UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Analysis: Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joaquin Buckley to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Joaquin Buckley: +114
Mike Malott: -135

Joaquin Buckley's Breakdown

Buckley has turned into one of the more complete strikers at 170 since dropping from middleweight. The move unlocked his power against similar-sized bodies, and he went on a tear in 2024. You saw the peak of it against Stephen Thompson in October 2024, when he ate counter rights, kept marching, and crushed Wonderboy along the fence in Round 3 after Thompson stayed stationary post-counter. Then came the Covington doctor's stoppage in December 2024, a genuinely impressive technical night where Buckley fought southpaw and used three weapons that define his best version:

• Lead uppercut on the level change. Against Covington, every time Colby ducked his head outside Buckley's lead leg for a double, Buckley met him with a lead uppercut into a left hook. This stuffed shots and opened the cut that ended the fight.
• Hip-forward takedown defense. Instead of sprawling, Buckley drove his hips into Covington on contact and put the wrestler on his back. That same anti-grappling framework showed up against Duraev in 2022, where he defended the Dagestani handcuff and figure-four leg control along the fence.
• Explosive finishing combinations. The level-change overhand that iced Morono in Round 3, the right hook-uppercut that dropped Arroyo, the wheel kicks and shifting blitzes. When Buckley smells blood he closes with intent.

His technical evolution is real. He added opportunistic takedowns and ground-and-pound against Ruziboev, and showed better shot selection and patience than the wild middleweight who got countered by Curtis and Di Chirico.

But the last two fights tell a different story. Buckley is 0-2 in his last two, both lopsided decision losses to elite grapplers. Usman took him down in each of the first four rounds in June 2025 and piled up nearly 13 minutes of control. Then Sean Brady did the same in May 2026, catching body kicks into takedowns and cycling half guard to hunt Kimuras and arm triangles.

Joaquin Buckley's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Catchable kicks against grapplers. This is the glaring one. Against Brady, his body kicks were grabbed and turned straight into takedowns. The Insights were blunt about it: "body kicks against a guy who will grab your leg." If you kick at a grappler, you end up on your back.
• Takedown defense collapses against elite wrestling. Despite the Covington highlight, Usman took him down at will for four rounds, and Brady ran him to the floor repeatedly. His career takedown defense sits around 42 percent, and it cratered against top-tier shots.
• Bottom game and submission traps. Against Brady he instinctively accepted half guard, which played right into Kimura and arm triangle threats. He landed one kipping escape but was controlled otherwise. Zero control time against Usman tells the story.
• Defensive lapses during his own blitzes. Shifting combinations bring his feet together and kill his base. Curtis countered this pattern for the KO in 2022, and it remains the opening when Buckley overcommits.

Mike Malott's Breakdown

Malott is riding a four-fight win streak and just turned in the best performance of his career, finishing Gilbert Burns in April 2026. That night showed a fighter who can adjust. Known as a kick-heavy BJJ black belt with switch-hitting striking, he deliberately boxed in orthodox to avoid feeding Burns the legs or the base to shoot. Then he stuffed all seven Burns takedown attempts and dropped a four-time BJJ world champ with clean boxing.

His signature tools:

• Lead uppercut splitting the guard. This was the key to the Burns finish. He cracked the uppercut through the high guard, then followed with a left hook and an overhand right to close the show in Round 3.
• Step-offline left hook. The counter weapon that knocked out Charles Radtke in May 2025. Malott cuts the cage, steps across the opponent's path, and lands the hook off the angle as they move in.
• Grappling to close rounds. Against Kevin Holland in October 2025 he hit a slam takedown in Round 3, passed to half guard, dropped elbows, and nearly finished with an arm triangle. The submission game that tapped Lainesse in Round 1 and set up the Fugitt KO is always lurking.

His evolution is the discipline. The Burns fight showed he can abandon his flashier habits and execute a tight, patient boxing plan for a full main event. That's a different, more dangerous Malott than the early-career finisher.

