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Analysis: Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Felipe Lima to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Morgan Charriere: +160
Felipe Lima: -190

Morgan Charriere's Breakdown

Charriere is a French kickboxer with clean mechanics and a striking pedigree from Cage Warriors. His game runs through kicks and timing rather than raw power. Watch how he sets traps.

Signature techniques:

• Calf kicks to establish range. Against Nate Landwehr in July 2025, he opened with sharp calf kicks that chewed up the lead leg early in rounds 1 and 2. This is his standard opener to slow opponents and dictate distance.
• Step-up body kick into finishing sequences. In his UFC debut against Manolo Zecchini in 2023, he landed a step-up left body kick halfway through round 1 that immediately hurt Zecchini, then followed with more body work and a stutter front kick to close the show. He also uses a half-fake front kick, turning his hips like he's kicking, then pausing before firing the push kick to the gut.
• Counter left hook off clinch exits. Against Gabriel Miranda in 2024, Miranda tried an uchi mata with the overhook. Charriere limp-armed out of the whizzer and cracked a short left hook as Miranda spun into it for the KO. He punishes transition moments.

Technical evolution: Charriere has shown more finishing instinct at the UFC level than he did in Cage Warriors, targeting the body to break opponents down. Against Landwehr, he also proved coachable, coming out in round 3 after corner advice and forcing the stoppage once he committed to volume.

The problem is his last outing. On December 13, 2025 he was starched by Melquizael Costa via first round KO/TKO. That is a serious warning sign for a fighter now stepping back in soon after.

Morgan Charriere's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Output collapses under pressure. Against Landwehr, once the pressure and false entries piled up, Charriere threw less and less, shelling up rather than firing back. Landwehr's feinted entries (stepping in, planting, then pushing back off) drew Charriere into swinging kicks at air and draining his tank.
• Gets timed by counter strikers. Nathaniel Wood dropped him in round 1 in March 2025 by feinting and countering his entries. Charriere had to wrestle his way back to survive that round, and never found urgency after falling behind.
• No fight-stealing urgency when behind. In the Wood fight, he ran forward "flapping" in the final 10 seconds of round 3 without landing anything meaningful. He lacks a single-shot equalizer, so once he's down on the cards he tends to stay down.
• Chin questions. The Costa KO and the Wood knockdown show that clean counters land on him despite his reputation. His recent striking defense percentage sits at 0.4296, which is porous.

Felipe Lima's Breakdown

"Jungle Boy" Lima is a grappling-first fighter with a strong BJJ base and a high submission rate. His path to victory is closing distance and dragging fights to the mat.

Signature techniques:

• Back takes into rear naked choke. Against Muhammad Naimov in June 2024, he scored a round 3 takedown, immediately climbed to the back, and clamped the rear naked choke for the finish and a Performance of the Night bonus. His 0.7273 submissions per fight (recent 1.1746) reflect a genuine finishing threat on the mat.
• High-volume takedown entries. He attempts 8.0 takedowns per fight, chaining shots and clinch entries to wear opponents down. Against Miles Johns in December 2024, he ground out a competitive decision using his wrestling to control.
• Improving clinch work. His recent clinch strikes landed per minute climbed, and his recent significant striking defense sits at a strong 0.7404, showing he's harder to hit clean than his reputation suggests.

Technical evolution: Lima's recent significant striking impact differential is positive at 8.0, and his recent striking defense numbers have jumped. He's tightening up defensively even as his striking output stays low.

Two cautions. Lima is coming off a loss to Payton Talbott in June 2025 by unanimous decision, where his striking limitations showed against a rangier opponent who kept it standing. He's also dropping back down after fighting at bantamweight, so note the weight shift.

