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Analysis: Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniil Donchenko to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Daniil Donchenko: -245
Punahele Soriano: +200

Daniil Donchenko's Breakdown

Donchenko rolls into this one riding real momentum. He's 15-2 overall and has looked sharp in his recent UFC run, most notably wrecking Theodor Berggren by KO/TKO in June 2026 and out-pointing veteran gatekeeper Alex Morono by unanimous decision earlier that year. The Morono fight told you plenty about his fight IQ. Morono showed up with a strapped, injured knee, and Donchenko sniffed out the tell immediately, chopping at that leg with repeated low kicks until Morono could barely stand by the end of round one. That's a guy who hunts for the weak spot and hammers it without hesitation.

His signature weapons:

• Leg kick pressure. He lands 2.49 leg kicks per minute while absorbing almost nothing (0.076 per minute). Against Morono he turned the lead leg into a liability in a single round. Soriano throws almost no leg kicks himself (0.10 landed per minute) and absorbs 0.46 per minute, so this is a clean lane for Donchenko.
• Volume striking with impact. He lands 8.06 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy. His striking impact differential of 54 and significant striking impact differential of 45.6 are massive numbers. He hits harder and more often than the men across from him, and the SHAP data confirms this is a core reason for the model's lean.
• Head-hunting output when the finish is there. The Berggren KO shows he closes the show when an opponent's structure breaks. His knockdowns-per-fight number (2.30) is elite and points to genuine stopping power.

Technically, the recent film shows a fighter blending in more wrestling. His recent takedowns attempted jumped to 5.19 per fight from a career 1.72, so he's added a layer of takedown threat to keep opponents honest.

Daniil Donchenko's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Thin takedown defense. His takedown defense ratio sits at just 0.33. That is a flashing warning light against Soriano, who is a legitimate wrestler when he chooses to use it. Soriano stuffed Baeza's grappling and buried Todorovic with clinch-to-takedown chains. If Donchenko gets planted, his whole leg-kick and volume game stalls.
• Head strikes absorbed. He eats 2.26 head strikes per minute. He's not untouchable, and Soriano only needs one clean overhand left to change the night. Donchenko has not faced a one-shot southpaw finisher of Soriano's caliber recently.
• Finishing lapses. Against Morono he dominated early but couldn't close, letting a badly hurt opponent survive to the final bell. If he leaves Soriano breathing, that's exactly the kind of window Soriano exploited to flatten Medic.

Punahele Soriano's Breakdown

Soriano is 13-4 and enters on a three-fight win streak (Brahimaj, Veretennikov, Medic), all at welterweight. He's a power-punching southpaw whose entire framework orbits the overhand left. The Medic KO in January 2025 was pure Soriano, closing distance and dropping the hammer the moment Medic retreated in a straight line with his chin up.

His signature weapons:

• Overhand left. His money shot. It flattened Lungiambula (with an uppercut assist) and remains his highest-percentage path to victory. Against orthodox Donchenko, the open-side geometry actually favors that left hand.
• Wrestling when he commits. Against Baeza he controlled top position, shrugged off 50/50 leg-lock attempts, and piled on ground and pound. Against Todorovic he chained clinch work into takedowns for a first-round finish. His recent takedowns attempted (3.63 per fight) and strong takedown defense (1.53 recent ratio) show a real grappling base. This is his best route given Donchenko's 33% takedown defense.
• Toughness and pace management. He weathered Allen's pressure and out-worked him over three rounds.

Recent evolution: he's leaning on wrestling and decisions more than the reckless knockout hunt. Two straight decisions before the Medic KO suggests a more measured Soriano.

