Analysis: Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rei Tsuruya to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Rei Tsuruya: -750
Kevin Borjas: +525

Rei Tsuruya's Breakdown

Tsuruya is a 23-year-old grappling machine with judo roots and a submission game that plays at an elite level. At 11-1, his only blemish is a decision loss to Joshua Van, and the way he bounced back tells you plenty about where his game is headed.

His bread and butter is chaining strikes into grappling. Against Luis Gurule in May 2026, he showed the polished version of this. From a southpaw stance, he worked the up jab into the left straight down the pipe, dropped Gurule, then immediately snatched the front headlock with his knee tucked behind the elbow. No wild ground and pound, no burning energy. He ran to the back, took a single hook, and when Gurule scrambled up and posted a hand for balance, Tsuruya slid the rear naked choke home. That is textbook back-take mechanics.

His signature weapons: - Southpaw up jab to left straight. This is his primary striking entry, and it dropped Gurule twice in Round 1. It also sets up his level changes. - Front headlock to back take. Knee behind the elbow, run to the back without resistance, or spin to the seated kata gatame guillotine. This is where he finishes people. - Judo throws. Even in the losing effort against Van, he hit a gorgeous drop ippon seoi nage. His wrestling pedigree as a Junior Olympian gives him takedown variety Borjas simply cannot answer.

Statistically he backs this up. He lands 3.6 takedowns per fight on over 14 attempts, and his takedown defense sits at a perfect 1.000. Against Carlos Hernandez at UFC 303, he used a lead hook to draw strikes, then leveled to the undefended legs for takedowns. That striking-to-wrestling seam is his real skill.

Rei Tsuruya's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Body shot reaction. Against Gurule he dropped his hands and lifted his chin every time a right straight touched his body. For a southpaw, opponents step in with the right straight to the body all day, and Tsuruya's habit of touching the punch leaves his head exposed. Borjas throws to the liver, as he did ripping left hooks downstairs against Andre Lima in Round 2.
• Striking collapses against real strikers. The Van fight exposed him fully. He looked terrified to throw, and his hesitance made his wrestling entries predictable. When he cannot bully with wrestling, his confidence cracks.
• Predictable, flashy takedown entries under pressure. Against Van he kept diving at the leg too obviously and reached for flashy attempts instead of fundamental shots. When his A-game stalls, he presses harder into low-percentage setups rather than resetting.

When his primary gameplan fails, Tsuruya gets tentative on the feet and leans harder into telegraphed shots. That is the blueprint Van used to beat him.

Kevin Borjas's Breakdown

Borjas, "El Gallo Negro," is a 28-year-old Peruvian power puncher at 11-5 overall but just 2-4 in the UFC. He carries legit flyweight knockout thump, but his record and recent form tell a rougher story. He has lost four of his last five, and his most recent win over Andre Lima came off a short-notice weight miss.

What he does well: - Counter left hand. Against Imanol Rodriguez he timed a forward-pressing opponent and dropped him cold in Round 1 with a counter left. He can hurt anyone at 125 when he lands clean. - Right hand over the top. His straight right dropped Ronaldo Rodriguez twice for two knockdowns in a single round, and it staggered him early. This is his money punch. - Volume and movement, when disciplined. Against Lima he stayed on the bicycle, circled out, and fired three-to-five-punch bursts. His best version is elusive footwork plus combination boxing.

His stats show real power, with 0.59 knockdowns per fight, but the striking differentials are ugly. His significant striking impact differential sits at -28.5, meaning he gets outlanded by a wide margin over the course of fights.

Kevin Borjas's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio cliff after Round 1. Against Imanol Rodriguez he dropped his man early, blitzed, then gassed hard in Round 2 and got stalked down and finished. When he cannot secure an early finish, he fades.
• Wrestling is a nightmare matchup. His takedown defense sits at a putrid 0.235. Against a grappler who can chain takedowns, he has no answer. His own difficult matchups list is literally elite grapplers who enforce takedowns and control.
• Recently KO'd and durability questions. He was TKO'd by Imanol Rodriguez in February 2026 and stopped by Alessandro Costa before that, three of his five losses coming by stoppage. Warning: a fighter recently knocked out can get stopped again, especially if hurt. That said, Tsuruya is no knockout artist.

