Analysis: Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Noah Gugnon to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Kody Steele: -155
Noah Gugnon: +130

Kody Steele's Breakdown

Steele is a leg lock savant, maybe the best pure submission grappler in this matchup. Against Dom Mar Fan in May 2026, he showed off a Ryan Hall style Outside Funk entry from turtle, rolling over the top to trap Mar Fan's leg on his shoulders. When Mar Fan tried to stand and bail, Steele pulled the leg through, slipped to fifty-fifty, inverted underneath, and ripped a backside fifty-fifty heel hook for the first round finish. The commentators could not even track what he was doing in real time, which tells you how deep his entanglement game runs.

His signature tools: - Modern leg entanglements (Outside Funk to fifty-fifty heel hook, Round 1 vs Dom Mar Fan). He turns bad positions into finishes. - Jab-to-shot wrestling entry (vs Rongzhu). He uses the jab to disguise a level change and dive on legs. - Jab-to-right hand adaptation (vs Rongzhu). He showed he can switch off the shot and land the right when an opponent sits on the uppercut counter.

Technically he is a bottom and scramble grappler first. The Mar Fan fight proved his ceiling is finishing anyone who engages him on the mat. The problem is getting it there against someone who does not want to play that game.

Kody Steele's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Predictable jab-to-shot entry. Against Rongzhu in February 2025, Steele telegraphed the level change so badly that Rongzhu was timing right uppercuts as Steele ducked in. Gugnon is a sharp, calm striker who loves to counter, exactly the profile that punished Steele last time.
• Leaky striking defense in open exchanges. Rongzhu hit him "at will" and slipped most of Steele's punches across the fight. His recent striking defense percentage sits at a rough 0.295, and he absorbs nearly 4 head strikes per minute. If he cannot get the fight down, he eats offense.
• Abandons body work and high-level tools against tough opponents. The insight from the Rongzhu fight flagged that Steele only shows his best stuff when he already feels superior. Against live competition he shrinks his toolkit, which makes him easier to read.

Warning: Steele lost his most recent decision to Rongzhu and holds a recent win percentage of just 0.33. His last three UFC-level results are shaky outside the Mar Fan finish.

Noah Gugnon's Breakdown

Gugnon is a 100 percent finisher riding a six-fight win streak into the UFC. His debut against Milos Janicic in August 2026 was a clinic in setup. He read Janicic's low-hands boxing, chopped the lead leg with a heavy calf kick early, attacked the other leg when Janicic switched stance, and watched him crumble. Instead of letting him recover, Gugnon followed to the floor, climbed to back control with both hooks, and finished a rear-naked choke at 1:21 of Round 1.

His signature tools: - Debilitating low leg kicks (Round 1 vs Janicic). He lands 2.96 leg kicks per minute and absorbs zero. That is a weapon, not a jab-filler. - Kick-to-grappling transitions (vs Janicic). He hurts with kicks, then immediately chases the back when the opponent drops. - Rear-naked choke from back control (vs Janicic, his 4th career sub). Smooth hooks-in back take and a clean figure-four finish.

He fights with a calm demeanor in chaos, which showed up silencing a hostile Belgrade crowd. The leg kick game is the key here: it damages without committing to the exchanges where Steele wants to shoot.

Noah Gugnon's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Clinch defense under pressure. His only finish loss came from clinch elbows (Mark Ewen, Bellator 299). If Steele can chain into a clinch along the cage, that is Gugnon's thinnest ice.
• Unproven in long fights. Everything recent ends in Round 1. We have not seen his cardio or how he reacts when a grappler smothers him for 15 minutes.
• Head strikes absorbed. He takes 3.7 head strikes per minute and his offense is low-volume to the head. A busy pressure striker can out-touch him, though Steele is not that fighter.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler-heavy-but-predictable versus striker-who-finishes-grapplers.

Steele's path is clear: get it to the mat and he can finish anyone, as Mar Fan learned. But his only entry is the telegraphed jab-to-shot that Rongzhu read all day. Gugnon is a counter-minded striker exactly like the archetype that gives Steele fits. If Gugnon times the level change the way Rongzhu did with uppercuts, Steele's whole plan stalls.

Gugnon's leg kicks are the swing factor. Steele absorbs 0.74 leg kicks per minute and does almost nothing to check them. Gugnon chopping the lead leg early, the same sequence that wrecked Janicic, erodes Steele's shot power and base. A grappler who cannot plant cannot shoot.

Steele's real opening is the clinch and the scramble. Gugnon got stopped by clinch elbows before, and if Steele can muscle him to the fence and drag him down, his entanglement game is lethal. The question is whether he can close that distance without eating the counter first.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Gugnon likely wins the opening exchanges with leg kicks and counters, the same rhythm he found instantly against Janicic. Steele will look to jab-and-shoot, and that is the most dangerous moment for him given how Rongzhu timed it.
• Mid-fight: If Steele survives the kicks and gets a body-lock or a scramble, the fight flips hard. His fifty-fifty and funk game can finish in seconds. But if the leg damage stacks up, his takedown entries get slower and more readable.
• Later rounds: Both are unproven deep, but Steele has shown he fades into pure striking where he gets picked apart. Gugnon's cardio is a question mark, yet nothing suggests he will be the one forced to grind.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gugnon's leg kicks vs Steele's base. The Janicic sequence is the blueprint. Steele checks almost nothing and absorbs 0.74 per minute.
• Steele's telegraphed shot vs Gugnon's counters. Rongzhu already showed how to time the jab-to-shot with uppercuts. Gugnon is a calm counter finisher.
• Steele's only road is the clinch and mat. Gugnon's lone finish loss came from clinch elbows, so Steele must get tight to win.
• Steele's recent form is poor. Recent win percentage of 0.33 and a loss to a defensively sound striker in his last decision.
• Gugnon finishes everyone. 100 percent finish rate, six straight wins, both striking and submission threats.

Understanding the Prediction

• odds was the biggest mover, increasing the score by 5.0 toward Gugnon despite Steele being the betting favorite, a classic value flag.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, reach, and the output/impact differentials each nudged the score up by 1.0 for Gugnon.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage and recent_striking_impact_differential added another 1.0 each in Gugnon's favor.
• Pulling the other way: significant_striking_impact_differential (-3.0), recent_significant_striking_impact_differential (-2.0), recent_win_perc (-2.0), and striking_defense_percentage (-2.0) all shaved points, reflecting the thin, short sample on both men.
• The net still lands on Gugnon at a confidence score of 3.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has limited track record here and it is a caution worth flagging. The one prior Steele prediction was wrong: the model picked Dom Mar Fan at 0.77 and Steele submitted him in Round 1. That is a direct miss on Steele's finishing ability, so do not sleep on his mat game. There is no prediction history on Gugnon at all, which widens the uncertainty given he has only one UFC fight.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Noah Gugnon, and the logic holds. Gugnon's leg kicks attack a base Steele never protects, his counters mirror the uppercuts Rongzhu used to shut down Steele's only entry, and he finishes fights from everywhere. Steele is dangerous the moment this hits the mat, and the model has already been burned once underrating his submissions, so a clinch drag or scramble can flip it fast. But the cleaner path belongs to Gugnon. Take Gugnon to win.