Analysis: Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Fili to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Andre Fili: -160
Kai Kamaka III: +135

Andre Fili's Breakdown

Fili is a 14-year UFC veteran with a tool bag most fighters would envy, but he's walking into this one on the back of two straight losses, including a nasty Round 2 TKO against Vinicius Oliveira in June 2026. The book on "Touchy" is well established. He's a switch-hitting counter striker who wants to draw you onto his left hook, manage range with the jab, and pick his moments.

His signature weapons:

• Counter left hook off the lean-back draw. This is the old Fili trade-off. Against Christian Rodriguez in August 2025, he weathered early explosiveness, then started clapping Rodriguez with the counter left hook every time the younger man reached. As the fight wore on and Rodriguez slowed, that left hook became a metronome. It won Fili the split.
• Body kicks and body work. Against Oliveira in Round 1, Fili had the Brazilian grimacing and backing up off repeated body kicks. He hurt a rising finisher with midsection work before fading. The body attack is real when he commits to it.
• Reactive double-leg takedowns. Against Cub Swanson in June 2024, Fili timed reactive doubles as Swanson marched forward, managing pace and nullifying power. His stat line backs this up: 4.8 takedowns attempted per fight and a varied attack that keeps strikers guessing.

His technical evolution has leaned toward patience and pace management over the reckless brawler of his early years. But the recent arc tells a darker story. Fili has lost 2 of his last 3, and the Oliveira loss showed a man who can no longer absorb the damage he once could.

Andre Fili's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Calf kick susceptibility. This is the glaring one. Oliveira hacked away at Fili's lead leg from the opening bell in June 2026, and by Round 2 Fili was visibly limping, unable to move or maintain his jab distance. Kamaka is a dedicated leg kicker who did the exact same thing to Dakota Hope and Danny Chavez. This is a flashing red light.
• Takedowns off his own kicks. Fili gets dumped when he throws kicks. Against Christian Rodriguez he was taken down off a body kick, a recurring issue dating back to the Sodiq Yusuff cut-kick sequence. Any time he commits to a kick, his base is compromised.
• Cage pressure and trigger hesitancy. When Oliveira trapped him on the fence, Fili couldn't create angles or escape, and he failed to finish Oliveira in Round 1 when he had him hurt. He hesitates on offense, and he gets stuck against the cage. At 36, that durability decline is a severe concern given he was just KO'd.

Kai Kamaka III's Breakdown

Kamaka is a wrestle-pressure fighter from Xtreme Couture who grinds, works the body, and leans on volume and cardio over 15 minutes. His career is built on decisions (78% of his wins), and he's a genuinely tough out. But he's 1-2 in his last three fights and coming off his own brutal Round 1 TKO loss to Luke Riley in July 2026.

His signature weapons:

• Sustained body work. This is Kamaka's calling card dating back to his UFC debut against Tony Kelley in August 2020, where his left hook to the liver dropped Kelley's output and set up takedowns. Against Dakota Hope in April 2026, his digging body shots and knees in Rounds 2 and 3 broke Hope down and won him the split.
• Low calf kicks. Kamaka targets the lead leg relentlessly. He landed 77% of his leg strikes against Riley and chewed up both Hope and Danny Chavez's front legs. This is precisely the weapon that ruined Fili's last fight.
• Wrestling and scrambles. His 0.82 takedown defense ratio is elite, and he reverses position well. Against TJ Brown he reversed takedowns and controlled from top. His takedown defense dwarfs Fili's.

His technical evolution shows a fighter who weathers early storms and takes over late, as he did against Hope. But the Riley loss exposed that elite power punchers can time him stepping in and end his night before his grind matters.

Kai Kamaka III's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin against power when stepping in. Riley timed Kamaka coming forward and dropped him with a clean right hand in July 2026, then swarmed for the finish. This was his first KO loss in six years, but it happened. Fili has counter-striking pedigree and finishing power historically (10 career KOs), and that counter left hook lives exactly in the lane Kamaka walks into.
• Early defensive boxing under pressure. Against Hope, Kamaka was backed to the cage and dropped in Round 1 before adjusting. He takes damage early and absorbs high volume (3.7 head strikes absorbed per minute). A sharp early starter can hurt him.
• Back exposure in grappling. Against Jonathan Pearce in 2020, Kamaka couldn't prevent back control and got finished by ground-and-pound. Fili has shown back-take and submission awareness historically, though this is a lower-probability path.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash of shared weapons. Both men rely on calf kicks, and both men have been destroyed by calf kicks in their most recent fight. Whoever establishes the leg kick first changes the geometry of this fight.