Punahele Soriano's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensive collapse in combinations. After his jab, Soriano sprints forward chin-up and abandons his stance. Kopylov punished this exact habit, spiking him with a high-elbow guard and finishing with a liver kick in round two. Donchenko's volume and leg kicks feast on fighters who overextend.
• Cardio fade. His gas tank has betrayed him repeatedly. Kopylov finished him late as he wilted, and Maximov out-wrestled him into round three. Donchenko's relentless output (10.28 recent strikes landed per minute) is built to drown a fading Soriano.
• Predictable single-weapon offense. When opponents solve the overhand left, Soriano has no plan B. His significant striking defense percentage is a leaky 0.47, meaning he gets hit clean often. Donchenko lands 62% of his significant strikes and will find that chin.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Donchenko's leg kicks are the perfect answer to a stationary southpaw who throws almost no kicks and absorbs them freely. Picture the Morono treatment, chopping the base out from under Soriano while staying out of overhand range. Donchenko's volume and 62% accuracy also target the exact defensive gap Kopylov exploited, that chin-up sprint after the jab.

Soriano's cleanest path is the Maximov blueprint: use the overhand left as a threat, then close and wrestle. Donchenko's 33% takedown defense is the one place Soriano can drag this into deep water. But Soriano has to commit early before the leg damage saps his own explosiveness, and he historically defaults back to head-hunting instead of grinding.

The Kopylov fight is the cautionary tale that fits best here. A varied, accurate striker who managed distance and attacked the body picked Soriano apart and finished him as he faded. Donchenko is that kind of striker.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Donchenko establishes leg kicks and volume. Soriano's biggest danger window is right here, when he's fresh and the overhand left carries the most snap. If he lands clean early, the model's edge evaporates.
• Mid-fight: As leg kicks accumulate and Soriano's output drops, Donchenko's pace takes over. This is where Kopylov and Maximov both pulled away.
• Late: Soriano's cardio history is grim. If this reaches round three, Donchenko's engine and accuracy should compound, mirroring how Soriano wilted against Kopylov.

Analysis and Key Points

• Leg kick mismatch: Donchenko lands 2.49 per minute; Soriano throws 0.10 and absorbs 0.46. Same recipe that crippled Morono.
• Cardio warning on Soriano: He faded and got stopped by Kopylov and out-worked by Maximov. Donchenko's volume punishes tired fighters.
• Overhand left is real: Soriano flatlined Medic in one round. Donchenko absorbs 2.26 head strikes per minute, so he cannot get careless.
• KO caution both ways: Soriano was recently KO'd by Kopylov but also owns a recent KO over Medic. He can end it or get ended.
• Takedown battle is the swing factor: Donchenko's 33% takedown defense is the one lever Soriano can pull. Expect him to shoot when the leg kicks start piling up.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's numbers all point Donchenko's way, though the modest score of 25 signals a competitive fight.

• odds was the biggest mover, adding 13 points. Donchenko as a -245 favorite carries real market weight.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 6, reflecting Donchenko's far superior power-per-shot numbers.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2, both flagging Donchenko's tighter defense versus Soriano's leaky 0.47.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_win_perc each added 2, rewarding Donchenko's clean recent run.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight each added 1.

No features pulled the score down in any meaningful way, which is why the pick lands squarely on Donchenko.

Past Model Performance

The model is a perfect 1-for-1 on Donchenko, nailing the Morono decision at 0.78. Small sample, but a clean one.

Soriano is a different story and demands caution. The model has been wrong about him repeatedly, missing on Medic (predicted his opponent, Soriano won by KO), Baeza, Stoltzfus, Kopylov, and Maximov. It has only cashed on him against Veretennikov and Lungiambula. Soriano is a volatile fighter the model has struggled to read, which is a real risk flag even when he's the underdog here.

Conclusion

Donchenko has the tools that map perfectly onto Soriano's flaws: leg kicks against a man who won't check them, volume and accuracy against a chin-up combination puncher, and a pace built to exploit Soriano's shaky cardio. The overhand left and the wrestling give Soriano live puncher's and grappler's chances, so keep the KO caution in mind. But WolfTicketsAI is riding with Daniil Donchenko, and the film and the numbers both back the call.