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Analysis: Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Allan Nascimento to Win

Score: 6
Odds:
Allan Nascimento: -175
Mitch Raposo: +145

Allan Nascimento's Breakdown

You're looking at a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with 15 career submission wins and a four-fight win streak. "Puro Osso" trains out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima next to Charles Oliveira, and his game mirrors Oliveira's: hurt you on the feet, then drag you to the mat and choke you out.

His signature weapons:

• Counter elbow to submission chain. Against Cody Durden in November 2025, Nascimento lost nearly every second of the fight on the feet. Then in Round 2, as Durden marched forward, Nascimento landed a massive counter elbow that dropped him, immediately attacked the neck, and locked the anaconda choke for the tap at 3:13. That is his entire blueprint in one sequence.

• Scramble-based reversals and back takes. Against Carlos Hernandez in 2023, he secured a takedown, took the back, locked a tight body triangle, and finished with a modified rear-naked choke (hidden wrist grip) when Hernandez tried to roll free in Round 1. Against Jafel Filho in 2025, his scramble reversals stole rounds even while Filho controlled the action, because Filho over-committed on back takes and fell right into top position for Nascimento.

• Calf kicks to manage pressure. Against Durden, his calf kicks visibly slowed the forward pressure by Round 2, buying him time to find the counter.

His technical evolution is mixed. The Durden win showed elite finishing instinct, but the Filho fight (after a two-year layoff) exposed degraded speed and the inability to hold dominant positions. He won, but he looked slower than the fighter who beat Hadley and Hernandez.

Allan Nascimento's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Pressure boxing eats him alive early. This is the big one. Against Durden, he was "repeatedly getting tee'd off on by massive combinations," took a straight right that bloodied his nose in Round 2, and did almost nothing in Round 1 but token leg kicks. His Striking Defense Percentage sits at just 43%. A pressure boxer who keeps composure and doesn't lunge can pile up points on him.

• Low output and passive starts. He attempted zero takedowns in Round 1 against Durden and absorbed damage while waiting. If he can't find the finish, he falls behind on the cards. Dan Tom's pre-fight read held true: if he doesn't finish by the seven-minute mark, things go downhill fast.

• Takedown defense and positional retention. He carries a roughly 30% takedown defense rate, and against Ulanbekov in 2021 he was smothered by top control for long stretches, his output declining each round. He also tends to trade dominant position for submission attempts, which good wrestlers punish.

Mitch Raposo's Breakdown

Raposo is a 27-year-old BJJ black belt with state wrestling credentials and an undefeated kickboxing background. He finally broke through for his first UFC win at UFC 321, but he sits at 1-2 in the promotion.

His signature weapons:

• Overhand right against taller men. Against Azat Maksum in October 2025, Raposo built his entire game plan around the overhand right despite giving up six inches of reach. He rocked Maksum with it in Round 2. This is his money punch.

• Wall-walking and takedown recovery. Against Maksum, he was taken down repeatedly but refused to stay down, posting and wall-walking back to his feet every time, denying Maksum any meaningful ground-and-pound. That recovery ability is genuinely elite.

• Forward pressure and in-and-out boxing. He cuts the cage, darts into range, lands, and exits. He showed flashes of offensive grappling too: an omoplata attempt and a no-arm guillotine that forced Maksum's fence grab and point deduction.

His evolution is real but recent. The Maksum fight was a more aggressive, power-focused Raposo than the one who landed only nine significant strikes in 15 minutes against Sumudaerji. The multi-camp approach (Regiment, New England Cartel with Rob Font and Calvin Kattar, and Xtreme Couture with Eric Nicksick) seems to be paying off.

Mitch Raposo's Technical Vulnerabilities

• One-dimensional wrestling with no finishing offense. Against Sumudaerji in April 2025, he logged over four minutes of control time and landed nine total significant strikes. Zero ground-and-pound, zero submission threats. If he wrestles Nascimento and can't damage him, he's handing the BJJ black belt scramble opportunities, which is suicidal.

• Slow starts. He lost Round 1 against Maksum on two cards and dropped his debut to Andre Lima partly by falling behind. Against a finisher like Nascimento, an early hole is dangerous.

• Reach and range struggles against rangier fighters. Nascimento holds a 69-inch reach to Raposo's 64. Sumudaerji's length kept Raposo at distance and out-pointed him 45-9 in significant strikes. Range management is a recurring problem.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash because both men want similar things but from opposite ends.

