Analysis: Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aleksandar Rakic to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Aleksandar Rakic: -350
Marcin Tybura: +275

Aleksandar Rakic's Breakdown

Rakic is a range-oriented kickboxer who built his name on distance management and heavy low kicks. His right low kick is the tool that defines him. Against Ankalaev in 2024, he threw it repeatedly to occupy space, though Ankalaev checked most of them and the fight stalled into a decision loss. Earlier in his career against Thiago Santos in 2021, that same calf-kick game plus a jab-cross to keep opponents honest earned him a clean unanimous decision. He also owns real one-shot power, shown when he starched Jimi Manuwa in 2019 and stopped Devin Clark in 2018.

His signature techniques: - Right low kick at range. Mechanically sound with proper hip rotation. Used to accumulate leg damage and keep the buffer he needs, seen throughout the Santos and Ankalaev fights. - Jab-cross range maintenance. Not a finishing weapon, but it fills space and keeps opponents from walking in freely, as it did against Santos. - Counter right hand. His power shot when opponents overcommit, which put away Manuwa.

The problem is Rakic has not evolved. His most recent outings show the same one-dimensional approach, and now you have to weigh a serious warning: he was knocked out by Azamat Murzakanov in round 1 in October 2025, his most recent fight. That makes three KO/TKO losses in his last four (Murzakanov, Prochazka, Blachowicz), with only the Ankalaev decision loss breaking up the string. His recent win percentage sits at zero. Note also that this bout is booked at Heavyweight, a step up from his usual Light Heavyweight home. That size change matters against a natural heavyweight like Tybura.

Aleksandar Rakic's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Collapses under sustained pressure. His whole game needs space to retreat into. Blachowicz in 2022 walked him down, mixed the left hook to body with the right straight, and Rakic kept retreating onto his back leg until a knee gave out in round 3. Prochazka did the same in 2024, drowning him in chaotic forward volume until Rakic broke in round 2.
• Poor leg kick defense and checking. Against Blachowicz both men traded calf kicks, but Blachowicz landed his more cleanly and Rakic could not check consistently. His stats back this up with a weak takedown and defensive profile and a striking defense percentage under 42%.
• No grappling fallback. Rakic shows almost no offensive wrestling or clinch game. When his kickboxing fails he has no plan B, which is exactly what a grappler like Tybura wants to see.

Marcin Tybura's Breakdown

Tybura is a grizzled BJJ black belt who fights on volume, cardio, and grinding cage wrestling rather than power. His path to victory is well worn: pressure to the fence, secure the body lock, take the back, and hunt the rear-naked choke. He did exactly that to Tai Tuivasa in March 2024, weathering an early right elbow that cut him, then pushing Tuivasa to the cage, taking the back, and finishing with the choke.

His signature techniques: - Cage wrestling and back takes. The Tuivasa finish is the blueprint. He turns striker-heavy opponents into grappling exchanges he controls. - Cardio-based counter boxing. Against Romanov in 2022 he survived a brutal grappling round one, then picked apart a gassed Romanov with jabs and straights in rounds two and three for the decision. - Jab and distance management into takedowns. Against Blagoy Ivanov in 2023 he used the jab to neutralize Ivanov's power and coast to a decision.

But the recent trend is grim. Tybura has lost three of his last four. He was submitted by Spivac via armbar in round 1 in August 2024, knocked out by Ante Delija in September 2025 who overwhelmed him with fast combinations, and then lost a decision to UFC debutant Tyrell Fortune in March 2026 where explosive early takedowns and a big right hand on the stand-up did him in. At 40, his physical tools are visibly fading.

Marcin Tybura's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Susceptible to fast, powerful strikers. Delija smoked him in 2025 with hand speed and combinations. Derrick Lewis stopped him in 2018 by keeping it standing and swinging heavy. Aspinall dismantled him in roughly 90 seconds in 2023 using false entries and a jab-left hook finish. When Tybura can't reach the clinch, he eats damage.
• Slow, lumbering stance transitions. His hands are disconnected from his feet, so his striking carries little power and he telegraphs entries. Aspinall exploited exactly this.
• Getting hit rising from bottom. Fortune caught him with a big right hand as he stood off the cage in 2026, a defensive gap during scrambles.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker versus grappler puzzle, but with a twist: both men are coming off knockouts and both are on skids.

