Analysis: Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dom Mar Fan to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Dom Mar Fan: +170
Kody Steele: -205

Dom Mar Fan's Breakdown

Dom Mar Fan enters this fight off a dominant unanimous decision win over Sangwook Kim at UFC 325, where he swept all three scorecards 30-27. That performance showcased exactly why he's dangerous for a wrestler like Steele.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Elbows: When Kim tried to initiate grappling exchanges in round one, Mar Fan answered with sharp elbows that disrupted Kim's momentum. After escaping back control, he immediately scored with an elbow that changed the complexion of the round. This short-range weapon punishes opponents who want to close distance.

2. Ground-and-Pound from Top Position: In round two against Kim, Mar Fan secured top position near the fence and unloaded head strikes that opened cuts on both sides of Kim's face. His ability to reverse positions and then inflict damage from top is a legitimate threat.

3. Defensive Wrestling and Scrambles: Kim got Mar Fan's back about 90 seconds into round one, but Mar Fan capitalized on Kim failing to secure both hooks. He reversed to gain control position. By round three, he was stuffing takedowns with good inside shots and positioning.

Technical Evolution: Mar Fan showed improved takedown defense as the fight progressed against Kim. His pre-fight strategy was to "win too many of the wrestling exchanges" and take his opponent into deep waters. He executed that plan perfectly, absorbing early pressure before capitalizing on his superior conditioning in rounds two and three.

The stats back this up. Mar Fan lands 6.6 significant strikes per minute with a 57% accuracy rate. His striking output differential sits at +39 for significant strikes, meaning he's consistently outlanding opponents by a wide margin.

Dom Mar Fan's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Early Round Cage Positioning: Mar Fan repeatedly allowed himself to be backed up to the fence against Kim, particularly in rounds one and three. This enabled Kim to work his grappling game early. Against a wrestler like Steele, getting stuck on the fence in the opening minutes could invite trouble.

2. Initial Grappling Defense: Kim secured back control in round one before Mar Fan adjusted. Against a more dangerous finisher, that early vulnerability could prove costly. Mar Fan's takedown defense ratio of 0.11 is concerning on paper, though context matters since he often reverses positions.

3. Striking Defense: Mar Fan's striking defense percentage sits at 42.5%, meaning he absorbs a fair amount of what's thrown at him. Against Kim's limited offense this wasn't exploited, but a more active striker could find openings.

Kody Steele's Breakdown

Steele comes in off a unanimous decision loss to Rongzhu in his UFC debut back in February 2025. That fight exposed some serious issues with his approach.

Signature Techniques:

1. Jab-to-Takedown Entry: Steele's primary offensive pattern involves throwing a jab and immediately level changing to shoot for the legs. It's a wrestling-first approach that works when opponents respect the jab.

2. Right Hand Follow-up: Against Rongzhu, Steele showed he could adapt mid-fight. After Rongzhu started timing his jab-to-shot with uppercuts, Steele followed a jab with a right hand instead of shooting. He caught Rongzhu with both hands down looking for the uppercut counter. That was probably the cleanest punch Steele landed all fight.

Technical Concerns: Steele's striking accuracy is a brutal 28.2%. He attempted 12.9 head strikes per minute against Rongzhu but only landed 3.1. His significant striking impact differential sits at -66, meaning he was massively outworked on the feet. When his wrestling gets neutralized, Steele doesn't have a Plan B.

Kody Steele's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Predictable Offensive Pattern: The jab-to-shot entry became readable against Rongzhu, who timed uppercuts as Steele ducked down. Any opponent who studies tape will see this coming. Mar Fan's clinch elbows could punish these predictable level changes.

2. Striking Defense When Wrestling Fails: Rongzhu was hitting Steele at will and getting away from most of Steele's punches. When the wrestling doesn't work, Steele gets picked apart on the feet. His striking defense percentage of 48% looks decent but doesn't tell the full story of how cleanly he was getting hit.

