UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Umar Nurmagomedov to Win

Score: 31
Odds:
Umar Nurmagomedov: -550
Song Yadong: +400

Umar Nurmagomedov's Breakdown

Umar is a Dagestani grappling machine with striking flair that separates him from the rest of the clan. He is 20-1, coming off back-to-back decision wins over Mario Bautista (UFC 321) and Deiveson Figueiredo (UFC 324). His game is built on chain wrestling, back takes, and a diverse kicking arsenal that keeps opponents honest before he changes levels.

His three signature weapons:

• Kick-to-takedown chain. Against Cory Sandhagen in 2024, Umar threw a kick, watched Sandhagen step back, then dove on the legs as Sandhagen stepped back in. That fundamental "retreat forces advance" principle defined the fight and let him outvolume a rangy striker. Expect the same trap against Song, who circles and resets after bursts.
• Back control to rear-naked choke. He is "the rear naked choke guy." Against Bautista he racked up 11-of-14 takedowns with body triangles locked in. Against Morozov and Kelleher he found the back and squeezed. If he gets Song down, the back is where he lives.
• Question-mark kick and teep game. Against Figueiredo he opened with hard outside leg kicks and teeps to the body to control distance and drive the Brazilian to the fence. His kicks score points and set up the level change.

His technical evolution is real. Against Sandhagen and Merab he showed a functional orthodox left hand, jab work, and combinations, breaking from the old right-hand-heavy southpaw habit. He is more than a wrestler now.

Umar Nurmagomedov's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Head ducking on level changes. This is the big one against a power puncher. Against Bautista in Round 2, Umar ducked his head shooting and ate a flying knee that dropped him. He admitted Khabib constantly warns him about it. Song Yadong is one of the hardest-hitting bantamweights alive and specializes in catching kicks and level changes with counters. This is the exact technical mismatch that could hurt Umar.
• Cardio under relentless pressure. Against Merab in the title fight, Umar collapsed in Round 4. His output dropped, and he was in survival mode by Round 5. Song is not the pace machine Merab is, so this matters less here, but it is a known crack.
• Submission exposure when shooting. Bautista locked a deep toe hold/heel hook in Round 1. Song has the Team Alpha Male guillotine and just choked out Figueiredo off a takedown attempt in May 2026. Umar diving in carelessly could find trouble.

Song Yadong's Breakdown

Song is 23-9-1, an explosive Sanda-based power puncher trained at Team Alpha Male. He is coming off a submission win over Figueiredo (May 2026) but lost a close decision to Sean O'Malley (UFC 324) before that. His best win recently was over Henry Cejudo in February 2025.

His signature tools:

• Kick catch to counter punch. Against Cejudo, when Henry threw a right body kick, Song caught it and hammered him with a right hook. This is his most dangerous weapon against a kicker like Umar. Every kick Umar throws carries counter risk.
• Counter left hook. Against Ricky Simon he baited level changes with body feints, then popped up with the left hook, dropping Simon twice before the Round 5 TKO. He troubles opponents with it from both stances.
• Right straight and power combinations. He KO'd Marlon Moraes with an overhand-into-uppercut sequence in 2022. Against Figueiredo he landed the right straight down the middle almost without stepping.

His guillotine is legit, as Figueiredo learned by shooting a head-outside single into it.

Technical evolution has stalled. Analysts note at 28 he has not meaningfully changed, and his output remains 2-3 strike bursts without follow-up.

Song Yadong's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Wrestling and takedown defense. This is the story of this fight. Cody Stamann outwrestled him to a draw in 2019. Kyler Phillips took him down at key moments to win. His takedown defense sits at 35%. Umar attempts nearly 9 takedowns per fight. Song has never faced Dagestani chain wrestling of this level.
• Fails to sustain pressure. He lands then lets opponents reset. Against O'Malley in Round 3 he could not close distance and got picked apart. Umar's constant grappling threat will suppress his bursts the way it did Sandhagen's.
• Cardio in later rounds. A recurring problem noted across multiple fights. If Umar drags him into deep water and piles on control time, Song fades.

Style Matchup Dynamics

The central question is whether Song's counters land before Umar's takedowns arrive. Umar's kick-to-takedown chain against Sandhagen is the blueprint here, but Song is a far more dangerous counter puncher than Sandhagen. Song's kick catch off Cejudo and his counter left hook off Simon are the tools that could ruin Umar's night, especially given Umar's habit of ducking his head into knees and uppercuts on entries.

But the wrestling gap is enormous. Song was taken down and controlled by Stamann and Phillips, journeyman-to-solid wrestlers. Umar is the second-best grappler in the division behind Merab. If this fight resembles Umar's Bautista performance, Song eats 10-plus minutes of control and never gets to unload his 2-3 strike bursts.

The Merab fight is the cautionary tale for Song fans: Merab, another wrestler who pressures Song's weakness, is exactly the archetype Song struggles with.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Song is most dangerous here. His power and counters are fresh. Umar will feel him out with kicks and teeps, risking the kick catch. Watch for Umar to test level changes cautiously to avoid the flying knee he ate against Bautista.
• Mid-fight: Umar's chain wrestling should take over. As he did against Sandhagen and Bautista, expect him to time takedowns off Song's kick returns and start accumulating back control and body triangles.
• Late rounds: Song's cardio historically dips. If Umar has controlled Round 1-2, Song's bursts get more desperate and telegraphed, exactly what happened against O'Malley in Round 3. Umar's own cardio is a question only if Song can force a Merab-style pace, which he rarely does.

Analysis and Key Points

• Umar's kick-to-takedown chain vs Song's reset habit: The Sandhagen fight shows Umar can suppress a rangy striker's output with wrestling threat. Song resets rather than chaining offense, playing into this.
• Song's kick catch is the live danger: Cejudo threw a kick and got clubbed. Umar kicks a lot. This is Song's clearest path.
• Umar's head-ducking is the exploit: Bautista's flying knee dropped him. Song's counter left hook and uppercuts off level changes are tailor-made for this flaw.
• Wrestling gap decides it: Stamann and Phillips outwrestled Song. Umar is a different universe of grappling.
• Guillotine warning: Figueiredo shot into Song's choke in May. Umar must shoot clean, head-outside singles as he always does.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Umar but with a surprisingly low score of 31, meaning this is closer than the odds suggest:

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 22 points and reflecting Umar's heavy -550 favorite status.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 4 points, favoring Umar's cleaner damage numbers.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 4 points, capturing Umar's near-9 attempts per fight against Song's leaky 35% defense.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_win_perc each added 2, both leaning Umar.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and striking_defense_percentage each nudged up 1.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage shaved off 1, the lone feature tipping toward Song, reflecting his recent defensive striking numbers.

