Analysis: Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Adrian Yanez to Win

Score: 14
Odds:
Cody Garbrandt: +320
Adrian Yanez: -450

Cody Garbrandt's Breakdown

The former champ still carries the fastest hands in the division, but the version of "No Love" showing up in 2026 is a shadow of the man who starched Dominick Cruz in 2016. His signature weapons remain intact on paper.

Signature techniques: - Pull counter right hand. This is his money punch. Against Trevin Jones in Round 2, he pulled his head back from Jones' straight left and returned a clean right hand, then followed with an uppercut-hook combo. He hunts this counter against anyone who leads. - Lead hook to overhand right. His quick left hook followed by the overhand right dropped Assuncao in Round 2 at UFC 250 and finished Kelleher with a compact counter right in Round 1 in 2023. When the timing is there, it ends nights. - Level-change wrestling off strikes. Against Jones in Round 3, he changed levels after a boxing exchange and hit a double leg. He stuffed all but one of Barcelos' takedowns in Round 1 too. The wrestling is a real, if underused, tool.

Technical evolution: The Kelleher win in 2023 showed a more patient, defensively responsible Garbrandt. But that discipline has not held. The Barcelos loss and the ugly Xiao Long win (saved by groin foul disqualification) suggest a fighter in clear decline at 33 with vertigo and concussion history.

Cody Garbrandt's Technical Vulnerabilities

• One-round cardio. This is the killer. Against Barcelos in June 2025, he won Round 1 with crisp boxing, then faded badly. By Round 2 Barcelos cracked him with a right hand at the horn. By Round 3 a leg kick dumped him and Barcelos took his back. He simply cannot sustain output past five minutes.
• Chin held high on the retreat. When hurt, he backs straight up with his chin exposed rather than circling or clinching. Kara-France exploited this exactly in 2021, following him in a straight line and dropping him with a right hand. Dillashaw did the same in both title losses. He has been KO'd by Dillashaw (twice), Munhoz, and Kara-France.
• Leg kick and calf kick defense. Munhoz chopped his lead leg in 2019 before the finish. Xiao Long shredded him with step-up inside low kicks in 2026. He rarely checks kicks, and his bouncing stance leaves that lead leg exposed.

When the gameplan fails: He gets tentative and gun-shy, or he abandons defense to brawl. Neither works. Against Barcelos he went passive and got picked apart. Against Munhoz and Dillashaw he loaded up wildly and got countered cold.

Adrian Yanez's Breakdown

Yanez is the sharper, higher-volume boxer here, and the numbers back it. He lands 6.04 strikes per minute to Garbrandt's 3.10, with a positive striking output differential of +17.2 against Garbrandt's -22.0.

Signature techniques: - Jab to rear straight. Against Gustavo Lopez in 2021, he used a soft flicking jab to halt forward momentum, then landed the rear hand straight repeatedly before the third-round finish. This is his bread and butter. - Parry to counter left hook. He parried Tony Kelley's kicks in 2022 and countered with hooks, then broke him down with body work for the TKO. His counter game punishes fighters who lead carelessly. - Systematic body work. He wore down Randy Costa in Round 2 in 2021 with accumulating body shots after weathering the early storm. Against Ricky Simon in March 2026 he opened a cut and nearly finished with a right hand in the final ten seconds.

Technical evolution: Yanez has added better defensive reads and mid-fight adjustments, like the weaving left hook he integrated against Marcos. But he has lost three of his last four, and the layoff and ring rust are real factors.

Adrian Yanez's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Leg kicks and pressure. Jonathan Martinez KO'd him in Round 2 in 2023 by out-volumed leg work and pressure. He remains hittable in exchanges, absorbing 3.25 head strikes per minute.
• Dirty boxing and clinch control. Rob Font used a collar tie and uppercuts to KO him in Round 1 in 2023. Fighters who grab the head and hit inside disrupt his rhythm.
• Passivity in dominant spots. Against Marcos he stood static in punching range with a fatigued opponent trapped on the cage and refused to fire, costing him the decision.

