Analysis: Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Erin Blanchfield to Win

Score: 24
Odds:
Erin Blanchfield: -325
Jasmine Jasudavicius: +260

Erin Blanchfield's Breakdown

Blanchfield is one of the sharpest grapplers in the women's flyweight division, and her recent run shows a fighter who keeps adding layers to her ground game. Against Tracy Cortez in November 2025, she showed off that signature inside trip in round 2, the same technique she compared favorably to Henry Cejudo's. When Cortez scrambled up, Blanchfield chased her down with a double leg, locked hands under the butt, and rode the position into a crucifix. From there she threaded her legs Barrett Yoshida-style and finished with a rare rear naked choke from the crucifix. That is high-level, creative grappling you rarely see at 125.

Her signature weapons:

• Inside trip from the clinch. She used it to flatten Cortez in round 2 (2025) and to put Jessica Andrade on her back in round 2 (2023) by stepping to the overhooked side before passing the open guard. It is her cleanest entry when wrestling in tight.
• Chain wrestling into back control and submissions. Against Miranda Maverick (2021), she hit a double leg in round 1, then rolled through to the back in round 2 and finished a rear naked choke without both hooks, prioritizing the throat over position. Against Molly McCann (2022) she used the crucifix from side control to set up the choke and never took a punch.
• Crossbody ride top control. Against Rose Namajunas (2024) she neutralized Rose's trademark fence escapes in round 2 by controlling the hips and legs, preventing the scoot-to-the-fence standup that worked against Rose's prior opponents.

Her striking has improved but still serves the wrestling. The jab-cross and step-up inside low kick are mostly entries, not standalone weapons. Her technical evolution is real on the mat, from basic back takes to crucifix finishes and stockade control, but the striking remains the weak link.

Erin Blanchfield's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking at distance against rangy strikers. The Manon Fiorot loss (2024) is the blueprint. Across five rounds Fiorot's 91% takedown defense stuffed the double legs, and her side kicks and check hooks punished Blanchfield every time she reset with her chin high. By round 5 Blanchfield's output cratered. Any opponent who can keep it standing and punish her entries has a path.
• Chin-high resets after combinations. Noted against Andrade (2023) and Alpar (2021), she throws the 1-2 with both hands extended and lingers in range. Fiorot exploited this repeatedly. Jasudavicius does not have the striking craft to exploit it the way Fiorot did, but it is worth flagging.
• Fence wrestling against stronger grapplers. Taila Santos (2023) manhandled her in the clinch for a round and a half, using underhooks to stand her back up and deny takedowns. Santos only lost because she gifted top position with a botched trip. Jasudavicius is physically strong and clinch-heavy, so this is the most relevant warning.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Breakdown

Jasudavicius is a grinding, grappling-first flyweight who wins with volume clinch work, pressure wrestling, and suffocating top control. She now holds the second-most control time in division history after her April 2026 win over Karine Silva. Her best performances come when she drags opponents into deep water and drowns them.

Her signature weapons:

• Pressure wrestling and persistent takedowns. Against Karine Silva (2026) she kept shooting despite early failures and submission threats, finishing takedowns in rounds 2 and 3. Against Priscila Cachoeira (2024) her takedowns were described as effortless, running the pipe on single legs into dominant control.
• Submission defense while completing takedowns. The Silva fight is the clearest example. She got caught in a standing guillotine in round 2 and powered through to side control anyway. She also got both arms inside a round 1 triangle to kill it. That composure under submission pressure is her most improved trait.
• Crucifix and control-based ground striking. Against Ariane da Silva (2024) she used the bounded crucifix to pin and pity-patter strikes for control time. Against Andrade (2025) she took the back and finished a rear naked choke, earning her BJJ black belt in the cage.

Her evolution shows a sharper submission game, back-to-back D'Arce chokes, and a black belt finishing instinct. But the striking is still a liability.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking defense and chin against power. The Manon Fiorot loss (October 2025) is a serious red flag. She ate a straight left down the middle at 1:14 of round 1, did the "chicken dance," and got finished. That was the first stoppage of her career. Heuristic warning: she was recently KO'd, and a clean power shot could end her again. Blanchfield is not a knockout artist, but Jasudavicius has now shown her chin can be cracked.
• Takedown entries that expose her neck. She repeatedly shoots into guillotines and gets caught, as seen against Silva (2026) in round 2. Blanchfield is an elite guillotine and front-choke artist. She finished JJ Aldrich (2022) off exactly this kind of exposed-neck shot. This is a dangerous mismatch for Jasmine.
• Slow starts and early striking deficit. Natalia Silva (2022) outclassed her on the feet and even reversed her clinch with a head tilt. Against Silva (2026) she lost round 1. If she cannot close distance early, she falls behind.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus grappler, but the levels are not equal. Blanchfield's submission creativity and scramble awareness are a tier above Jasudavicius's control-first approach.