The low overall score signals the model respects Song's power and counter threat even while backing Umar.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect record predicting Umar, going 7-for-7 including correct calls on his Bautista and Figueiredo wins at 0.81 and 0.82. That is a strong vote of confidence.

On Song, the model is mostly right but has been burned once. It picked Ricky Simon over Song in 2023 at 0.32 and Song KO'd Simon in Round 5. That miss is a caution: the model has undervalued Song's finishing power before. It also correctly nailed his recent Figueiredo and Cejudo wins.

Conclusion

Umar Nurmagomedov is the pick. The wrestling gap is too wide, and his kick-to-takedown chain neutralizes exactly what makes Song dangerous. Song's counter left hook and kick catch give him a puncher's chance, and Umar's head-ducking habit keeps this from being a formality. But over 15 minutes, expect Umar to smother Song with chain wrestling and back control the way he did Bautista, taking a clear decision. WolfTicketsAI backs Umar Nurmagomedov.

Analysis: Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yan Xiaonan to Win

Score: 2
Odds:
Yan Xiaonan: -145
Denise Gomes: +120

Yan Xiaonan's Breakdown

Yan Xiaonan is a Sanda-based volume striker who lives and dies by distance management. For years she has picked apart opponents with a diet of jabs, side kicks, and low kicks while denying the takedown just enough to keep the fight where she wants it. Against Mackenzie Dern in 2022, she gave a clinic in this exact style. When Dern jabbed forward, swung her head wide, and charged head-down at the hips, Yan simply stepped off the line and sent Dern face-first into the fence. She outstruck a world-class grappler roughly 3-to-1 by refusing to be there when the shot arrived.

Her signature tools are worth spelling out:

• The side kick as a range governor. Against Dern and again versus Kowalkiewicz, Yan threw the side kick not just in round one but throughout, keeping aggressive pressure fighters from setting their feet. This is the weapon that neutralizes forward-marching brawlers.
• The 1-2 into lateral exit. Her straight boxing built her lead against Dern and Gadelha. She fires clean, then angles rather than backing straight up.
• Counter-striking against rushers. The Jessica Andrade knockout in 2023 was her finest hour. Andrade bullrushes everyone, and Yan stayed composed, timed the entries, and cracked her clean. That is the single most relevant tape for this matchup, because Gomes also wants to march forward and blitz.

Her recent evolution has been about composure over chaos. The Andrade finish and the Ricci decision in late 2024 showed a fighter who no longer panics when pressured, choosing to counter rather than flee.

Yan Xiaonan's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chain wrestling and cage grinding. Carla Esparza took her down and TKO'd her in 2021. Zhang Weili mixed strikes and takedowns to a clean decision in 2024. Both times, the pattern was the same: get Yan to the mat, keep her there, and drain her striking off the scorecards. Gomes averages nearly five takedown attempts per fight and just earned her BJJ black belt, so this door is open.
• Muay Thai length and clinch pressure. Marina Rodriguez beat her by managing distance and forcing close-range exchanges, splitting the decision in 2022. When someone gets into Yan's mid-range and clinches, her volume dries up.
• Recent form and durability question. Yan has lost two of her last three, including the Jandiroba decision in April 2025. She has also been finished before (Esparza TKO). Heuristic warning applies here: she has tasted a stoppage loss, and Gomes carries genuine one-shot power.

Denise Gomes's Breakdown

Gomes is a 25-year-old power puncher who has quietly turned into a more complete fighter. She rides a four-fight win streak and has never been more dangerous. Her calling cards:

• The counter right hand over the low kick. She iced Elise Reed in 2025 with a textbook version, timing the right straight the instant Reed committed to a leg kick. Yan throws roughly 1.3 leg kicks a minute, so this is a live threat every time Yan digs to the calf.
• Fence pressure into power shots. Against Kowalkiewicz in 2024, she walked Karolina to the cage, checked her hands, then landed a double-pump flying knee before finishing with strikes. Her lead-hand-slap-to-straight-right is a clean, repeatable entry.
• Blitzing right-to-left-hook combinations. She dropped Yazmin Jauregui with a counter right off her inside low kick, then finished. She has thudding power in short bursts.

Her recent evolution is the real story. The Pennington fight in November 2025 showed her pressing forward with in-and-out movement, avoiding counters by fading after each exchange, and then landing three takedowns and taking the back in round three. That grappling wrinkle, plus her new GAEA Project camp, means she is no longer a one-note brawler.

Denise Gomes's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Leg kick defense. This is the big one. Against Kowalkiewicz she was visibly rattled by low kicks, spinning in her stance and bending at the waist. Yan's most consistent weapon is exactly that low kick. If Yan attacks the legs early, she can disrupt Gomes's base and rhythm.
• Straight-line retreat with the chin up. In the Bruna Brasil fight she won because Brasil retreated in a straight line, but Gomes has shown the same habit when pressured. Yan's volume and lateral footwork punish fighters who move straight back.
• Defensive gaps on combination exits. Gomes pulls straight back with her chin exposed after her bursts. Against a high-output counter puncher like Yan, those exits are counter windows, similar to how Yan repeatedly caught Andrade resetting.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic volume-technician versus power-pressure puncher clash, and the tape gives clear reads both ways.

What Yan can exploit: Gomes's leg kick vulnerability lines up perfectly with Yan's bread and butter. The Kowalkiewicz fight showed Gomes losing composure to low kicks, and Yan lands over one a minute. Yan's side kick can also keep Gomes from setting her feet to blitz, the same way it froze Dern and Kowalkiewicz. And Yan's counter timing on rushers, proven against Andrade, is the exact answer to Gomes's blitzing entries.