When his gameplan fails, Borjas either gets finished after gassing or, in his best case against Lima, survives on movement and volume to steal rounds.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a grappler versus a defensively porous striker with the worst possible takedown defense for this matchup.

Tsuruya's path is clear. He draws with the lead hand like he did against Hernandez, then levels for the shot. Borjas defends only 23.5 percent of takedowns, and Tsuruya lands 3.6 per fight. Once it hits the mat, Borjas has zero submission threat and Tsuruya's front headlock to back take will hunt the choke. Borjas showed decent closed guard against Imanol Rodriguez, but surviving guard against an elite back-taker who capitalizes on scrambles is a different problem entirely.

Borjas's only real path is the Van blueprint. He needs to make Tsuruya scared to shoot by cracking him early, the way Van's striking froze him. Borjas has the counter left and the over-the-top right to do damage, and Tsuruya's body-shot reaction is a genuine opening. If Borjas rips the liver like he did against Lima, then follows upstairs when Tsuruya lifts his chin, there is a puncher's chance.

But the difference is Van is a polished, cardio-sound pressure striker. Borjas gasses after one round and gets dominated late. Even if he hurts Tsuruya early, sustaining it is the problem he has never solved.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Borjas's most dangerous window. His power is freshest in Round 1, and if he can time a counter left as Tsuruya enters, he could rattle him and shake his confidence like Van did. Tsuruya must respect the counter and not dive recklessly.
• Mid-fight: As Borjas fades, Tsuruya's wrestling takes over. Just like Imanol Rodriguez stalked the gassed Borjas in Round 2, Tsuruya will start landing shots and dragging him down at will. This is where the front headlock and back take come online.
• Late: If it goes long, Borjas has nothing left. His cardio cliff plus Tsuruya's control grappling means the back half belongs to Tsuruya, likely with a submission or a dominant decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown defense mismatch is the whole fight. Borjas defends 23.5 percent; Tsuruya has a perfect defensive record and 14-plus attempts per bout. That gap decides this.
• Borjas fades hard. He dropped Imanol Rodriguez then got finished after gassing. Against a grappler who only gets stronger, that is fatal.
• Tsuruya's body-shot habit is Borjas's one opening. He drops his hands and lifts his chin on body shots, exactly what Borjas exploited against Lima's liver.
• The Van loss is the cautionary tale. A confident striker can freeze Tsuruya. But Borjas lacks Van's cardio and consistency to keep that pressure up.
• Borjas was recently KO'd. He can be hurt, but Tsuruya isn't the finisher to exploit it the way Imanol Rodriguez did.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Tsuruya with a modest score of 27, and the SHAP values explain the tempered confidence:

• Odds increased the score by 21, the biggest single driver, reflecting Tsuruya as a heavy -750 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 5, favoring Tsuruya's cleaner impact profile.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 4, pointing straight at Tsuruya's wrestling volume against a poor takedown defender.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2 and significant_striking_output_differential added 1.
• reach added 1, though both men measure 68 inches, so it is a wash in practice.
• On the other side, striking_defense_percentage shaved off 2 and average_striking_output_differential shaved off 1, small nods to Borjas's live-round striking activity.

The net is a confident lean toward Tsuruya, driven mostly by the odds and the wrestling edge, but the low absolute score reflects Borjas's real one-punch danger.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has hit on Tsuruya before, correctly calling his Round 1 submission win with a 0.69 score. That is a vote of confidence when the pick leans on his grappling.

Borjas is a different story. The model has been wrong on him twice. It picked Andre Lima at 0.82 and Borjas spoiled it, and it picked Ronaldo Rodriguez at 0.65 and Borjas won again. Caution: Borjas has twice beaten the model's expectation as a live dog. He has a habit of pulling upsets when written off, so the +525 price is not free money.

Conclusion

Everything points to Tsuruya. Borjas cannot stop the takedown, cannot survive on the mat, and cannot maintain his output past the first round. Tsuruya draws with the lead hand, levels for the shot, and hunts the back for the choke, exactly as he did to Gurule. Borjas has real early power and a genuine puncher's chance if he freezes Tsuruya like Van did, and his history of upsetting the model demands respect. But the smart read follows the wrestling. WolfTicketsAI takes Rei Tsuruya, most likely by submission once Borjas fades.