What Nascimento can exploit: Raposo loves to wrestle, but that plays directly into Nascimento's hands. Every scramble is a chance for Nascimento to hunt the back, exactly how he reversed Filho and choked Hernandez. If Raposo shoots and over-commits like Filho did, he ends up on bottom against an anaconda or rear-naked choke. The counter elbow that dropped Durden is also a live threat, because Raposo presses forward aggressively and darts into range, the same forward momentum Durden gave him.

What Raposo can exploit: The overhand right is the danger. Nascimento's 43% striking defense and his habit of absorbing pressure boxing early is precisely the look that got him battered by Durden. If Raposo lands that overhand the way he rocked Maksum, and then disciplines himself to stay off the mat, he can bank rounds. The Durden fight is the blueprint for beating Nascimento on points: pressure him, land clean upstairs, and don't walk into the counter.

The key lesson from history: Durden was winning every minute until he marched into the elbow. Raposo must avoid that exact mistake.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Raposo to press forward with the overhand right and Nascimento to circle, throw calf kicks, and look for counters, just like the Durden opening. Raposo likely banks early striking minutes if he stays disciplined.

• Mid-fight adjustments: This is where Nascimento historically finds his finish. If Raposo gets greedy and shoots takedowns, or over-commits on combinations, the scramble and the counter elbow become live. Recall the Hernandez finish came off a takedown and back take, and the Durden finish came mid-Round 2 off forward pressure.

• Late rounds: If the fight stays standing and Raposo keeps it off the mat, his cardio and recovery favor him on the cards. Nascimento's output declines late, as it did against Ulanbekov. But Raposo's history of doing nothing from top position means wrestling won't save him if he can't strike.

Analysis and Key Points

• Nascimento's finish blueprint is repeatable. The counter elbow into anaconda against Durden is exactly the kind of sequence that catches forward-pressing fighters like Raposo.
• Raposo's overhand right is the X-factor. He rocked Maksum with it; Nascimento's 43% striking defense is vulnerable to clean power upstairs.
• Wrestling into a BJJ ace is a trap. Raposo's nine-significant-strike performance against Sumudaerji shows he can't capitalize on top, and every scramble feeds Nascimento's back takes.
• Warning, recent KO/pressure damage: Nascimento was badly hurt and bloodied by Durden's combinations just last fight. Raposo carries real power. The same thing could happen again if Nascimento starts passive.
• Trend watch: Raposo has lost 2 of his last 3 UFC fights and is only 1-2 in the promotion. His lone win came over a fighter who missed weight and was then cut.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data shows what drove the score of 6 toward Nascimento:

• Odds was the single biggest factor, pushing the score up by 6.0, reflecting Nascimento's -175 favorite status.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+3.0) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+2.0) favor Nascimento, who lands with more meaning per strike.
• Recent Win Percentage (+2.0) leans Nascimento, riding four straight wins versus Raposo's 1-2 UFC mark.
• Reach (+2.0) credits Nascimento's 69-inch span over Raposo's 64.

Pulling the other way:

• Striking Defense Percentage (-2.0) is the model flagging Nascimento's real weakness, that 43% defense.
• TrueSkill (-1.0), Win Streak Difference (-1.0), and Recent Striking Impact Differential (-1.0) all shaved a bit off.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (-1.0) reflects Raposo's high wrestling volume.
• Significant Striking Output Differential (+1.0) and Average Striking Output Differential (+1.0) nudged the pick back toward Nascimento.

The net result is a clear but not overwhelming lean to Nascimento.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI is a perfect 3-for-3 predicting Allan Nascimento, including the correct Round 2 submission call last time out. That's a strong vote of confidence. The picture on Raposo is shakier: the model went 1-for-2 on him, and notably got it wrong at UFC 321 when it picked Maksum and Raposo pulled the upset. That miss is a caution. Raposo has underdog magic and the model has underrated him before.

Conclusion

Raposo's overhand right and elite takedown recovery make him live, and his Round 1 against most opponents is dangerous. But wrestling into a Charles Oliveira training partner is a losing proposition, and forward pressure is exactly what walked Durden into the choke. Nascimento finds the finish in the scramble or off the counter, likely by submission in the second half of the fight. WolfTicketsAI sides with Allan Nascimento, and so should you.