What Gomes can exploit: Yan's takedown defense has cracked against real wrestling, and Gomes just posted a three-takedown, back-take performance against Pennington. If Gomes marries her power striking to level changes, she can drag Yan into the grappling hell that Esparza and Weili used. Her counter right over the low kick is also a knockout-level punish if Yan gets careless digging to the legs.

The closest historical parallel is Andrade versus Yan. Andrade was the shorter, heavier-handed pressure fighter who got picked apart and stopped when she rushed without setups. Gomes is more refined than Andrade was, but the same counter-striking blueprint applies.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Yan to establish the side kick and low kick, testing whether Gomes can handle the leg attacks. This is Gomes's most dangerous window too, since her counter right is sharpest when fresh. The first five minutes carry real knockout risk for Yan.
• Mid-fight adjustments: If Yan survives the early power, her volume tends to compound. She built leads on Dern and Gadelha exactly this way. Gomes's likely counter is to shift to wrestling, as she did late against Pennington, forcing Yan to defend takedowns she has historically struggled with.
• Late rounds: Yan's cardio and pace have carried her deep for years, going five hard rounds with both Dern and Weili. Gomes's output has been strong but she has fewer deep-water miles at this level. If it stays standing, the later rounds favor Yan's accumulation.

Analysis and Key Points

• Yan's low kicks vs Gomes's worst read. Gomes wobbled against Kowalkiewicz's leg kicks. Yan lives on that weapon. This is the cleanest technical mismatch in the fight.
• The Andrade blueprint. Yan already solved a shorter, powerful rusher by countering clean. Gomes fights a similar range.
• Gomes's power is real and Yan has been stopped. The Esparza TKO plus Gomes's finishes over Reed, Jauregui, and Brasil mean the early rounds are live.
• Wrestling is the swing factor. Esparza and Weili beat Yan by grappling. Gomes flashed exactly that against Pennington. If she commits to takedowns, this gets close fast.
• Recent form cuts against Yan. She has dropped two of her last three, while Gomes is 4-0 in her last four.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Yan by a slim score of 2, and the SHAP data shows why it stayed close.

• Odds were the single biggest factor, pushing the score up by 7 and reflecting Yan's favorite status at -145.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and the various striking impact and output differentials each nudged the score up by a point, favoring Yan's proven striking résumé.
• striking_defense_percentage added to Yan's side as well.
• On the other side, recent_win_perc pulled the score down by 2, a direct nod to Gomes's perfect recent run versus Yan's spotty form.
• trueskill and win_streak_diff each shaved off a point, again crediting Gomes's momentum.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight cost Yan a point, correctly flagging Gomes's takedown volume as a real threat.

The picture is a fighter favored on odds and long-term striking quality, but with recent form, momentum, and wrestling all dragging the number back toward a coin flip.

Past Model Performance

The model has a strong read on Yan, going correct in five of six logged predictions, including nailing her wins over Ricci and Dern and her losses to Weili and Jandiroba. The one miss was the Andrade fight, where it picked Andrade and Yan starched her, a useful reminder that Yan's counter power against rushers can produce surprises.

On Gomes, the model is four correct out of six, but both misses matter here. It wrongly picked against her twice, once versus Jauregui (she won by KO) and once versus Moura (she won by split decision). In other words, the model has repeatedly underrated Gomes, which is a genuine caution flag on a prediction this thin.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Yan Xiaonan, and the technical case is sound. Her low kicks target Gomes's clearest weakness, her side kick disrupts the blitz, and she already proved against Andrade that she can counter a shorter power puncher into a highlight-reel loss. The risks are real: Gomes hits hard, Yan has been stopped and out-wrestled before, and the model has twice underrated Gomes. But if this stays on the feet, Yan's volume and distance control should carry the scorecards. Take Yan Xiaonan, and watch the low kicks set the tone early.

Analysis: Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kai Asakura to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Aoriqileng: +350
Kai Asakura: -450

Aoriqileng's Breakdown

The Mongolian Murderer is a Sanda-trained brawler who lives and dies by his right hand. When he's on, he's a genuine one-shot finisher. Look no further than his October 2025 return against Cody Gibson in Vancouver. Gibson threw a naked inside leg kick, and Aoriqileng read it instantly, firing a straight right down the pipe that starched him in 21 seconds. That was textbook counter-punching against a fighter who leads carelessly.

His signature weapons:

• Counter right hand off opponent's low kicks or lead. The Gibson KO is the blueprint. He also badly hurt Johnny Munoz repeatedly in rounds 2 and 3 (October 2023) with the right cross over the jab and the right uppercut when Munoz shot for the hips.
• Body hooks into ground and pound. Against Cameron Else (April 2022), he sat Else down with vicious body hooks, took the back, and finished with strikes. That body attack is underrated in his arsenal.
• Durable, resilient pressure. Against Jeff Molina (UFC 261), he got dropped and immediately stood up to drop Molina right back. His chin and heart kept him in wars for years.

The technical evolution is real but shallow. He told his team he tried a "new tactic" for Gibson, showing more patience and counter discipline than his usual walk-forward brawling. But that patience is situational. When the counter isn't there, he reverts to planted, heavy-stance pressure that leaves him hittable.

Aoriqileng's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin has cracked against precise counter-strikers. Aiemann Zahabi caught his telegraphed calf kick at UFC 289 (June 2023), missed an overhand right, then landed a looping left hook on the raised chin for a 64-second KO. Most recently Cody Haddon finished him with a body knee in round 2 (May 2026). That is two KO losses in his last handful of fights. Warning: he was just KO'd, and it can happen again against a sharp puncher like Asakura.
• Fence wrestling and control break him down. Haddon backed him to the cage, level changed, and dumped him repeatedly, then trapped him in a Dagestani handcuff. Raul Rosas Jr. (September 2024) read his jab-cross-level change pattern within 90 seconds, took his back, and finished with a body-triangle RNC. His sprawl only works in open space.
• Throwing kicks leaves him exposed. Molina caught him on the jaw while he threw a kick. Zahabi caught the calf kick outright. This is a recurring, fight-ending flaw.

Kai Asakura's Breakdown

Asakura is the explosive, highlight-reel striker who dropped down from bantamweight. His hands are a level above most of the division, and when he catches you clean, you're done. Against Cameron Smotherman (May 2026) he threw a right uppercut from range, weaved, shifted, and chained a left and right hook to finish in round 1.