3. Abandons Body Work Under Pressure: Steele showed body attacks on the Contender Series but completely abandoned them against Rongzhu. He only does "high level things when very confident" he's better than his opponent. That's a mental edge Mar Fan can exploit.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup comes down to whether Steele can impose his wrestling before Mar Fan's striking volume and clinch work take over.

Mar Fan's Tools Against Steele's Tendencies: - Mar Fan's clinch elbows are tailor-made to punish Steele's jab-to-shot entries. When Steele ducks down, he's eating an elbow. - Mar Fan's ability to reverse positions from bottom means even successful takedowns might not stay successful. He escaped Kim's back control and reversed to top position. - The 4-inch reach advantage (75" vs 71") lets Mar Fan work at range before Steele can close distance.

Steele's Tools Against Mar Fan's Tendencies: - Mar Fan's tendency to get backed to the fence early could give Steele opportunities to work his wrestling against the cage. - If Steele can secure top position and maintain it (unlike Kim), Mar Fan's 11% takedown defense ratio suggests he'll have to work from bottom. - Steele's 100% takedown defense ratio means Mar Fan probably won't be taking him down.

Historical Parallel: This resembles Steele vs Rongzhu in many ways. Rongzhu had superior striking, read Steele's patterns, and made him pay. Mar Fan brings similar striking volume with added grappling reversals.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Steele will look to establish his wrestling immediately. Mar Fan tends to give up cage position early, which could invite trouble. But if Mar Fan can survive the initial wrestling flurry and land elbows in the clinch, he'll start building a lead.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: This is where Mar Fan thrives. Against Kim, he absorbed early pressure then capitalized as his opponent faded. Steele showed some adaptation against Rongzhu (the jab-right hand adjustment), but his overall striking toolkit is limited. Mar Fan's conditioning advantage should become apparent.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Mar Fan's cardio is a weapon. He predicted he'd take Kim into deep waters and drown him. That's exactly what happened. If this fight goes into round three, expect Mar Fan to be the fresher fighter with more offensive options.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Volume Mismatch: Mar Fan lands 6.6 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy. Steele lands 3.9 at 28% accuracy. That's a massive gap.
• Steele's Predictability: The jab-to-shot pattern got him countered repeatedly by Rongzhu. Mar Fan's elbows will punish the same entries.
• Grappling Reversals: Even if Steele gets takedowns, Mar Fan has shown he can escape and reverse. Kim had back control and couldn't keep it.
• Conditioning Edge: Mar Fan's game plan against Kim was to exhaust him in later rounds. It worked. Steele's output dropped as his fight with Rongzhu progressed.
• Reach Advantage: Mar Fan's 4-inch reach edge lets him work at distance before Steele can close.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data tells a clear story here. The model's confidence comes primarily from striking differentials:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 15 points to the prediction. Mar Fan's +31 compared to Steele's -66 is a 97-point swing in Mar Fan's favor.
• Striking Impact Differential added 8 points. Same story with overall strikes.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential and Recent Striking Impact Differential each added 2 points, confirming the pattern holds in recent fights.
• Reach added 1 point. That 4-inch advantage matters.
• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each added 1 point.
• Odds decreased the score by 3 points. Steele is the betting favorite at -205, so the model is going against the market here.

The model sees Mar Fan as the superior striker by a wide margin, and Steele's lone UFC fight confirmed he struggles when he can't wrestle.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history for either fighter. This is Mar Fan's first UFC fight after winning the Road to UFC tournament, and Steele's second UFC appearance. The limited sample size means some uncertainty exists, but the model's confidence comes from the stark statistical differences between these two.

Conclusion

Steele enters as the betting favorite, but the numbers don't support that line. Mar Fan outstrikes opponents by 39 significant strikes per fight while Steele gets outworked by 32. Steele's predictable jab-to-shot entries will eat elbows in the clinch. And when the wrestling doesn't work, Steele has shown he doesn't have answers on the feet.

Mar Fan's path to victory is clear: survive any early wrestling attempts, land elbows when Steele closes distance, and grind him down as the fight progresses. That's exactly what he did to Kim, and Steele is a less complete fighter than Kim was.

WolfTicketsAI takes Dom Mar Fan as the underdog at +170.