Mike Malott's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio in deep water. This is the big question mark. Against Magny in January 2024, Malott dominated early with low kicks and mount control, then gassed in Round 3 and got stopped. Magny weathered the storm and reversed him with a half-guard sweep. Malott admitted the Burns camp was brutal specifically to fix this.
• Trouble when his primary plan gets stuffed. Against Trevin Giles, when his grappling was neutralized and Giles scrambled out of his takedowns, Malott looked uncomfortable in forced striking exchanges. When plan A fails, his adaptability has wavered.
• Leg kick vulnerability in his boxing stance. Burns stumbled him with a calf kick to open Round 2. Staying planted to box leaves his lead leg available.
• Counter right hand catches him. Holland tagged him repeatedly with the long right and briefly got top position in Round 1. He recovers, but he can be hit clean coming in.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker-versus-striker fight on paper, but the deciding factors are specific.

What Malott can exploit: Buckley's catchable kicks and overcommitted blitzes are exactly what Malott punishes. The step-offline left hook that dropped Radtke is built to meet a fighter charging in on straight lines, which is Buckley's habit when he opens up. Malott's lead uppercut is also a nightmare for a fighter who resets with his chin high after combinations, a Buckley flaw going back to the Curtis and Di Chirico KO losses. And if Buckley throws body kicks like he did against Brady, Malott has the grappling to catch and put him down.

What Buckley can exploit: Malott's cardio. If Buckley survives the first two rounds without being taken down, he historically gets stronger late. His Round 5 surge against Usman, stuffing six takedowns and outstriking a former champ, shows his gas tank runs deep. Malott fading in Round 3 against Magny is the blueprint. Buckley's counter uppercut on the level change, the one that wrecked Covington, could also meet Malott's own takedown entries. And Buckley's raw power is a notch above anyone Malott has faced on the feet.

The historical parallel: Magny beat Malott by surviving early and pushing pace. Buckley has that same durability and late-round engine. But the flip side is Brady and Usman, who show that a disciplined grappler-boxer can control Buckley for 25 minutes. Malott is a better pure striker than either, with grappling to fall back on.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Malott's patience and accuracy likely win the opening frames. His jab and lead uppercut control range, and he has the takedown threat to keep Buckley honest. Buckley tends to start slow and calibrate, which played into Brady and Usman early.
• Mid-fight: If Malott lands a takedown or two, he can bank rounds the way he did against Holland. But this is also where Buckley's power starts landing and where Malott's leg can get chewed up. Watch for Buckley's level-change counters if Malott shoots.
• Championship rounds: Not applicable here unless this is a five-rounder, but even in a three-round fight, Round 3 is where Malott historically dips. Buckley lives for the late surge. If this fight is close going into the final five minutes, Buckley's conditioning edge is real.

Analysis and Key Points

• Buckley is 0-2 in his last two, both one-sided losses to grapplers (Usman, Brady). The downward trend against elite competition is a genuine flag.
• Malott is 4-0 in his streak and coming off a career-best finish of Gilbert Burns, where he stuffed all seven takedowns.
• Cardio is the swing factor. Malott's Round 3 gas-out against Magny versus Buckley's Round 5 rally against Usman could not be more opposite.
• Kick selection matters. Buckley's body kicks got him taken down by Brady. Against a BJJ black belt like Malott, the same mistake is fatal.
• Buckley's power and counter uppercut remain live equalizers. Covington, Thompson, and Morono all found that out.
• Reach: Buckley holds a 76-to-73 inch reach edge, a small but real advantage on the outside.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data shows a razor-thin call that landed on Buckley at a 0 score:

• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 3.0, the biggest single factor. Buckley's 0-2 recent skid drags him down hard.
• win_streak_diff decreased the score by 1.0, reflecting Malott's four-fight run against Buckley's losing streak.
• odds increased the score by 2.0, since Buckley being the underdog priced in value the model liked.
• trueskill increased the score by 2.0, pointing to Buckley's deeper résumé against elite welterweights.
• Striking impact differentials (recent and overall) and significant_striking_output_differential each added 1.0, crediting Buckley's volume and power.
• reach added 1.0 for the three-inch edge.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 1.0, and striking_defense_percentage added 1.0.

