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At a glance see how confident a model is, how many agree, and how their fights have ended.
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Rich Prediction Insights and Analysis
We maintain a constantly evolving profile of each fighter's tendencies and history before each event and use that to write insights breaking down the fight.
- Easy to understand breakdowns for each fighter
- Analysis and key points of the matchup
- Explanation of the statistics that drove the prediction
- Past model performance for each fighter
- Concise conclusion alerting to any potential issues
At a glance see how confident a model is, how many agree, and how their fights have ended.
WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jack Della Maddalena to Win
Score: 5
Odds:
Gilbert Burns: 110
Jack Della Maddalena: -130
Gilbert Burns's Breakdown
Gilbert Burns is a formidable opponent with a well-rounded skill set. He has an impressive grappling pedigree, with high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an aggressive style on the ground. Burns excels at pressuring opponents, looking for takedowns and submissions. On the feet, while not as technically refined as his grappling, he has power in his hands.
However, Burns has shown some vulnerabilities in recent fights. His striking defense can be exploited, as seen in his loss to Khamzat Chimaev where he was dropped multiple times. There are also questions about his cardio in longer fights.
Jack Della Maddalena's Breakdown
Jack Della Maddalena is a rising prospect with an exciting, aggressive fighting style. He has crisp, technical boxing and great pressure. Della Maddalena excels at cutting off the cage, throwing high volume, and looking for the finish.
In his UFC career so far, Della Maddalena has been very impressive, with finishes over tough opponents like Randy Brown and Danny Roberts. He's shown an ability to deal with adversity and come back strong, like in his fight with Ramazan Emeev.
Analysis and Key Points
This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Burns will likely look to get the fight to the ground, while Della Maddalena will want to keep it standing and utilize his boxing.
The key for Burns will be closing the distance safely and securing takedowns. He's a monster on the ground and could submit Della Maddalena if he gets his back or mount. Burns needs to be wary of Della Maddalena's striking on the way in though.
For Della Maddalena, footwork and distance management will be crucial. He needs to keep the fight at boxing range, stuff takedowns, and make Burns pay on the feet. If Della Maddalena can force Burns to strike with him, he has a great chance of getting a finish.
Overall, while Burns is dangerous everywhere, Della Maddalena's takedown defense, striking skills, and momentum give him the edge here. It will be competitive, but expect the Aussie prospect to get his hand raised.
Understanding the Prediction
The model predicts Jack Della Maddalena to win with a confidence score of 5. Some key factors:
The big gap in recent win percentage (100% vs 67%) favors Della Maddalena significantly according to the SHAP data. His perfect UFC record and momentum seem to be big factors.
Della Maddalena also has advantages in significant striking differential stats. He lands 8.87 significant strikes per minute, compared to just 3.72 for Burns recently. This gap in striking volume and efficiency is important.
The model rates Della Maddalena's peak skill level (TrueSkill) higher than Burns. While both are viewed as elite welterweights, the data sees more upside and potential in the prospect.
While factors like Burns' grappling stats are impressive, they weren't enough to outweigh Della Maddalena's advantages in striking and form in the model's assessment.
Past Model Performance
On Burns' past 4 fights, the model predicted the correct winner 3 times (vs Masvidal, Magny, Muhammad). The one it got wrong was picking Burns over Chimaev.
For Della Maddalena's last 4, the model went 2-2. It correctly predicted wins over Brown and Roberts, but incorrectly picked Holland and Emeev.
This suggests the model has a pretty good read on Burns, only missing on the Chimaev fight. With Della Maddalena, it rates him highly but has had a couple misses as he's stepped up in competition. Something to keep in mind.
Conclusion
While Burns is a world-class fighter, the model sees Della Maddalena as a stylistic nightmare for him. The Aussie's slick boxing, aggressive pace, and strong takedown defense are tailor-made to give Burns problems.
Expect a competitive fight early, with Burns having moments with his grappling. But as the fight wears on, look for Della Maddalena to take over with his striking and pressure. Don't be surprised if the prospect earns a late finish to make a statement.
Ultimately, WolfTicketsAI predicts Jack Della Maddalena defeats Gilbert Burns, consider the moneyline on Della Maddalena at -130 as a worthwhile straight play.