Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alessandro Costa to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Matt Schnell: +500
Alessandro Costa: -700

Matt Schnell's Breakdown

Matt Schnell is a 35-year-old veteran with a 7-8 (1 NC) UFC record who has seen better days. His recent form is concerning. He's won just 1 of his last 5 fights, with three submission losses and a knockout loss during that stretch. The most recent defeat came at UFC Vegas 111 against Joseph Morales, where Schnell shot for a takedown and got caught in a guillotine choke at 2:54 of round one.

Signature Techniques:

1. Triangle Choke from Bottom Position - Schnell has multiple UFC wins via triangle, a rare submission at the highest level. Against Sumudaerji in July 2022, he secured a triangle after being badly hurt earlier in the fight. He threatened with the same technique from bottom against Flick in round one when Flick established side control.

2. Counter Left Hook - Against Sumudaerji, Schnell repeatedly landed counter left hooks by slipping outside and following with an uppercut-left hook combination. This sequence eventually changed the fight's momentum despite Schnell being nearly finished earlier.

3. Level Change Feint to Straight Right - Schnell uses feinted takedowns to set up his right hand. Against Sumudaerji, after weathering significant punishment, he feinted a level change and fired a straight right that dropped his opponent.

Technical Evolution:

Schnell showed more patience against Jimmy Flick in April 2025, earning a split decision by managing distance and avoiding unnecessary risk. His ground-and-pound from top position opened a cut on Flick with elbows in round two. But that measured approach disappeared against Morales when he instinctively shot after eating a clean right hook.

Matt Schnell's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Guillotine Susceptibility - This is a recurring pattern. Schnell has been submitted via guillotine twice in UFC competition. Brandon Royval caught him in May 2022 with a "Gordon Ryan guillotine" after Schnell postured up from an omoplata. Morales locked one in when Schnell exposed his neck during a scramble from crucifix position. His head position during scrambles and counter-takedowns consistently leaves his neck vulnerable.

2. Defensive Boxing When Advancing - Against Steve Erceg in March 2024, Schnell advanced behind double jabs without moving his head. Erceg timed counter left hooks repeatedly, eventually finishing him with a right to the body followed by a left hook. Schnell doesn't slip or anticipate counters when pressuring forward.

3. Reactive Takedowns When Hurt - When Schnell gets tagged clean, he shoots. Against Morales, he shot immediately after eating a right hook. Against Sumudaerji, the same pattern emerged. This tendency puts him in grappling exchanges against his opponent's strongest positions rather than recovering at range.

Alessandro Costa's Breakdown

Alessandro Costa is a 30-year-old Brazilian with a 3-3 UFC record who brings legitimate knockout power to the flyweight division. He's earned Performance of the Night bonuses in all three UFC victories. His most recent win came at UFC Vegas 115 against Stewart Nicoll, where he systematically attacked the body before landing a devastating liver shot at 4:56 of round two.

Signature Techniques:

1. Calf Kicks - Costa's leg attacks are elite. Against Kevin Borjas at UFC 301, he landed multiple calf kicks that swept Borjas off his feet and compromised his mobility. The accumulation of damage to the lead leg set up the eventual finish.

2. Liver Punch - Costa trains this shot daily according to his post-fight interview after the Nicoll win. He invested in body work throughout that fight, forcing Nicoll to protect his midsection, then crushed him with a left hook to the liver that immediately folded him.

3. 1-2 to Low Kick Combination - Costa chains his punches with immediate leg kicks. Against Borjas, he established his rhythm early with a jab-cross followed by a thudding calf kick. This unpredictable attack pattern prevents opponents from establishing defensive reads.

Technical Evolution:

Costa bounced back from a TKO loss to Alden Coria in September 2025 by showing more patience against Nicoll. His coach emphasized footwork and movement, and Costa executed the plan by maintaining distance while waiting for the right opening. The liver shot finish was a trained technique, not a lucky punch.

Alessandro Costa's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Susceptibility to Clean Combinations - Against Amir Albazi in his UFC debut, Costa was dropped by a 2-1 combination (right cross-left hook) in round two. Against Erceg, he was dropped by a 1-2 hidden behind a jab feint. When opponents time his forward movement with accurate combinations, he gets hurt.

2. Positional Discipline in Grappling - Against Erceg, Costa dropped him with a brutal hook in round two but got too aggressive chasing an armbar and ended up on his back with Erceg in mount. He sacrifices dominant position for submission attempts.

