Analysis: Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Song Yadong to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Song Yadong: -550
Deiveson Figueiredo: +400

Song Yadong's Breakdown

Song Yadong enters this fight coming off a close decision loss to Sean O'Malley at UFC 324, where he showed his trademark leg kicks and improved wrestling but struggled to consistently land clean strikes against elite movement. Before that, he dominated Henry Cejudo over three rounds, showcasing his counter left hook and kick-catching ability that has become a signature weapon.

Song's game centers on a few key techniques. First, his counter left hook off incoming kicks has been devastating throughout his career. Against Cejudo, he caught a body kick and immediately hammered him with a right hook. Against Ricky Simon, he used level changes to bait Simon into dropping his right hand, then popped up with left hooks that eventually led to a fifth-round TKO finish. Second, his calf kicks have become a primary weapon. Against O'Malley, he opened with leg kicks immediately and briefly wobbled the taller fighter in round two with powerful shots to the calves. Third, his single leg takedown with direction changes has evolved nicely. Against Gutierrez, he ran opponents toward the fence, then changed direction and took his head outside to run the pipe.

Song has shown technical evolution in recent fights. His wrestling integration has improved significantly under Team Alpha Male, and he now mixes kicks with his boxing more effectively than in his earlier UFC appearances. Against Simon, he defended seven of nine takedown attempts while landing 102 total strikes. His body work has become more consistent, and he uses body-head combinations to set up his finishing weapon.

Song Yadong's Technical Vulnerabilities

Difficulty Against Elite Movement: Song struggled mightily against O'Malley's stance switches and lateral movement. When pressing forward with combinations, he frequently came up short or missed entirely. In round three against O'Malley, he couldn't find his range for the first three minutes and telegraphed takedown attempts that were easily stuffed. Figueiredo's circling and counter-heavy style could exploit this if he stays disciplined.

Susceptibility to Elbows and Cuts: Against Cory Sandhagen, Song was stopped by doctor's stoppage after a devastating up elbow sliced open his eyebrow. The thin skin around his eyes has proven vulnerable, and Figueiredo has shown effective elbow work in the clinch throughout his career.

Cage Cutting Issues: Song gets opponents to the fence but releases pressure almost immediately, allowing them to escape. Against Gutierrez, as soon as his opponent circled toward his left hook and it fell short, Gutierrez was "out the side door and gone." This persistent footwork issue could allow Figueiredo to avoid sustained exchanges.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Figueiredo enters on a rough stretch, going 1-3 in his last four fights. His most recent outing against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 324 was particularly concerning. He appeared passive and content to circle on the outside, rarely initiating exchanges and demonstrating little of the explosiveness that defined his flyweight championship reign. He received a warning from referee Herb Dean for inactivity in the third round.

When Figueiredo is engaged, his signature techniques remain dangerous. His pull counter to double leg has been effective throughout his career. He throws a punch, pulls back to avoid the return fire, then immediately shoots on the hips. Against Montel Jackson, he executed this "flawlessly" according to analysts. His guillotine choke from guard remains a persistent threat. Against Benavidez in their second fight, he locked up multiple deep rear-naked choke attempts and eventually forced the tap. His power right hand can shift momentum instantly. Against Yan, he knocked the Russian down with a straight right in round four despite losing the fight.

Figueiredo's transition to bantamweight has been rocky. At 38 years old, he appears to have lost the explosiveness that made him dominant at flyweight. His striking output has dropped significantly, and he's been outworked in volume by Yan, Sandhagen, and Nurmagomedov. The wide stance he uses to optimize his rear hand power leaves his lead leg dangerously exposed to kicks.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Technical Vulnerabilities

Left Hook Defense: Figueiredo has never slipped or blocked a left hook effectively in his career. Against Brandon Moreno across four fights, Moreno landed his left hook "for free" repeatedly. Song's counter left hook is one of his best weapons, and Figueiredo's complete lack of defense against this punch is a glaring mismatch.

Lead Leg Exposure: Figueiredo's wide, deep stance leaves his lead leg vulnerable to kicks. Yan attacked with side kicks to the knee throughout their fight, particularly in round two, damaging his base and compromising his movement. Song's calf kick game is elite, and this vulnerability could be exploited immediately.

Volume Deficit: Figueiredo was outlanded 121-53 in significant strikes against Yan. His low output style has become a liability against high-volume strikers who can accumulate points without engaging in dangerous power exchanges. Song's ability to maintain pace should give him a significant advantage on the scorecards.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Song's technical strengths against Figueiredo's known weaknesses. Song's counter left hook directly exploits Figueiredo's complete inability to defend that punch. Every time Figueiredo enters with his right hand, he leaves himself open to the left hook counter that Song has been landing throughout his career.