His signature weapons:

• Right hand power shots, especially right hooks. This is his money punch. He hurts people with precision timing rather than volume.
• Punches off weaves and shifting combinations. He uses head movement to create angles, then chains power shots through stance shifts. The Smotherman finish shows this clearly.
• Counter right and flying knee entries. Against Pantoja (UFC 310) he opened with a flying knee to the chest and showed a slick right hand into a stepping left knee to the liver. His counter game punishes overaggression.

His evolution has added the flying knee and the right-into-knee combination, but the core is still a timing-based counter striker who wants you to lead so he can crack you.

Kai Asakura's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Grappling defense is his fatal flaw. He's been submitted in both of his UFC losses. Pantoja used oblique kicks to kill his explosive base, then knee-wheel trips into back control and an RNC (December 2024). Tim Elliott (August 2025) took him down and finished with a mounted guillotine in round 2. Any wrestler who closes distance can drown him.
• Unorthodox movement scrambles his timing. Elliott's dancing, unpredictable footwork left Asakura unable to time his counter knees. His whole game depends on reading entries. Confuse the rhythm and his offense stalls.
• Loads up and gets caught mid-load against leg attacks. Pantoja teed off on his lead leg and thigh whenever Asakura prepared to launch, neutralizing the counters.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker-versus-striker matchup on paper, and that plays into Asakura's hands. The key question is whether Aoriqileng can turn it into a wrestling fight, because that's the only proven way to beat Kai.

• What Aoriqileng needs: takedowns and cage control. Asakura has been finished on the mat twice. But here's the problem. Aoriqileng is not that grappler. His own fence wrestling is a liability, not a weapon. He attempts around 2.3 takedowns per fight with mediocre 46 percent accuracy, and he's the one who gets controlled, as Rosas and Haddon showed. He doesn't have the wrestling to exploit Kai's one real weakness.
• What Asakura needs: make it a striking match and counter the leg-kick and right-hand entries. Aoriqileng throws telegraphed calf kicks and enters on predictable jab-cross patterns. Zahabi caught exactly that. Asakura is a sharper, quicker counter puncher than Zahabi, and he weaves into power shots. If Aoriqileng leads with a kick, Kai's right hook is waiting.
• Historical parallel: The Zahabi fight is the roadmap. A patient counter striker who catches Aoriqileng's kick and lands the follow-up. Asakura does this better than almost anyone at the weight.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Danger zone for both, but especially Aoriqileng. His two most recent KO losses both came from clean shots. Asakura is a fast starter who finished Smotherman and hurt Pantoja early. If Aoriqileng throws a lazy calf kick or overextends on the right hand, this ends quickly.
• Mid-fight: If Aoriqileng survives and pressures, he could test Asakura's cardio and grappling. But he lacks the wrestling entries to drag it there cleanly. Asakura's counters get sharper as he reads the pattern, just as Rosas and Molina read Aoriqileng's rhythm.
• Late rounds: Aoriqileng's durability and pressure are real, and Asakura has been submitted late twice when grapplers took over. But without a grappler's toolkit, Aoriqileng can't replicate what Pantoja and Elliott did.

Analysis and Key Points

• Aoriqileng's best path is wrestling, but he can't wrestle at that level. His fence defense collapsed against Haddon and Rosas, so imposing top control on Kai is unrealistic.
• Asakura's right hook meets Aoriqileng's exposed chin. Zahabi and Haddon just proved the chin cracks. Kai's timing is elite.
• Kai's kryptonite is grappling, and Aoriqileng isn't the man to exploit it. Both Asakura losses came by submission to wrestlers. This opponent doesn't fit that mold.
• KO warning is live. Aoriqileng was knocked out in May 2026 and by Zahabi in 2023. Same finish is very possible here.
• Downward trend. Aoriqileng has lost 3 of his last 5, with a 33 percent recent win rate. Asakura, despite the two elite-level losses, just scored a first-round KO.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Asakura at a modest score of 15, and the SHAP features tell you why it's confident but not blowout confident:

• Odds decreased the score by 18, the single biggest factor. The market has Kai at -450, and the model respects that heavy favoritism.
• recent_win_perc increased the score by 3, and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added another 3. These nudge things toward Aoriqileng's activity, but not enough to overcome the odds gap.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, and striking_impact_differential each added 1, small pushes reflecting Aoriqileng's power numbers.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage decreased the score by 1, a minor knock.

Net effect: the odds and market read heavily favor Asakura, and nothing in Aoriqileng's profile moved the needle enough to flip it.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on Aoriqileng, going correct on him in most spots, including calling the Rosas, Marcos, Zahabi, and Haddon results. The one clear miss was Gibson, where the model picked against Aoriqileng and ate a 21-second KO. That's the cautionary note: Aoriqileng's one-shot power can blow up a prediction in seconds.

On Asakura, the model is 1-1. It correctly called the Smotherman KO but missed on Tim Elliott, where Asakura got submitted. That miss underlines the exact risk here, though the risk against Aoriqileng (a poor grappler) is much lower than it was against a savvy wrestler like Elliott.

Conclusion

Aoriqileng always carries a puncher's chance, and his right hand can end anyone. But the only proven blueprint to beat Kai Asakura is high-level wrestling, and that's the one thing Aoriqileng doesn't have. Kai is the faster, sharper, more precise striker, and Aoriqileng's chin has cracked twice recently against exactly this kind of counter puncher. WolfTicketsAI sides with Kai Asakura, and the smart read is Asakura by knockout if Aoriqileng leads with a lazy kick or overcommits on the right hand.

Analysis: Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sumudaerji to Win

Score: 19
Odds:
Alex Perez: +180
Sumudaerji: -220

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Perez is a wrestle-heavy orthodox flyweight with a genuine finishing streak in his best moments, but the tape tells you he is a fighter fighting the clock now. At his peak he built his name on punishing calf kicks, the kind that chopped down Jussier Formiga at UFC 250 for a first-round TKO. He layered in boxing combinations there, mixing the right hand to the body with head shots before dropping Formiga with the leg attack. That calf-kick-to-boxing rhythm is his cleanest path to a win when it clicks.