The model fought itself here. The recent form hammered Buckley down, but his odds value, TrueSkill, reach, and striking metrics clawed it back to a net lean on Buckley.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong but imperfect read on Buckley, going correct on most of his run, including the Thompson, Covington, and Ruziboev wins. But it was wrong on the Usman fight, picking Buckley to win when he got outwrestled. On Malott, the model nailed the Burns, Radtke, and Lainesse predictions, but missed badly on Magny (0.22 for Malott, who lost) and whiffed on both the Holland and Fugitt calls. The takeaway: the model has struggled to time Malott's cardio dips and underdog grappling upsets, which is exactly the kind of variance this fight carries.

Conclusion

This is one of the closest calls on the board, and the model knows it. Buckley walks in off two bad losses to grapplers, and Malott's BJJ-heavy, catch-the-kick game is a legitimate stylistic threat. But WolfTicketsAI leans Buckley on the strength of his reach, striking power, TrueSkill pedigree, and underdog value, betting that his late-round engine and genuine knockout threat outlast a Malott who has gassed before. If Buckley keeps the body kicks holstered and makes Malott pay in the championship minutes, the pick cashes. WolfTicketsAI's final pick is Joaquin Buckley.

Analysis: Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Erin Blanchfield to Win

Score: 24
Odds:
Erin Blanchfield: -325
Jasmine Jasudavicius: +260

Erin Blanchfield's Breakdown

Blanchfield is one of the sharpest grapplers in the women's flyweight division, and her recent run shows a fighter who keeps adding layers to her ground game. Against Tracy Cortez in November 2025, she showed off that signature inside trip in round 2, the same technique she compared favorably to Henry Cejudo's. When Cortez scrambled up, Blanchfield chased her down with a double leg, locked hands under the butt, and rode the position into a crucifix. From there she threaded her legs Barrett Yoshida-style and finished with a rare rear naked choke from the crucifix. That is high-level, creative grappling you rarely see at 125.

Her signature weapons:

• Inside trip from the clinch. She used it to flatten Cortez in round 2 (2025) and to put Jessica Andrade on her back in round 2 (2023) by stepping to the overhooked side before passing the open guard. It is her cleanest entry when wrestling in tight.
• Chain wrestling into back control and submissions. Against Miranda Maverick (2021), she hit a double leg in round 1, then rolled through to the back in round 2 and finished a rear naked choke without both hooks, prioritizing the throat over position. Against Molly McCann (2022) she used the crucifix from side control to set up the choke and never took a punch.
• Crossbody ride top control. Against Rose Namajunas (2024) she neutralized Rose's trademark fence escapes in round 2 by controlling the hips and legs, preventing the scoot-to-the-fence standup that worked against Rose's prior opponents.

Her striking has improved but still serves the wrestling. The jab-cross and step-up inside low kick are mostly entries, not standalone weapons. Her technical evolution is real on the mat, from basic back takes to crucifix finishes and stockade control, but the striking remains the weak link.

Erin Blanchfield's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking at distance against rangy strikers. The Manon Fiorot loss (2024) is the blueprint. Across five rounds Fiorot's 91% takedown defense stuffed the double legs, and her side kicks and check hooks punished Blanchfield every time she reset with her chin high. By round 5 Blanchfield's output cratered. Any opponent who can keep it standing and punish her entries has a path.
• Chin-high resets after combinations. Noted against Andrade (2023) and Alpar (2021), she throws the 1-2 with both hands extended and lingers in range. Fiorot exploited this repeatedly. Jasudavicius does not have the striking craft to exploit it the way Fiorot did, but it is worth flagging.
• Fence wrestling against stronger grapplers. Taila Santos (2023) manhandled her in the clinch for a round and a half, using underhooks to stand her back up and deny takedowns. Santos only lost because she gifted top position with a botched trip. Jasudavicius is physically strong and clinch-heavy, so this is the most relevant warning.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Breakdown

Jasudavicius is a grinding, grappling-first flyweight who wins with volume clinch work, pressure wrestling, and suffocating top control. She now holds the second-most control time in division history after her April 2026 win over Karine Silva. Her best performances come when she drags opponents into deep water and drowns them.