3. Cage Escape and Separation - Throughout round three against Erceg, Costa couldn't separate from the fence when Erceg engaged clinch work. He struggled to create space and was controlled against the cage for extended periods.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Schnell's guillotine susceptibility aligns dangerously with Costa's pressure style. When Schnell gets hit clean, he shoots. Costa has shown the ability to capitalize on reactive takedowns. Against Erceg, he timed a double-leg when Costa came forward. If Schnell shoots after eating one of Costa's power shots, he risks exposing his neck in transition.

Costa's body attack could be devastating here. Schnell has absorbed significant damage in recent fights, and Costa's systematic body work against Nicoll showed how he breaks opponents down. The liver shot is a trained weapon, and Schnell's tendency to shell up when pressured creates openings for body attacks.

Schnell's counter left hook could trouble Costa if he can maintain distance. Against Sumudaerji, Schnell landed this punch repeatedly by slipping outside. But Costa's calf kicks would compromise Schnell's movement and ability to circle away from power.

The grappling exchange favors neither fighter cleanly. Schnell has 1.2 submissions attempted per fight but has been submitted three times in his last five. Costa's positional discipline issues could give Schnell openings, but Schnell's neck exposure during scrambles is a glaring liability.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Costa will likely establish his calf kicks and body work immediately. His pressure style and power advantage should put Schnell on the back foot. Schnell needs to avoid shooting reactively if he gets tagged. If Costa hurts Schnell early, expect a reactive takedown attempt that could expose Schnell's neck.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Schnell survives the early onslaught, his cardio advantage could emerge. Costa has shown some early-round parity issues. Schnell's experience in deep water helped him against Flick. But Costa's conditioning looked solid against Nicoll, finishing strong in round two.

Late Fight: Schnell's durability has been tested repeatedly. He's been knocked out twice and submitted three times in recent years. At 35 with accumulated damage, his chin and recovery are questionable. Costa's finishing instinct and power make him dangerous throughout.

Analysis and Key Points

• Schnell has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with three submission losses and a knockout. This downward trend is significant.
• Costa has earned Performance of the Night in all three UFC wins. He finishes fights violently.
• Schnell's guillotine susceptibility is a pattern, not an anomaly. Royval and Morales both caught him.
• Costa's body attack is a trained weapon that could exploit Schnell's defensive tendencies.
• Schnell's reactive takedowns when hurt could put him directly in danger against Costa's power.
• The odds (-700 Costa) reflect the significant skill gap at this stage of both careers.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 22 is relatively low, but several SHAP features influenced the prediction:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 18 points. Costa is a massive favorite, and the model adjusts for that.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2 points. Schnell's 33% recent win rate hurts his case.
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1 point. Schnell's experience is factored in but doesn't overcome his recent struggles.
• Striking Impact Differential and Average Striking Output Differential each increased the score by 1 point, favoring Costa's more effective striking.
• Reach increased the score by 1 point. Schnell has a 3-inch reach advantage (70" vs 67"), but Costa has shown he can close distance effectively.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1 point for Costa.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with these fighters:

Matt Schnell: The model correctly predicted his loss to Morales (0.67 confidence) and his win over Flick (0.70 confidence). It also correctly predicted his losses to Erceg, Nicolau, and Royval. However, it incorrectly predicted Costa to beat Schnell in September 2024, when Schnell actually won by submission.

Alessandro Costa: The model correctly predicted Costa's wins over Nicoll (0.77), Borjas (0.74), and Flick (0.31). It incorrectly predicted Costa to beat Schnell in their previous meeting.

The previous incorrect prediction on this exact matchup is notable. Schnell submitted Costa in round two in September 2024. This creates uncertainty about the current prediction.

Conclusion

Alessandro Costa enters as a massive favorite with legitimate knockout power and a systematic body attack that could break down the aging Schnell. But the previous meeting between these two ended with Schnell submitting Costa, and that result should give bettors pause. Schnell's guillotine susceptibility and reactive takedown tendencies remain dangerous liabilities, and his recent form (1-4 in last 5) suggests decline. Costa's finishing ability and power advantage make him the logical pick, but the low confidence score and previous incorrect prediction on this matchup warrant caution. WolfTicketsAI sides with Costa to get the job done this time.