His three signature tools:

• Calf kicks to set the table. Against Formiga he went 51% of significant strikes to the legs, wobbling the base before finishing. He needs this weapon early or he becomes one-dimensional.
• The left hook and pressure boxing. Look at the Charles Johnson rematch in January 2026. Perez controlled center octagon, cut off the cage, and dropped Johnson twice with the left hook for the first stoppage of Johnson's career. When Perez pressures orthodox fighters who trade, this is lethal.
• Guillotine and front-headlock scrambles. Against Sumudaerji in their May 2026 meeting, Perez threatened the guillotine off a late Round 1 takedown and jumped a seated kata gatame in Round 2. His scramble survival is underrated.

His technical evolution is real. The Matheus Nicolau win in April 2024 showed a feint-heavy, lateral-stepping striker who baited counter fighters and cracked them against the fence. That's a smarter Perez than the linear pressure guy who chased Sumudaerji around the cage. But the newer tape also shows decline, and that matters here.

Alex Perez's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Ring cutting against southpaws. This is the whole fight. In their first meeting, Perez chased Sumudaerji for a full round because he could not generate pressure stepping to his right. He kept falling forward into shifts, throwing right hands that never landed because Sumudaerji circled out to the left every time. His own corner could not fix it mid-fight.
• Durability at range against long strikers. Round 2 of that first fight, Sumudaerji dropped him immediately with a clean 3-2 combination. Perez ate that shot the second the door opened at distance. Sumudaerji's length is exactly the profile that has hurt him.
• Reactive shots when hurt lead to chokes. This is the killer pattern. Against Almabayev in November 2025, Perez got cracked by a spinning wheel kick and instantly shot a panic takedown into a standing guillotine, tapping in 22 seconds. Figueiredo and Pantoja both choked him after similar scramble errors. Sumudaerji locks tight D'arce chokes off exactly these bad shots.

When his primary gameplan fails, Perez presses harder and shoots worse takedowns. That is how he ends up in front headlocks and chokes. It is a repeatable, exploitable flaw.

Sumudaerji's Breakdown

Sumudaerji is the long southpaw striker built to give Perez fits. He is riding a four-fight win streak with a 100% recent win rate, and his recent form is the best of his UFC run. His whole game flows from length and range.

His three signature tools:

• Range striking from southpaw with the straight left. The Tibetan Eagle hits you from a step further than you can reach him. Against Jesus Aguilar at UFC 326 he landed a 62-31 significant strike edge using pure distance management, keeping Aguilar circling and picking him apart.
• The 3-2 combination to drop opponents. He put Perez down with it at the start of Round 2 in their first fight. Clean, fast, and fight-altering when it lands on a shorter man walking in.
• Opportunistic D'arce chokes and length grappling. When Perez shot poorly in the first fight, Sumudaerji immediately ran around the side and snapped on a vise-grip front headlock to attack the dart. For a man that long, the dart is a no-brainer, and Perez's bad takedowns feed right into it.

His evolution is the story. Early Sumudaerji was a mid-tier striker with no grappling, choked out by Elliott, Schnell, and Smolka. Recent Sumudaerji is different. Against Aguilar he landed four of five takedowns, threw Aguilar in the clinch repeatedly, and worked hammerfists from top. His anti-grappling and clinch strength have genuinely improved.

Sumudaerji's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cage pressure and turning his back. Against Charles Johnson in October 2024, Johnson faked a step-in, Sumudaerji swung wildly with his back near the fence, spun completely around, and got tagged and dropped. When he is trapped and forced to react, he panics and exposes himself.
• Chin high during offense. The Raposo split decision showed him raising his chin and dropping his hands mid-combination, eating counters. Perez's best moment historically is a left hook on a fighter who trades back.
• Takedown defense when backed to the fence. Raposo changed levels after forcing Sumudaerji to retreat, securing takedowns off his high center of gravity. Perez is the best wrestler in this ranking range. If he commits to clean, timed shots rather than panic dives, he can put Sumudaerji on his back.

When his range game fails, Sumudaerji can coast or get reckless, but his recent form suggests improved composure. Against Perez, his fallback is the D'arce, which plays perfectly into Perez's worst habit.

Previous Fight Breakdown

They met on May 30, 2026, and it ended a no contest via groin kick in Round 2. But the tape was swinging Sumudaerji's way. Round 1, Perez chased him around the cage unable to cut angles right, and Sumudaerji closed the round with a takedown while surviving a guillotine. Round 2, Sumudaerji immediately dropped Perez with a 3-2. Perez recovered, landed a nice inside slip to the body, and jumped a seated kata gatame, but Sumudaerji worked out. Momentum was clearly shifting to the taller man before the illegal kick ended it. This was not a fluke stoppage on a fight Perez was winning. He was behind.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a nightmare matchup for Perez on paper and on tape.

• Sumudaerji's straight left and 3-2 exploit Perez's range durability. Perez gets dropped at distance by long fighters. Sumudaerji already did it once. His southpaw exit to the left neutralizes Perez's right hand entirely, because Perez cannot step right to cut him off.
• Perez's exploit is the left hook and clean wrestling. If Perez can trap Sumudaerji on the fence, get him swinging wildly like Johnson did, and land the left hook, he has a puncher's path. His wrestling is the real X-factor. Sumudaerji's takedown defense against fence pressure is his weakest area, and Perez is a legit All-American.
• The historical lesson cuts both ways. Johnson beat Sumudaerji with feints and cage pressure. Perez has that in his toolkit from the Nicolau fight. But Perez also keeps feeding chokes with panic shots, and Sumudaerji's D'arce off bad takedowns is a live finish. The Elliott and Schnell fights show Sumudaerji can be submitted, but Perez is not a submission-hunter from top, he is a scrambler who gets caught.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Sumudaerji's range dictates. Expect him to circle left, land the straight left, and threaten the 3-2 as Perez marches forward. If Perez chases linearly like last time, he eats clean shots and possibly hits the mat again.
• Mid-fight: The adjustment window for Perez is cage-cutting and level changes. If he pins Sumudaerji to the fence and mixes real takedown entries, he can steal rounds on top. But every panic shot risks the D'arce. This is the knife's edge.
• Late rounds: Sumudaerji's recent cardio and composure have improved, and Perez at 34 fighting on the back foot burns energy chasing. Perez's takedown defense sits at 33% recently, a real concern given Sumudaerji added offensive wrestling.