Felipe Lima's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking lacks power ("no bonk"). Analysts flatly noted Lima "doesn't have bonk." He has zero knockdowns per fight. If he can't get the fight down, he has little to threaten with standing, which is exactly what happened against Talbott.
• Beatable on the feet by rangier strikers. Talbott kept distance and outpointed him over three rounds. Charriere's calf kicks and body kicks could keep Lima at the end of range and disrupt his entries.
• Low takedown defense. His takedown defense ratio is a rough 0.1667 (recent 0.2261). He can be reversed, and Charriere has shown he can wrestle back to top position, like he did against Chepe Mariscal and to close round 1 versus Wood.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker vs grappler chess match. The key questions:

• Charriere's kicks vs Lima's entries. Charriere's calf kicks and step-up body kicks are perfect tools to punish a fighter who has to close distance. If he lands the body kicks he hurt Zecchini with, he can compromise Lima's shot timing. Lima's flat takedown defense means he must eat some kicks to get inside.
• Lima's takedowns vs Charriere's defense. Here's the catch. Charriere's own takedown defense is dreadful at 0.2000, and he absorbs pressure poorly. Lima attempts a division-leading 8.0 takedowns per fight. If Lima commits to chain wrestling like he did against Naimov, Charriere may not stop enough of them.
• The Landwehr blueprint applied. Lima doesn't have Landwehr's hand speed, but he does have relentless forward intent. Charriere's habit of freezing and lowering output under pressure is exactly the trap Lima wants. The Naimov finish shows what happens once Lima gets to the back.

The historical lesson: Talbott beat Lima by refusing to grapple and keeping range. That's the Charriere path. But Wood and Costa showed Charriere folds when pressured and countered, and Lima's grappling pressure is a different, nastier threat than clean boxing.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Charriere should start fast with calf kicks and body kicks, the same openers that hurt Zecchini and troubled Landwehr early. Expect Lima to shoot early and often to test that 0.2000 takedown defense.
• Mid-fight: If Lima gets Charriere to the mat, the back-take to rear naked choke sequence from the Naimov fight is live. If Charriere stuffs the early shots and starts landing volume, Lima's low output and lack of power leave him falling behind, the exact situation he was in against Talbott.
• Later rounds: Charriere's cardio suffers badly when forced onto the back foot and made to defend. Lima's grappling volume compounds over time. If this hits round 3 with Lima on top, Charriere lacks the urgency and one-shot power to steal it, as the Wood loss proved.

Analysis and Key Points

• Charriere just got KO'd by Costa in round 1. Fresh off a knockout loss, the chin and confidence questions are real.
• Charriere freezes under pressure. Landwehr and Wood both exposed his tendency to lower output and get timed on entries.
• Charriere's takedown defense is a glaring hole at 0.2000. Lima's 8.0 takedown attempts per fight aim right at it.
• Lima's grappling is the difference maker. The Naimov back-take to RNC shows his finishing path.
• Lima's striking is thin. No knockdowns, "no bonk," and he lost to Talbott by staying standing. If Charriere keeps it a kickboxing match at range, he has a live path.
• Weight note: Lima dropping from bantamweight back to featherweight.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Lima but only by a slim score of 12, so this is close.

• Odds were the biggest factor, cutting the score by 9.0, reflecting Lima's heavy -190 favorite status.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 2.0, a nod to Charriere and the fact Lima is coming off a loss.
• striking_impact_differential, recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, average_striking_output_differential, and reach each nudged the score up by 1.0 toward Charriere's side of the ledger.
• recent_significant_striking_output_differential and striking_defense_percentage each pulled the score down by 1.0.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage pushed up by 1.0, reflecting Lima's improved 0.7404 recent defense.

The takeaway: the market and Lima's grappling edge carry the pick, while Charriere's reach and striking differentials keep this from being a blowout on paper.

Past Model Performance

Mixed signals here. On Charriere, WolfTicketsAI has been mostly right, correctly calling the Landwehr win, the Miranda KO, and the Costa loss. But it whiffed on the Wood and Mariscal fights, both times overrating Charriere and both times he lost by decision. That's the exact scenario in play again.

On Lima, the model has struggled. It was wrong on the Talbott fight (predicted Lima, he lost) and wrong on the Johns fight. So the confidence in Lima specifically deserves caution given a 0-for record on him.

Conclusion

Charriere is the cleaner, more dangerous striker at range, and if he fights like he did against Zecchini he can win a kickboxing match. But his takedown defense sits at 0.2000, he freezes under pressure, and he's fresh off a first round knockout. Lima's relentless takedown volume and his back-take to rear naked choke finish give him the tools to drag this into deep water where Charriere has no answers. Take the grappler. WolfTicketsAI sides with Felipe Lima.