• Blanchfield techniques that exploit Jasmine's gaps: The guillotine and front-choke game is the obvious one. Jasudavicius shoots into chokes, and Blanchfield finished Aldrich (2022) and converts scrambles better than anyone Jasmine has faced. Blanchfield's crucifix-to-back-take, the one that finished Cortez and McCann, is a direct counter to Jasmine's habit of turtling and giving up the back during grappling exchanges.
• Jasmine techniques that trouble Blanchfield: Her best path is the Taila Santos blueprint, using size and underhooks to stuff Blanchfield's fence takedowns and grind from top. If Jasmine can reverse a scramble and establish her heavy top control, she can steal control-time rounds. But Santos needed to out-muscle Blanchfield for a round and a half, and still lost.
• Historical parallel: The Cortez fight (2025) is the closest comp. Cortez is a similar pressure grappler, and Blanchfield dragged her into a scramble and finished her in round 2 with the crucifix choke. Jasudavicius fights much like Cortez, only with a worse chin.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Jasmine will pressure and try to clinch along the fence, the way she did against Hansen and Maverick. Blanchfield's danger is her striking entries, but on the mat she is the quicker, more opportunistic grappler. Expect early scrambles where Blanchfield hunts the neck.
• Mid-fight: If Jasmine lands a takedown, she grinds. But Blanchfield is a nightmare off her back and in scrambles, exactly where Santos got reversed. Blanchfield's crucifix and back-take threats escalate the longer they grapple.
• Championship rounds: Jasmine's cardio is elite and she wins late, as she showed against Mayra Bueno Silva (2025) and Karine Silva (2026). But Blanchfield also pushes a relentless pace and took Fiorot five hard rounds. Cardio is not the edge Jasmine usually enjoys here.

Analysis and Key Points

• Blanchfield's guillotine game vs Jasmine's reckless entries is the fight-defining mismatch. Jasmine ate a standing guillotine against Karine Silva and survived; Blanchfield finishes those.
• Jasmine's best hope is the Taila Santos clinch grind, using strength to stuff takedowns and control from top. But even Santos lost once the scramble opened up.
• Blanchfield's crucifix-to-back finish that stopped Cortez and McCann directly punishes Jasmine's turtle-and-defend tendencies.
• Warning: Jasmine was just KO'd by Fiorot with a straight left in 74 seconds. Her chin is now a known question, though Blanchfield is not the striker to exploit it.
• Warning: Blanchfield struggles with rangy strikers who stuff her shots, but Jasmine is not that fighter. Jasmine wants to grapple, which plays into Blanchfield's strongest phase.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Blanchfield at a confidence score of 24, driven mostly by the odds.

• Odds added 19 points, the dominant factor, reflecting Blanchfield as a heavy -325 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each added 2, favoring Blanchfield's cleaner, higher-impact output.
• recent_win_perc added 2 and striking_defense_percentage added 2, both leaning Blanchfield.
• recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each nudged the score up by 1.
• trueskill actually subtracted 1, a minor pull, but Blanchfield's Mu of 38.8 is far above Jasmine's 28.1, so this is noise rather than a real concern.

The relatively low final score of 24 reflects a grappler-versus-grappler fight where the model sees a real favorite but not a lock.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an excellent record on Blanchfield, going correct on six of seven predictions. The only miss was the Fiorot fight (2024), where the model picked Blanchfield at 0.57 and she lost a decision to a rangy striker. That is the exact style that beats her, and Jasmine is not that style, so the miss does not apply here.

On Jasudavicius, the model has been strong, correctly calling her wins over Karine Silva, Andrade, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Ariane da Silva, and correctly picking Fiorot to beat her. The one relevant miss was picking against her and losing on the Maverick fight. Overall the model reads both fighters well, which adds confidence here.

Conclusion

Jasudavicius is a tough, improved grappler with elite cardio, but she is walking into the worst possible stylistic matchup. Her habit of shooting into chokes feeds directly into Blanchfield's best finishing tool, and her chin is now a proven question mark after the Fiorot KO. Blanchfield is the more creative scrambler, the sharper submission hunter, and the clear favorite. WolfTicketsAI sides with Erin Blanchfield, most likely by submission in the middle rounds.