Analysis and Key Points

• Perez was losing the first fight before the no contest. Dropped in Round 2, out-positioned in Round 1. Nothing suggests the sequel flips.
• Warning: Perez was recently KO'd by Taira and dropped by both Almabayev and Sumudaerji. The same clean-shot-at-range knockdown is a live threat again.
• Downward trend confirmed. Perez has lost 3 of his last 5, with the lone bright spot being the Johnson stoppage. Recent win percentage sits at 33%.
• The southpaw ring-cutting mismatch is decisive. Perez cannot generate pressure to his right, and Sumudaerji circles left all night. This is heuristic 5 in its purest form.
• Perez's choke vulnerability meets Sumudaerji's D'arce. Heuristic 6 applies directly. Bad shot, tight dart, tap.
• Perez's only real path is fence-pinning left hooks and clean wrestling, punishing Sumudaerji's chin-high habit and weaker fence takedown defense.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Sumudaerji but with a thin score of 19, and the SHAP data shows why it is not a blowout:

• Odds decreased the score by 9, the biggest single factor, reflecting Sumudaerji's -220 favoritism.
• Reach decreased the score by 4. Sumudaerji's 72-inch reach versus Perez's 65 is a massive seven-inch gap that the model weighs heavily in a range fight.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 3. Sumudaerji is 100% recent, Perez is 33%.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 3, the main factor pulling toward Perez. His wrestling volume is his one genuine threat.
• striking_impact_differential and average_striking_output_differential each nudged up 1 toward Perez, reflecting his career power numbers.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and striking_defense_percentage each shaved off 1 toward Sumudaerji.

The net picture: Sumudaerji's odds, reach, and recent form outweigh Perez's wrestling volume and career power.

Past Model Performance

Mixed history worth noting. The model correctly called Sumudaerji over Aguilar, Borjas, and Raposo in his recent streak, a strong three-for-three on his winning run. It also correctly flagged Sumudaerji's submission losses risk in spirit, though it wrongly favored him against Elliott and Schnell.

The caution flag: the model has whiffed on this exact pairing already. It picked Sumudaerji at 0.58 for their May 2026 fight and got a no contest. And it has repeatedly missed on Perez, wrongly picking against him in the Johnson stoppage and the Nicolau loss. Perez's finishing power makes him a live upset threat the model has underrated before. Take the pick with that in mind.

Conclusion

Sumudaerji is the correct side. The length, the southpaw angles, the improved wrestling, and the fact that he was already beating Perez before the groin kick all point one direction. Perez's only routes are a fence-pinned left hook or clean top wrestling, and both fight against a fighter who circles left and now grapples well enough to survive. WolfTicketsAI takes Sumudaerji, and the tape backs it.

Analysis: Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rei Tsuruya to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Rei Tsuruya: -750
Kevin Borjas: +525

Rei Tsuruya's Breakdown

Tsuruya is a 23-year-old grappling machine with judo roots and a submission game that plays at an elite level. At 11-1, his only blemish is a decision loss to Joshua Van, and the way he bounced back tells you plenty about where his game is headed.

His bread and butter is chaining strikes into grappling. Against Luis Gurule in May 2026, he showed the polished version of this. From a southpaw stance, he worked the up jab into the left straight down the pipe, dropped Gurule, then immediately snatched the front headlock with his knee tucked behind the elbow. No wild ground and pound, no burning energy. He ran to the back, took a single hook, and when Gurule scrambled up and posted a hand for balance, Tsuruya slid the rear naked choke home. That is textbook back-take mechanics.

His signature weapons: - Southpaw up jab to left straight. This is his primary striking entry, and it dropped Gurule twice in Round 1. It also sets up his level changes. - Front headlock to back take. Knee behind the elbow, run to the back without resistance, or spin to the seated kata gatame guillotine. This is where he finishes people. - Judo throws. Even in the losing effort against Van, he hit a gorgeous drop ippon seoi nage. His wrestling pedigree as a Junior Olympian gives him takedown variety Borjas simply cannot answer.

Statistically he backs this up. He lands 3.6 takedowns per fight on over 14 attempts, and his takedown defense sits at a perfect 1.000. Against Carlos Hernandez at UFC 303, he used a lead hook to draw strikes, then leveled to the undefended legs for takedowns. That striking-to-wrestling seam is his real skill.

Rei Tsuruya's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Body shot reaction. Against Gurule he dropped his hands and lifted his chin every time a right straight touched his body. For a southpaw, opponents step in with the right straight to the body all day, and Tsuruya's habit of touching the punch leaves his head exposed. Borjas throws to the liver, as he did ripping left hooks downstairs against Andre Lima in Round 2.
• Striking collapses against real strikers. The Van fight exposed him fully. He looked terrified to throw, and his hesitance made his wrestling entries predictable. When he cannot bully with wrestling, his confidence cracks.
• Predictable, flashy takedown entries under pressure. Against Van he kept diving at the leg too obviously and reached for flashy attempts instead of fundamental shots. When his A-game stalls, he presses harder into low-percentage setups rather than resetting.

When his primary gameplan fails, Tsuruya gets tentative on the feet and leans harder into telegraphed shots. That is the blueprint Van used to beat him.

Kevin Borjas's Breakdown

Borjas, "El Gallo Negro," is a 28-year-old Peruvian power puncher at 11-5 overall but just 2-4 in the UFC. He carries legit flyweight knockout thump, but his record and recent form tell a rougher story. He has lost four of his last five, and his most recent win over Andre Lima came off a short-notice weight miss.

What he does well: - Counter left hand. Against Imanol Rodriguez he timed a forward-pressing opponent and dropped him cold in Round 1 with a counter left. He can hurt anyone at 125 when he lands clean. - Right hand over the top. His straight right dropped Ronaldo Rodriguez twice for two knockdowns in a single round, and it staggered him early. This is his money punch. - Volume and movement, when disciplined. Against Lima he stayed on the bicycle, circled out, and fired three-to-five-punch bursts. His best version is elusive footwork plus combination boxing.

His stats show real power, with 0.59 knockdowns per fight, but the striking differentials are ugly. His significant striking impact differential sits at -28.5, meaning he gets outlanded by a wide margin over the course of fights.

