Analysis: Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kurtis Campbell to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Kurtis Campbell: -380
Trevor Peek: +300

Kurtis Campbell's Breakdown

Kurtis Campbell comes into this one as the betting favorite, and it is the wrestling that carries his case. His numbers tell the story loud and clear. He attempts a massive 13.6 takedowns per fight and lands 5.4 of them. That is a volume grappler who wants to drag the fight to the mat early and keep it there. When you pair those numbers with a 72 inch reach and a decent 44 percent striking defense, you get a fighter who wants to control range, level change, and grind.

His signature weapon is the relentless takedown chain. At 13.6 attempts per fight he does not fire one shot and quit. He keeps chaining entries, mixing reactive doubles off the fence with re-shots when the first is stuffed. That kind of pressure grappling is the exact recipe to break a brawler who would rather stand and trade.

His striking output differential sits positive at plus 9 significant, meaning he throws more than he eats even if his power is modest with a striking impact differential of minus 3. In other words, he wins rounds with volume and control, not knockouts. He has zero knockdowns per fight, so do not expect the highlight finish. He wants the decision.

The clear warning here is his last outing. Campbell got stopped by Danny Silva by KO/TKO on 2026-03-21. That is a recent knockout loss, and it flags a real durability question. If he cannot get Peek down, he is stepping into the pocket with one of the harder hitters at the weight.

Kurtis Campbell's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Zero takedown defense on record. His takedown defense ratio sits at 0.0000. If Peek stuffs the initial shot and forces Campbell to strike, Campbell has shown nothing defensively when the grappling tables turn. Peek defends takedowns at a strong 88 percent, so this matters.
• Recent KO loss exposes the chin. The Danny Silva stoppage is the glaring red flag. Peek is a knockdown machine at 0.46 per fight. A fighter freshly finished by strikes walking into a pressure puncher is the exact heuristic warning you do not ignore.
• Modest power and negative impact differential. With a striking impact differential of minus 3, Campbell does not hurt people standing. If his takedowns stall, he has no equalizer on the feet, and the fight becomes a firefight he is not built to win.

Trevor Peek's Breakdown

Trevor Peek is the brawler in this equation. He is the chaos merchant who marches forward, throws heavy leather, and dares you to keep up. Against Erick Gonzalez in February 2023 he won by KO/TKO using downright bizarre offense, including flailing standing hammer fists that had no business landing but did. That fight showed both his unorthodox striking and his resilience, since Gonzalez took him down but could not keep him there.

His signature is volume pressure striking. Peek posts 4.98 strikes landed per minute and a huge significant striking output differential of plus 21.6. He drowns opponents in output and cracks them with a 0.46 knockdown rate. That is real, fight-ending power that Campbell simply does not carry.

His second key trait is grappling resilience and takedown defense. He sits at 88 percent takedown defense on the full record and near 80 percent recently. Even when he gets put down, the film shows him popping right back up, exactly what happened against Gonzalez. Against a one-dimensional takedown machine, that is the trait that could ruin Campbell's entire gameplan.

But here is the honest read on his form. Peek has lost three of his last four, dropping decisions to Yanal Ashmouz, Charlie Campbell, and Chepe Mariscal. His recent win percentage is a grim 0.33. That downward trend is real and it is the heuristic that keeps this from being a clean pick against a favorite.

Trevor Peek's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Loses to technical opponents who out-point him. Peek dropped unanimous decisions to Charlie Campbell (April 2024), Yanal Ashmouz (September 2024), and Chepe Mariscal (June 2023). The pattern is clear. When a fighter stays disciplined and does not brawl on Peek's terms, Peek gets out-worked over 15 minutes. Kurtis Campbell's grind-and-control style fits that mold.
• Weak striking defense. Peek absorbs a lot. His striking defense percentage is a low 0.365 and his recent number is worse at 0.348. He eats shots because he trades. Campbell's volume, plus 9 significant output differential, can bank points in the exchanges even without power.
• Takedown susceptibility over time. The Gonzalez fight noted he was taken down "effortlessly." He gets back up, but a wrestler who attempts 13-plus takedowns a fight can rack up control time and scorecard damage even if Peek keeps standing.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus brawler in its purest form. Campbell wants to level change, chain takedowns, and win boring. Peek wants to turn it into a phone booth war and land the one shot that ends nights.

The key question is Peek's 88 percent takedown defense against Campbell's 0 percent proven ability to defend a return. If Peek stuffs shots the way he did fragments against Gonzalez, Campbell has no plan B and gets dragged into striking exchanges where his minus 3 impact differential is a losing hand. That is the +300 dog path.

But the model leans the other way for good reason. The fighters who beat Peek, Charlie Campbell and Yanal Ashmouz, did it by staying composed and forcing Peek to fight a fight he could not brawl his way out of. Kurtis Campbell's 13.6 takedown attempts per fight is a much more suffocating version of that discipline. If he can get Peek to the mat even a third of the time, he banks control minutes Peek's opponents have historically used to steal decisions.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Peek is most dangerous here. His power and forward pressure are freshest, and Campbell's recent KO loss means the opening five minutes are the danger zone. Campbell must shoot early and often to avoid the pocket.
• Mid-fight: If Campbell survives the first and starts landing takedowns, the fight tilts. Peek's opponents in his three recent losses all found success by round two once the brawl was neutralized. Campbell's volume grind should start banking rounds here.
• Late rounds: Peek's recent 0.33 win rate and repeated decision losses suggest he fades on the cards when he cannot finish. If this reaches the third with Campbell still shooting, the wrestler pulls ahead the way Ashmouz and Charlie Campbell did.

Analysis and Key Points

• Campbell's 13.6 takedown attempts per fight is the engine of the pick. It mirrors how Charlie Campbell and Ashmouz out-worked Peek to decisions.
• Peek's 88 percent takedown defense is the live threat. Against a grappler with 0 percent proven takedown defense of his own, one stuffed shot can flip momentum.
• Warning: Campbell was just KO'd by Danny Silva. Peek's 0.46 knockdowns per fight makes an early finish a genuine risk.
• Warning: Peek has lost three of his last four with a 0.33 recent win rate. The downward trend is real and it is why this is a low-confidence pick.
• Peek's low striking defense (0.365) means Campbell can score in exchanges even without power.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Campbell at a modest score of 25, and the SHAP breakdown shows why it is thin:

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 18.0 points. The market has Campbell at -380, and the model respects that heavily.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_field added 5.0. Campbell's massive takedown volume is the second pillar.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, reflecting Campbell's 0.89 recent rate against Peek's collapsing 0.33.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, reach, and striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.0.

Notably, no features pushed the number down in any meaningful way, yet the final score is still just 25. That tells you the model sees a favorite but not a safe one.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history on Kurtis Campbell, so there is real uncertainty on how the model reads him. On Trevor Peek the record is split. The model correctly called his loss to Charlie Campbell in April 2024, but it wrongly backed Peek to beat Yanal Ashmouz in September 2024 at a 0.62 score. That miss is a caution flag, since the model has overrated Peek before. This time it is fading him, which fits his recent form better.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Kurtis Campbell, and the logic holds. Peek is a fading brawler who loses to disciplined, high-volume opponents, and Campbell's relentless takedown attempts are exactly that kind of kryptonite. The pick comes with a real warning label given Campbell's fresh KO loss and Peek's live power, which is why the confidence sits at just 25. But the path is clear. If Campbell shoots early and grinds, he out-works Peek the same way Charlie Campbell and Ashmouz already did. Take Kurtis Campbell to win, but do not bet the house.