• What Rakic can exploit: Tybura's plodding, telegraphed entries are tailor-made for Rakic's counter right hand and low kicks. If Rakic keeps distance and lands the counter the way he did against Manuwa, or the way Delija and Aspinall picked Tybura apart, he can end it early. Tybura's head strikes absorbed sits at a high 2.31 per minute, a real liability against a puncher.
• What Tybura can exploit: Rakic has no answer for sustained pressure and no grappling fallback. If Tybura closes the distance and puts Rakic on the fence like he did to Tuivasa, Rakic's zero-wrestling profile becomes a trap. Rakic's takedown defense ratio of roughly .17 is alarming, and a body-lock-to-back-take could end this on the mat.
• Historical parallel: Blachowicz and Prochazka showed the pressure blueprint against Rakic. Tybura is not the athlete either of them is, but he presses forward the same way. The question is whether Tybura still has the legs to walk Rakic down before Rakic clips him.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Rakic's window. He is fresher, more explosive, and his counter power is most dangerous before fatigue sets in. Expect low kicks and a hunt for the counter right, similar to how the Manuwa fight opened.
• Mid-fight: If Rakic hasn't landed clean, Tybura's cardio and cage wrestling become the story, just as they did against Romanov. Rakic's history shows he fades and retreats when pressured, and his knee has buckled under that stress before.
• Late rounds: Tybura theoretically owns the deep water, but at 40 with two straight losses and diminishing tools, the cardio edge is not what it was. Fortune outworked him late in 2026.

Analysis and Key Points

• Rakic's counter right and low kicks match up well against Tybura's telegraphed, low-power entries, the same gaps Aspinall and Delija punished.
• Tybura's cage wrestling and back takes are the biggest threat to Rakic, whose .17 takedown defense and total lack of grappling offense mirror the trap Tuivasa fell into.
• Both fighters were recently knocked out. Rakic by Murzakanov (Oct 2025), Tybura by Delija (Sept 2025). Two shopworn chins in the pocket.
• Rakic is moving up to Heavyweight, giving up his usual size dynamic to a natural heavyweight.
• Tybura has lost 3 of his last 4; Rakic has lost 4 of his last 5. Both trends point downward.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans on Rakic despite a low confidence score of 20, and the SHAP data shows why it is so thin: - Odds was the dominant factor, increasing the score by 22. The market has Rakic as a heavy -350 favorite and that carried the pick almost by itself. - significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each added 2, reflecting Rakic's cleaner, higher-impact striking. - significant_striking_output_differential added 1. - trueskill actually subtracted 1, meaning the skill-rating model slightly favored Tybura's larger, more consistent body of work.

Strip out the odds and this is nearly a coin flip in the model's eyes.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record on both men is shaky. On Rakic, the model has been wrong repeatedly, missing on Murzakanov (0.52), Prochazka (0.53), and Blachowicz (0.36), all knockouts it did not see coming. That is a direct caution here given Rakic's chin questions. On Tybura, the model has been mixed, correct on the Tuivasa and Ivanov wins but wrong on Parkin, Diniz, and the Romanov majority decision. Neither history inspires strong confidence, which fits the low score.

Conclusion

This is a low-confidence pick riding almost entirely on the betting line. WolfTicketsAI sides with Aleksandar Rakic, and the path is clear: keep it standing, land the counter right and low kicks early, and take Tybura's fading chin before the grind begins. The heavy warning stands, both men were just knocked out, Rakic has no grappling answer if Tybura drags him to the fence, and Rakic is stepping up to Heavyweight. But the model's pick is Rakic to win, most likely by early stoppage before the fight reaches the deep water where Tybura would prefer to live.