Kevin Borjas's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio cliff after Round 1. Against Imanol Rodriguez he dropped his man early, blitzed, then gassed hard in Round 2 and got stalked down and finished. When he cannot secure an early finish, he fades.
• Wrestling is a nightmare matchup. His takedown defense sits at a putrid 0.235. Against a grappler who can chain takedowns, he has no answer. His own difficult matchups list is literally elite grapplers who enforce takedowns and control.
• Recently KO'd and durability questions. He was TKO'd by Imanol Rodriguez in February 2026 and stopped by Alessandro Costa before that, three of his five losses coming by stoppage. Warning: a fighter recently knocked out can get stopped again, especially if hurt. That said, Tsuruya is no knockout artist.

When his gameplan fails, Borjas either gets finished after gassing or, in his best case against Lima, survives on movement and volume to steal rounds.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a grappler versus a defensively porous striker with the worst possible takedown defense for this matchup.

Tsuruya's path is clear. He draws with the lead hand like he did against Hernandez, then levels for the shot. Borjas defends only 23.5 percent of takedowns, and Tsuruya lands 3.6 per fight. Once it hits the mat, Borjas has zero submission threat and Tsuruya's front headlock to back take will hunt the choke. Borjas showed decent closed guard against Imanol Rodriguez, but surviving guard against an elite back-taker who capitalizes on scrambles is a different problem entirely.

Borjas's only real path is the Van blueprint. He needs to make Tsuruya scared to shoot by cracking him early, the way Van's striking froze him. Borjas has the counter left and the over-the-top right to do damage, and Tsuruya's body-shot reaction is a genuine opening. If Borjas rips the liver like he did against Lima, then follows upstairs when Tsuruya lifts his chin, there is a puncher's chance.

But the difference is Van is a polished, cardio-sound pressure striker. Borjas gasses after one round and gets dominated late. Even if he hurts Tsuruya early, sustaining it is the problem he has never solved.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Borjas's most dangerous window. His power is freshest in Round 1, and if he can time a counter left as Tsuruya enters, he could rattle him and shake his confidence like Van did. Tsuruya must respect the counter and not dive recklessly.
• Mid-fight: As Borjas fades, Tsuruya's wrestling takes over. Just like Imanol Rodriguez stalked the gassed Borjas in Round 2, Tsuruya will start landing shots and dragging him down at will. This is where the front headlock and back take come online.
• Late: If it goes long, Borjas has nothing left. His cardio cliff plus Tsuruya's control grappling means the back half belongs to Tsuruya, likely with a submission or a dominant decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown defense mismatch is the whole fight. Borjas defends 23.5 percent; Tsuruya has a perfect defensive record and 14-plus attempts per bout. That gap decides this.
• Borjas fades hard. He dropped Imanol Rodriguez then got finished after gassing. Against a grappler who only gets stronger, that is fatal.
• Tsuruya's body-shot habit is Borjas's one opening. He drops his hands and lifts his chin on body shots, exactly what Borjas exploited against Lima's liver.
• The Van loss is the cautionary tale. A confident striker can freeze Tsuruya. But Borjas lacks Van's cardio and consistency to keep that pressure up.
• Borjas was recently KO'd. He can be hurt, but Tsuruya isn't the finisher to exploit it the way Imanol Rodriguez did.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Tsuruya with a modest score of 27, and the SHAP values explain the tempered confidence:

• Odds increased the score by 21, the biggest single driver, reflecting Tsuruya as a heavy -750 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 5, favoring Tsuruya's cleaner impact profile.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 4, pointing straight at Tsuruya's wrestling volume against a poor takedown defender.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2 and significant_striking_output_differential added 1.
• reach added 1, though both men measure 68 inches, so it is a wash in practice.
• On the other side, striking_defense_percentage shaved off 2 and average_striking_output_differential shaved off 1, small nods to Borjas's live-round striking activity.

The net is a confident lean toward Tsuruya, driven mostly by the odds and the wrestling edge, but the low absolute score reflects Borjas's real one-punch danger.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has hit on Tsuruya before, correctly calling his Round 1 submission win with a 0.69 score. That is a vote of confidence when the pick leans on his grappling.

Borjas is a different story. The model has been wrong on him twice. It picked Andre Lima at 0.82 and Borjas spoiled it, and it picked Ronaldo Rodriguez at 0.65 and Borjas won again. Caution: Borjas has twice beaten the model's expectation as a live dog. He has a habit of pulling upsets when written off, so the +525 price is not free money.

Conclusion

Everything points to Tsuruya. Borjas cannot stop the takedown, cannot survive on the mat, and cannot maintain his output past the first round. Tsuruya draws with the lead hand, levels for the shot, and hunts the back for the choke, exactly as he did to Gurule. Borjas has real early power and a genuine puncher's chance if he freezes Tsuruya like Van did, and his history of upsetting the model demands respect. But the smart read follows the wrestling. WolfTicketsAI takes Rei Tsuruya, most likely by submission once Borjas fades.

Analysis: Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sean Woodson to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Jack Jenkins: +125
Sean Woodson: -150

Jack Jenkins's Breakdown

Jenkins is a pressure fighter who blends Muay Thai striking with judo-flavored wrestling. His game runs on relentless forward motion, and when it clicks he drowns opponents in volume and cage work.

Signature techniques:

• Right high kick to takedown chains. Against Ramon Taveras in September 2025, Jenkins hammered the right high kick on the arm over and over, then kept his knee bent on a repeat attempt to pass his leg across and hit a cross buttock/O Soto Gari throw. That kick-to-throw disguise is elite-level stuff and it wins him the orthodox-vs-southpaw exchanges.
• Leg kick accumulation. Jenkins buckled Don Shainis with repeated inside and low kicks back in 2023, and he leaned on the same weapon to disrupt Herbert Burns's base. His 1.13 leg kicks landed per minute reflect a fighter who chops the base to set up everything else.
• Cage pressure and clinch wrestling. Against Shainis he pinned him to the fence, mixed knees and short shots, and controlled pace. Against Burns he stuffed the takedowns of a decorated grappler and finished with strikes in round three.

Technically he has evolved by adding a high-guard "crazy monkey" shell and a front kick to manage distance, both visible early against Gabriel Santos. But those additions carry risk, as you'll see below.

