The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Rizvan Kuniev
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Final Confidence: 21.6
Value: +20.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 18
Odds:
Rizvan Kuniev: -305
Tyrell Fortune: +245
Kuniev is the kind of heavyweight who quietly ruins the night of specialists. In his UFC debut against Curtis Blaydes, one of the division's most feared wrestlers, he stuffed 13 of 15 takedowns and turned a wrestling ambush into a striking clinic. After eating a first-round double-leg and getting stapled to the fence, he flipped the script in rounds 2 and 3, and here's how he did it.
His bread and butter is the jab-to-straight-right at range. Against Blaydes in round 2 he doubled up the jab and dropped in a clean straight right around the 2:00 mark, the shot that swung the momentum and started marking up Blaydes' face. He landed 24 to 16 that round and looked like the more polished boxer by a wide margin.
His second signature weapon is punishing level changes with knees and uppercuts. Every time Blaydes ducked in, Kuniev met him with a well-timed uppercut, and early in round 3 he cracked Blaydes with a knee to the chin as the veteran stepped forward. He also landed a flying knee in round 2 that hurt him. This counter-on-entry timing is exactly what makes him dangerous against wrestlers who telegraph shots.
Third is takedown defense mixed with wall-walking. He scrambles back to his feet quickly and denies grapplers their game. He carried this into his win over Jailton Almeida, where he flat-out refused to be taken down, forcing an elite grappler into an ugly clinch stalemate along the fence.
His technical evolution is clear. He came into the UFC billed as a Dagestani wrestler, then showed he is really a Sanda-based striker who wins by denying grappling and out-boxing at range. Against Almeida he leaned even harder into fence defense and clinch neutralizing.
Fortune is a decorated wrestler with legit one-shot power, coming off a short-notice unanimous decision win over the No. 8 ranked Marcin Tybura in his UFC debut. That is a real scalp, but the manner of the win tells the story you need.
His top weapon is the explosive double-leg into cage control. About a minute into round 1 against Tybura he shot a fast, authoritative double and pinned him against the fence, then stayed heavy on top pounding away. His NCAA Division II title background is real, and this is his path to any round he wins.
His second tool is the power straight right. He connected with two clean straight rights late in round 2 against Tybura, and his career shows 11 KO wins with eight in the first round. He picks single big shots rather than combinations.
Third is transition striking, catching opponents as they stand. When Tybura tried to wall-walk up in round 1, Fortune tagged him with a big right hand on the way up.
The concerning trend: his output falls off a cliff after round 1. He conserved so much energy against Tybura that rounds 2 and 3 got close, and his round 3 duck-under was immediately stuffed. Pre-fight scouting flagged that he "can become tentative, struggling to throw enough volume to win close rounds." His camp at Kill Cliff FC and his own comments admit he needs to be better.
This is a classic wrestler-versus-takedown-defense-and-boxing puzzle, and it maps almost perfectly onto Kuniev's Blaydes fight.
Fortune's only reliable path is the early double-leg and top control, the same shot Blaydes used to steal round 1. But Kuniev proved against Blaydes, a far more accomplished wrestler than Fortune, that he can stuff shots at an 87% clip and scramble back up. If Fortune's first-round takedown gets denied, his volume history says he has no plan B on the feet.
On the feet Kuniev's jab-to-straight-right and knee-on-entry combination is tailor-made for a low-volume power striker who steps straight in. Fortune walks forward and loads single shots. That is exactly the kind of predictable entry Kuniev punished against Blaydes with uppercuts and knees. Fortune's one puncher's chance is that round-one power, and Kuniev has a durable chin that never wobbled against Blaydes' ground-and-pound reputation.
The one live danger is the fence. If Fortune can drag this into extended body-lock control the way Blaydes did in round 1, he can bank rounds Kuniev struggles to reclaim on activity.
The model's confidence of 18 is modest, and the SHAP data explains why. The single biggest driver was odds, adding 17 points and reflecting Kuniev's clear favorite status at -305. Significant striking impact differential added 4 and recent significant striking impact differential added 2, both pointing to Kuniev's cleaner, harder striking at range. Smaller nudges came from trueskill, striking impact differential, reach, and recent significant striking output differential, each adding a point, plus a point from recent significant striking defense percentage.
Pulling the other way, recent win percentage cut the score by 2, which makes sense given Kuniev sits at a recent 33% while Fortune is at 86%. Striking defense percentage shaved off another point. That tug-of-war is why this lands at a cautious 18 rather than a runaway number.
The track record here is a caution flag. WolfTicketsAI's only logged prediction on Kuniev picked Almeida over him at a 0.60 score, and that was wrong. Kuniev won by unanimous decision. So the model has already underrated Kuniev once. There is no prior prediction history on Fortune, which adds uncertainty on his side. The lesson from the miss actually reinforces this pick: the model previously bet against Kuniev's ability to neutralize a grappler and got burned, and now it is siding with him in a nearly identical stylistic matchup.
Fortune's best chance lives in the first five minutes, on the back of a big double-leg and a heavy right hand. But Kuniev already solved a tougher version of this exact problem in Blaydes, stuffing takedowns at will and out-boxing a grinder at range. As the fight ages, Fortune's volume fades and Kuniev sharpens. WolfTicketsAI is right to side with Rizvan Kuniev. Back him to weather the early wrestling, take over on the feet, and win the later rounds going away.
| Stat | Rizvan Kuniev | Tyrell Fortune | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 34 | 36 | 33 | |
| Height | 76" | 72" | 75" | |
| Reach | 76" | 75" | 78" | |
| Win Percentage | 81.25% | 85.71% | 82.92% | |
| Wins | 14 | 18 | ||
| Losses | 3 | 4 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 1 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 0 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 57.55% | 60.49% | 47.98% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 43.78% | 50.85% | 42.91% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.333 | 3.267 | 4.963 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.933 | 2.000 | 3.554 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.915 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 4.50% | -36.00% | 4.36% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 0.50% | -17.00% | 2.57% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 21.50% | -72.00% | 5.51% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 19.50% | -51.00% | 3.35% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 52.50% | 138.78% | 67.07% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 85.23% | 210.00% | 83.64% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 46.30% | 57.27% | 42.05% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.226 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.261 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.360 | |
| Takedown Defense | 9.52% | 100.00% | 82.27% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0.00% | 60.00% | 26.06% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.300 | 1.600 | 2.547 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 5.900 | 3.533 | 5.631 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.700 | 1.467 | 1.894 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.500 | 0.400 | 0.590 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.667 | 0.400 | 0.771 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.500 | 1.333 | 0.651 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.417 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.471 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.700 | 0.333 | 0.540 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.033 | 0.400 | 0.439 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.433 | 0.400 | 0.605 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.667 | 0.733 | 0.360 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 7, 2026 | Heavyweight | Jailton Almeida | Rizvan Kuniev | Rizvan Kuniev | |
| June 21, 2025 | Heavyweight | Curtis Blaydes | Rizvan Kuniev | Curtis Blaydes |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28, 2026 | Heavyweight | Marcin Tybura | Tyrell Fortune | Tyrell Fortune |