Sygula's recent form of three wins in four.
• On the other side, recent_win_perc subtracted 2.0 and striking_defense_percentage subtracted 2.0, and striking_impact_differential subtracted 1.0. These reflect Cornolle's areas of strength and keep the final score low at 3.

The net result is a low-confidence lean toward Sygula. This is not a lock.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on Cornolle, going correct on three of her last four, including her losses to Edwards and Rosa and her win over Cowan. The only miss was picking against her before the Mullins KO. That is a solid track record on this fighter.

On Sygula, the model is 0 for 1. It picked Alekseeva to beat her and was wrong when Sygula won the decision. That is a caution flag. The model has underrated Sygula's ability to grind out decisions once already.

Conclusion

Cornolle has the sharper standup and a real chance to hurt Sygula early with her dipping jab and pivot counters. But her ceiling ends the moment the fight hits the fence, and Sygula is a fence-first, high-volume grappler who does exactly what Edwards did to Cornolle twice. With a score of 3, this is a low-confidence call, but the technical matchup and Sygula's volume back it up. WolfTicketsAI takes Klaudia Sygula.