When his gameplan works, Jenkins finishes. He owns a round three TKO of Burns and stacks decision wins by controlling range and grip fighting.

Jack Jenkins's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Reactive front kick defense. Against Gabriel Santos in February 2025, Jenkins threw a front kick then failed to guard the return. Santos delayed his own counter front kick by roughly 90 seconds, caught Jenkins clean, and flipped the fight. Jenkins repeats his own offense with poor defensive recovery afterward.
• Fence-escape neck exposure. In that same Santos fight, Jenkins stood along the cage while posting on one arm, which stopped him from hand-fighting. Santos took the back, locked the body triangle, and finished with the rear-naked choke. Any grappler who gets to his back has a clear finishing lane.
• Cardio and counters when overextending. The Chepe Mariscal loss in 2023 (KO/TKO, though tied to a shoulder injury) and prior notes flag stamina dips and susceptibility to counters when he lunges. He got KO'd in that bout, which is a real warning.

Sean Woodson's Breakdown

Woodson, "The Sniper," is a 6'3" boxer with a 78-inch reach who fights tall and picks opponents apart from range. His Golden Gloves foundation shows in clean straight punches and a busy jab.

Signature techniques:

• Long-range jab and straight punching. Against Alex Caceres in May 2024 he beat a creative mover to the punch all night with his jab, controlling every round. His head strikes landed per minute sit at 4.15, a high figure driven by that reach.
• Stance-switching pressure into finishes. Against Fernando Padilla in December 2024, Woodson stepped from orthodox to southpaw mid-combination to keep pressure on a hurt, circling opponent and finished in round one. That George Foreman-style step-off removes the usual escape route from tall strikers.
• Length-based takedown defense. Against Charles Jourdain in January 2024, he used his long free leg to hop out of single legs in open space and reset to range. His frame makes clean shots hard to complete.

His evolution is real. He has tightened defensive grappling and shown composure against submissions, surviving Jourdain's deep guillotine in the final round and Padilla's rubber guard and omoplata looks.

Sean Woodson's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Right hand drops when jabbing, left hook counter open. Luis Saldana dropped Woodson twice in 2022 with a counter left hook and a counter jab as Woodson pawed with his right hand low. That is a repeatable hole.
• Grappling under sustained pressure and submissions. Julian Erosa took his back and finished with a D'Arce in round three in 2020. His takedown defense ratio is a poor 0.15. Pressure wrestlers who get to his back have finished him.
• Recent KO loss. Woodson was TKO'd by Dan Ige in April 2025, reportedly stopped around a poor single-leg attempt. Heuristic warning: a fighter recently finished by strikes can be finished again, and Jenkins carries pop.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic tall boxer vs pressure grappler puzzle.

• What Jenkins can exploit: Woodson's takedown defense sits at 0.15, and he has been submitted from the back before by Erosa. Jenkins's exact win path is cage pressure into his judo throws and back-take game. If he gets Woodson to the fence and works to the back, the rear-naked choke that finished so many of Jenkins's opponents lines up perfectly with how Erosa beat Woodson. The kick-to-throw entry he showed on Taveras could disguise a level change.
• What Woodson can exploit: Jenkins is the shorter man with a 68-inch reach against Woodson's 78. Jourdain and Caceres both failed to close that gap cleanly. Every time Jenkins throws a front kick without recovering, Woodson's counters punish, echoing what Santos did. And Jenkins was KO'd by Mariscal, so Woodson's straight punches down the pipe are a live finishing threat.

The lesson from history is that Woodson loses to grapplers who reach his back (Erosa) and to counter punchers who exploit his low right (Saldana, Ige). Jenkins is more the former than the latter but lacks Erosa's slick back-taking.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Woodson's jab and reach should own the open floor, much like he did against Caceres and Jourdain. Jenkins will need to eat some to close distance.
• Mid-fight: The fight turns on whether Jenkins can pin Woodson to the fence. If he does, his clinch and throw game mirror the exact pressure that troubled Woodson against Erosa. If Woodson keeps circling to open space, he racks up points.
• Late rounds: Jenkins has shown cardio dips (Mariscal notes), while Woodson maintains high output over three rounds. If it stays standing, the later rounds favor Woodson's volume.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach gap is huge. 78 vs 68 inches. Woodson's jab dictated fights against Caceres and Jourdain and should here too.
• Jenkins's path is the back-take. Woodson's 0.15 takedown defense and the Erosa submission loss are his clearest flaws.
• Both men were recently finished. Jenkins KO'd by Mariscal, Woodson TKO'd by Ige. This one has finish potential either way.
• Counter risk cuts both ways. Woodson drops his right when jabbing (Saldana, Ige); Jenkins fails to recover after front kicks (Santos).
• Cardio favors Woodson if the fight stays long and standing.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Woodson with a score of 3. The features that pushed it there:

• recent_win_perc increased the score by 3.0, the biggest single driver.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased it by 2.0, reflecting Jenkins's wrestling volume as a factor the model weighed.
• odds added 1.0, aligning with Woodson as the -150 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_striking_impact_differential, and recent_average_striking_output_differential each added 1.0, all pointing to Woodson's superior striking numbers.

Pulling the other way:

• reach decreased the score by 3.0 (a large swing), and striking_defense_percentage dropped it by 2.0.
• trueskill and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each shaved off 1.0.

Net effect still favors Woodson, but the reach and defense features show the model sees this as competitive rather than a blowout.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has hit on Jenkins in three of his last outings, including the Burns TKO and the Taveras decision, but missed on the Mariscal and Emmers fights, both times picking wrong. On Woodson, the model went 3 for 4 recently, correct on Padilla, Caceres, and Jourdain, but wrong on the most important recent data point, the Dan Ige KO loss. That miss is a caution flag, since it means the model has overrated Woodson before against a heavy-handed opponent, which is exactly the archetype Jenkins fits.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Sean Woodson. The reach, the jab, and the volume that beat Caceres and Jourdain are the right tools to keep Jenkins at the end of long punches and punish his sloppy post-kick recovery. Jenkins's live path is dragging this to the fence and hunting the back, the same route Erosa used to submit Woodson, so this is not risk-free. But with the striking differentials and recent form on his side, the pick is Woodson by decision or late stoppage if he keeps it standing.