When the gameplan fails: He can grow hesitant, as against Marcos, or get caught when he trades in the pocket, as against Font and Martinez. But his chin has generally held against boxers who do not carry Font-Martinez level pressure.

Style Matchup Dynamics

The central question is whether Garbrandt can land his pull counter right before Yanez's volume and cardio take over.

Garbrandt's paths: His fastest weapon, the counter right, is exactly the kind of shot that dropped Assuncao and finished Kelleher. If Yanez leads carelessly early, Garbrandt can end it in one exchange. His power is the great equalizer, and Yanez has been finished before.

Yanez's paths: Yanez does not need to be reckless. He can jab, mix in leg kicks to Garbrandt's exposed lead leg (the Munhoz and Xiao Long blueprint), and drag Garbrandt into the deep water. Once Round 2 hits, Garbrandt's cardio collapses. Barcelos and Font both showed that a durable, high-volume pressure fighter beats Garbrandt over three rounds. Yanez is exactly that archetype.

The Martinez fight is a warning for Yanez: a busy pressure striker with leg kicks can crack him. But Garbrandt is not that fighter anymore. He is a one-round sprinter with a fragile chin.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Round 1: The danger zone for Yanez. Garbrandt is at his most explosive early. Expect him to hunt the counter right and maybe a level change. Yanez should box behind the jab and stay off the fence.
• Round 2: The turn. This is where Garbrandt has faded in every recent loss. Yanez's body work and volume start to compound, exactly like Barcelos did in Atlanta.
• Round 3: If it gets here, Yanez should be teeing off on a gassed opponent, much like his late surge against Simon.

Analysis and Key Points

• Garbrandt's chin is a liability. Four KO losses (Dillashaw x2, Munhoz, Kara-France). Recently KO'd territory, and the same could happen if he loads up and gets countered.
• One-round cardio is fatal here. Barcelos and Font both drowned him past Round 1. Yanez's 6.04 strikes per minute pace is built to exploit that.
• Lead-leg exposure. Munhoz and Xiao Long both damaged that leg. Yanez lands 0.80 leg kicks per minute and can copy the plan.
• Yanez's own risks are real but mismatched. Font and Martinez beat Yanez with pressure and leg kicks. Garbrandt lacks the cardio to apply that for three rounds.
• Downward trends for both. Both have lost three of their last four or similar, but Yanez's losses came to sharper, more durable opposition, and he still nearly beat Simon.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds decreased the score by 17, the single biggest factor, reflecting Yanez as a heavy -450 favorite.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 4, crediting Garbrandt's wrestling volume as a possible escape route.
• recent_win_perc added 3 in Garbrandt's favor.
• Striking impact and significant striking differentials each nudged the score up by 1, small nods to Garbrandt's power.
• Reach shaved 1 off, since Yanez holds a 70 to 65 inch reach edge.
• average_striking_output_differential and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each dropped 1, reflecting Yanez's massive volume advantage.

The net result is a low confidence score of 14, meaning the model leans Yanez but not overwhelmingly, largely because Garbrandt's power and takedown attempts keep him live.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been strong on both men. It correctly called all five of Garbrandt's recent tracked fights, including his losses to Figueiredo and Barcelos and his win over Xiao Long. On Yanez, the model went 5-1, with its only miss being the Rob Font upset, where it picked Yanez at 0.34 and Font won by KO. That one miss is the caution flag here: Yanez can be caught by a heavy-handed pressure fighter. But Garbrandt is not Font, and the model's overall read on both fighters has been reliable.

Conclusion

Garbrandt's power gives him a puncher's chance in Round 1, and if he lands that pull counter right early, all bets are off. But everything past the first five minutes points to Yanez. The volume, the cardio gap, the leg-kick blueprint, and Garbrandt's fragile chin all line up. WolfTicketsAI takes Adrian Yanez, and the smart read is Yanez by later-round TKO or clear decision once the former champ empties his tank.