• Kamaka's calf kicks could exploit Fili's single biggest weakness. Oliveira wrote the blueprint in June 2026: attack the lead leg early, compromise Fili's movement, then pressure him to the cage where he can't escape. Kamaka does exactly this, and his pressure-grind style is tailor-made to trap a 36-year-old Fili on the fence.
• Fili's counter left hook could exploit Kamaka's chin. Riley just showed that timing Kamaka as he steps forward lands clean. Fili's entire game is the lean-back draw into the counter left hook, and Kamaka marches forward in straight lines. If Fili pulls the trigger, which has been his issue, he can catch Kamaka coming in.
• The wrestling edge belongs to Kamaka. Fili's 0.39 takedown defense is poor, and Kamaka's 0.82 takedown defense is elite. Fili can't out-grapple him, and if Fili throws kicks, Kamaka will dump him, just as Rodriguez did off the body kick.

The Christian Rodriguez fight is the model for how Fili wins: survive early, let the counters accumulate, pull ahead late. The Oliveira fight is the model for how Fili loses: calf kicks compromise him, pressure traps him, he gets finished.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Kamaka's calf kicks are the key variable. If he starts chopping Fili's lead leg the way Oliveira did, Fili's distance management collapses early. But Kamaka is historically a slow starter who gets backed up, and Fili's cleaner counters could tag him coming in. Expect a feeling-out phase with both men hunting the lead leg.
• Mid-fight adjustments: This is Kamaka's territory. He took over against Hope in Rounds 2 and 3 with body work and pressure as his opponent faded. Fili's cardio has historically dipped late, and his lead leg may already be compromised by then. If the fight is close after one round, the trend favors the pressure grinder.
• Championship rounds: Not applicable, this is a three-rounder, which actually helps Fili slightly since Kamaka's grind pays off most over 15 hard minutes. But Kamaka's cardio and body work still tilt the back half his way if he survives the early counters.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both men were just KO'd. Fili by Oliveira, Kamaka by Riley, both in 2026, both brutal. Per our KO heuristic, either man can be finished again. Fili at 36 is the bigger durability concern.
• The calf kick is the whole fight. Fili's lead leg got destroyed by Oliveira. Kamaka is a dedicated calf kicker. This is the clearest technical mismatch on the board, and it favors Kamaka.
• Fili's reach (74" vs 69") and counter power are his lanes. The counter left hook that dropped Rodriguez and the body kicks that hurt Oliveira are his paths. He must pull the trigger, which he failed to do against Oliveira.
• Kamaka's wrestling neutralizes Fili's kicks. Fili gets taken down off kicks, and Kamaka's TD defense is elite while Fili's is poor. Fili cannot win the grappling.
• Both are on skids. Fili lost 2 of 3, Kamaka lost 2 of 3. Two fighters trending down, which adds variance.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Fili with a modest score of 5, and the SHAP data tells a conflicted story:

• Odds were the biggest driver, pushing the score up by 5.0. The market has Fili as the -160 favorite, and the model respects that.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, which is notable since both men sit at 0.33 recently. Fili's edge here is marginal.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2.0 and significant_striking_impact_differential added 1.0, favoring Fili's cleaner striking impact.
• reach added 1.0, reflecting Fili's 5-inch advantage (74" vs 69").
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 1.0, crediting Fili's volume wrestling.
• striking_defense_percentage added 1.0.
• On the other side, trueskill pulled the score down by 2.0, which is meaningful. Fili's TrueSkill Mu (29.3) is far higher than Kamaka's (19.5), but Kamaka's high sigma (4.36 vs Fili's 2.32) signals uncertainty the model dislikes.
• recent_striking_impact_differential and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each shaved off 1.0.

The net is a thin, odds-driven lean toward Fili rather than a confident read.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed but recently strong record on Fili. It correctly called his last two losses (Oliveira and Delgado) and nailed the Lucas Almeida and Dan Ige fights. But it has whiffed on Fili before, picking against him in the Christian Rodriguez and Bill Algeo fights (both Fili wins) and wrongly favoring him against Melquizael Costa. On Kamaka, the model has exactly one data point: it correctly picked Riley to finish him in July 2026. That lone prediction is a caution flag, since the sample is thin and the model has never correctly predicted a Kamaka win or loss outside a finish it was already favored to see.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sides with Andre Fili, and the pick rides almost entirely on the betting market and his reach and striking-impact edges. Fili's path is clear: use the reach, land the counter left hook that dropped Rodriguez and just caught Kamaka's doppelganger in Riley, and avoid getting his lead leg chopped out from under him. The warning signs are loud, both men were just knocked out, Fili is 36 with fading durability, and Kamaka's calf kicks mirror the exact weapon that ended Fili's last fight. But the model's read is Fili by the slimmest of margins, and that is the call: Andre Fili to win.