Analysis: Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Lima to Win

Score: 31
Odds:
Andre Lima: -600
Kevin Borjas: +450

Andre Lima's Breakdown

Lima is a perfect 11-0 and has looked like one of the sharper flyweight prospects on the roster. His game starts with a clean jab and low kick rhythm that puts opponents on the back foot fast. Against Daniel Barez in March 2025, he hit Barez with jabs and low kicks right away in Round 1, "really put him on the back foot, and then Barez just never got off it." That fight was roughly 12:45 of one-sided action before Lima locked up the submission in Round 3.

His signature weapons:

• Jab and low kick entry. He used it to control range and damage the base against both Barez and Felipe dos Santos. When dos Santos started reading the low kicks, Lima mixed in body kicks and head punches to keep him guessing.
• Elbow variety in the clinch and in combination. Against Barez, Lima threw holding elbows from a long clinch with an arm behind the head, plus elbows snuck into boxing combos when Barez moved his head. The analysis compared his elbow craft favorably to elite Nak Muay.
• Counter-striking off the jab-and-dip. Against Mitch Raposo, Lima used the jab while loading defensive level-change reads, countering Raposo's left hand and digging body shots when Raposo overcommitted. That eventually opened the door for the submission finish.

His evolution shows a fighter blending boxing fundamentals with a growing grappling layer. He defended single legs well against Raposo, scrambled back to his feet, and showed cage-savvy takedown defense against Igor Severino before the bizarre DQ ending.

Andre Lima's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin rises on straight-line retreats. The dos Santos breakdown flagged that when Lima is forced to retreat in straight lines against the cage, his chin can rise, creating counter windows. Borjas's whole game is timing a counter left or overhand right on a retreating opponent.
• Untested chain wrestling. Lima's takedown defense looks strong against single shots, but the Raposo analysis noted opponents who chain attempts together may find more success. Borjas does not wrestle, so this is a low risk here.
• Predictable pressure against the fence. The dos Santos notes said his movement can get predictable when pressured to the cage. Borjas does his best work countering off forward pressure, so Lima must avoid walking in flat-footed.

Kevin Borjas's Breakdown

Borjas, "El Gallo Negro," is the power threat. Eight of his ten wins come by KO/TKO, and he carries legit one-shot pop at 125. His best showings are built around the overhand right and counter left hand.

His signature weapons:

• Counter left hand. Against Imanol Rodriguez he dropped an undefeated prospect cold with a counter left in Round 1, then blitzed with knees along the cage. He timed Rodriguez's forward entries perfectly.
• Overhand right over the top. Against Ronaldo Rodriguez in March 2025, his straight and overhand right dropped Rodriguez twice in Round 1, including a knockdown with about a minute left. That earned him his lone UFC win on a unanimous decision.
• Distance jabbing with reach. At 68 inches he likes to peck from range and counter, using low kicks and a probing jab.

The problem is the trend. Borjas has lost four of his last five and comes in off a Round 2 TKO loss to Imanol Rodriguez. His recent win percentage sits at 0.33.

Kevin Borjas's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio collapse after Round 1. This is the big one. Against Imanol Rodriguez he won Round 1 decisively, then faded badly and got stopped at 4:21 of Round 2. He gasses once the early finish does not come.
• Durability concerns. Three of his five losses are by stoppage, including a Round 2 TKO to Alessandro Costa at UFC 301. Once he is tired and against the cage, he gets finished, even by glancing shots.
• Poor takedown defense. His takedown defense ratio sits at 0.27. Lima averages over 2 takedown attempts per fight with strong submission threat. If Borjas tires, Lima can take him down and finish, exactly the recipe Lima used on Raposo and Barez.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Lima's volume jab and low kick rhythm is the perfect tool against a counter-puncher who needs you to lunge in. Lima does not have to overextend; he can chip from range like he did against dos Santos and let Borjas's output differential pile up. Borjas's average striking output differential is a brutal -61.2, meaning he gets outlanded badly. Lima outlands almost everyone.

Borjas's path is simple and real: land the counter left or overhand right early, the same shots that dropped both Rodriguez men. Lima's tendency to raise his chin on straight retreats is the one window Borjas can exploit. But Lima rarely fights recklessly, and he showed against Raposo he can counter the left hand rather than walk onto it.

The cleaner comparison is the Imanol Rodriguez fight. Borjas hurt a sharp prospect early, then faded and got finished. Lima is more disciplined than Rodriguez and carries a far better gas tank and grappling game. If this goes past Round 1, the pattern points one direction.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Borjas's only window. His power is most dangerous in Round 1 when he is fresh and can time Lima's entries. Lima should manage distance with the jab and low kick rather than brawl.
• Mid-fight adjustments: As Borjas slows, Lima's pressure, elbows, and takedown threat take over. The Imanol Rodriguez fight showed Borjas becomes a stationary target by Round 2.
• Later rounds: Lima's cardio and submission game (1.47 subs per fight) make him the clear finisher if the fight drags. Borjas has been stopped late before, and Lima's body work and clinch elbows compound damage over time.

Analysis and Key Points

• Lima's jab and low kick volume neutralizes Borjas's counter game by not giving him a target to time, much like he frustrated dos Santos.
• Borjas's cardio cliff is documented and severe. He faded and got TKO'd in Round 2 by Imanol Rodriguez after winning Round 1.
• Lima's grappling edge is decisive. Borjas defends only 27% of takedowns and has zero submission threat. Lima subbed both Barez and Raposo.
• Borjas's puncher's chance is real early. Watch Round 1, where his overhand right and counter left dropped both Rodriguez men.
• Warning: Borjas was just KO'd in his last fight and has been stopped three times. That durability red flag can repeat against a volume striker who builds damage.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Andre Lima with a modest score of 31, and the SHAP features tell you why:

• Odds moved the score up the most, by 18, reflecting Lima as a heavy -600 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 7, capturing Lima's massive striking gap (+17.0 vs Borjas's -34.2).
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 3, again favoring Lima's recent damage edge.
• recent_win_perc added 2, Lima at 1.00 versus Borjas at 0.33.
• striking_impact_differential added 2, and trueskill, win_streak_diff, average_striking_output_differential, and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight each added 1.

The striking differential and win trends are doing the heavy lifting alongside the odds.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI is 2-for-2 on Andre Lima, correctly calling his wins over Barez (0.69) and dos Santos (0.60). That is a clean record on the man it is picking here.

On Borjas, the model is 2-for-3, correct on the Sumudaerji and Alessandro Costa fights, but wrong when it picked Ronaldo Rodriguez over Borjas. That miss is a caution flag: the model has underrated Borjas's power before, and his one-shot ability is exactly the variable that can break a prediction.

Conclusion

Borjas brings legit power and a Round 1 puncher's chance, but the body of evidence is one-sided. Lima is the sharper, fresher, more complete fighter with better cardio, a real grappling game, and a perfect 11-0 record. Borjas fades hard after Round 1 and gets finished when tired, while Lima builds damage and threatens submissions late. Survive the early power and Lima takes over. WolfTicketsAI sides with Andre Lima, and the path to victory is clear.