Song's calf kicks present another major problem. Figueiredo's wide stance optimizes his power but leaves his lead leg exposed. Moreno had tremendous success attacking Figueiredo's legs across their four fights, and Song's leg kick game is more developed and consistent. If Song commits to attacking the legs early, he can compromise Figueiredo's base and limit his power output.

Figueiredo's best path to victory involves his pull-counter-to-takedown entries and guillotine threats. However, Song's takedown defense has improved dramatically under Team Alpha Male. He defended 78% of Simon's takedowns and has shown excellent whizzer get-ups when taken down. Against Sandhagen, his overhook escapes were "absolutely gorgeous."

The historical parallel here is Song's fight against Cejudo. Like Figueiredo, Cejudo was a smaller, wrestling-heavy former champion moving up in weight. Song neutralized the wrestling threat and picked Cejudo apart with counter strikes and leg kicks. Figueiredo's wrestling is less refined than Cejudo's, and his striking output has declined significantly.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Song should establish his calf kicks immediately, just as he did against O'Malley and Simon. Figueiredo typically starts slow and builds pace, which plays into Song's counter-striking style. If Song can damage the lead leg early, Figueiredo's power shots become less threatening and his takedown entries become slower.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: Figueiredo may attempt to increase his wrestling pressure if he's losing the striking exchanges. However, his takedown attempts have become more predictable at bantamweight, and Song's defensive wrestling has improved significantly. Song should continue mixing body work with head strikes, using the body-head combinations that worked so well against Simon.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-round fight, but Song has shown excellent cardio in five-round main events. Figueiredo's conditioning has been questioned at bantamweight, and he appeared to fade against Yan in the later rounds. Song's volume should increase as the fight progresses while Figueiredo's output typically decreases.

Analysis and Key Points

• Song's counter left hook vs. Figueiredo's non-existent left hook defense is the defining technical mismatch. Figueiredo has been caught by this punch repeatedly throughout his career and has shown no adjustment.

• Song's calf kicks vs. Figueiredo's wide stance presents another significant advantage. The leg attack strategy that worked for Moreno should be even more effective for Song, who has a more developed kicking game.

• Figueiredo's recent passivity is concerning. Against Nurmagomedov, he received a warning for inactivity. Against Yan, he was outlanded by a massive margin. At 38 years old, the explosiveness that defined his flyweight reign appears diminished.

• Song's improved wrestling neutralizes Figueiredo's best path to victory. The pull-counter-to-takedown entries that worked against Jackson may not find the same success against Song's defensive wrestling.

• Warning: Figueiredo was recently stopped by Sandhagen via heel hook in round two. While Song is not a leg lock specialist, this shows Figueiredo can be finished when hurt.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction is heavily influenced by the odds, which increased the score by 24 points. Song is a significant favorite at -550, and the model reflects this market confidence.

Significant Striking Impact Differential added 3 points to Song's score. Song lands with more damage relative to what he absorbs, while Figueiredo's differential has turned negative at bantamweight.

Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 2 points. Song's recent performances show consistent striking effectiveness, while Figueiredo has been outstruck in his recent losses.

Recent Win Percentage added 2 points. Song is 1-1 in his last two, while Figueiredo is 1-3 in his last four.

TrueSkill added 1 point. Both fighters have similar ratings, but Song's trajectory is more favorable.

Striking Defense Percentage added 1 point. Song defends strikes more effectively than Figueiredo at bantamweight.

Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1 point. Figueiredo attempts more takedowns, which could theoretically give him paths to victory through grappling.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Song Yadong, correctly predicting his wins over Cejudo and Gutierrez, and correctly predicting his losses to O'Malley, Yan, and Sandhagen. The model's only miss was predicting Simon to beat Song, when Song actually won by fifth-round TKO.

For Figueiredo, the model correctly predicted his losses to Nurmagomedov, Sandhagen, and Yan, and correctly predicted his win over Garbrandt. The model incorrectly predicted Figueiredo to beat Moreno in their fourth fight and incorrectly predicted Moreno to beat Figueiredo in their third fight. The model also missed on Figueiredo vs. Jackson and Figueiredo vs. Font.

The model's recent accuracy on both fighters suggests confidence in this prediction. It has correctly identified Figueiredo's decline at bantamweight and Song's competitive level against elite opposition.

Conclusion

Song Yadong's technical advantages are clear and significant. His counter left hook exploits Figueiredo's worst defensive habit. His calf kicks attack Figueiredo's exposed lead leg. His improved wrestling neutralizes Figueiredo's best offensive weapon. At 38 years old with diminished explosiveness and a 1-3 record in his last four fights, Figueiredo faces a younger, sharper opponent whose style is specifically designed to exploit his weaknesses. WolfTicketsAI picks Song Yadong to win this fight.