Her signature weapons:

• Pressure wrestling and persistent takedowns. Against Karine Silva (2026) she kept shooting despite early failures and submission threats, finishing takedowns in rounds 2 and 3. Against Priscila Cachoeira (2024) her takedowns were described as effortless, running the pipe on single legs into dominant control.
• Submission defense while completing takedowns. The Silva fight is the clearest example. She got caught in a standing guillotine in round 2 and powered through to side control anyway. She also got both arms inside a round 1 triangle to kill it. That composure under submission pressure is her most improved trait.
• Crucifix and control-based ground striking. Against Ariane da Silva (2024) she used the bounded crucifix to pin and pity-patter strikes for control time. Against Andrade (2025) she took the back and finished a rear naked choke, earning her BJJ black belt in the cage.

Her evolution shows a sharper submission game, back-to-back D'Arce chokes, and a black belt finishing instinct. But the striking is still a liability.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking defense and chin against power. The Manon Fiorot loss (October 2025) is a serious red flag. She ate a straight left down the middle at 1:14 of round 1, did the "chicken dance," and got finished. That was the first stoppage of her career. Heuristic warning: she was recently KO'd, and a clean power shot could end her again. Blanchfield is not a knockout artist, but Jasudavicius has now shown her chin can be cracked.
• Takedown entries that expose her neck. She repeatedly shoots into guillotines and gets caught, as seen against Silva (2026) in round 2. Blanchfield is an elite guillotine and front-choke artist. She finished JJ Aldrich (2022) off exactly this kind of exposed-neck shot. This is a dangerous mismatch for Jasmine.
• Slow starts and early striking deficit. Natalia Silva (2022) outclassed her on the feet and even reversed her clinch with a head tilt. Against Silva (2026) she lost round 1. If she cannot close distance early, she falls behind.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus grappler, but the levels are not equal. Blanchfield's submission creativity and scramble awareness are a tier above Jasudavicius's control-first approach.

• Blanchfield techniques that exploit Jasmine's gaps: The guillotine and front-choke game is the obvious one. Jasudavicius shoots into chokes, and Blanchfield finished Aldrich (2022) and converts scrambles better than anyone Jasmine has faced. Blanchfield's crucifix-to-back-take, the one that finished Cortez and McCann, is a direct counter to Jasmine's habit of turtling and giving up the back during grappling exchanges.
• Jasmine techniques that trouble Blanchfield: Her best path is the Taila Santos blueprint, using size and underhooks to stuff Blanchfield's fence takedowns and grind from top. If Jasmine can reverse a scramble and establish her heavy top control, she can steal control-time rounds. But Santos needed to out-muscle Blanchfield for a round and a half, and still lost.
• Historical parallel: The Cortez fight (2025) is the closest comp. Cortez is a similar pressure grappler, and Blanchfield dragged her into a scramble and finished her in round 2 with the crucifix choke. Jasudavicius fights much like Cortez, only with a worse chin.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Jasmine will pressure and try to clinch along the fence, the way she did against Hansen and Maverick. Blanchfield's danger is her striking entries, but on the mat she is the quicker, more opportunistic grappler. Expect early scrambles where Blanchfield hunts the neck.
• Mid-fight: If Jasmine lands a takedown, she grinds. But Blanchfield is a nightmare off her back and in scrambles, exactly where Santos got reversed. Blanchfield's crucifix and back-take threats escalate the longer they grapple.
• Championship rounds: Jasmine's cardio is elite and she wins late, as she showed against Mayra Bueno Silva (2025) and Karine Silva (2026). But Blanchfield also pushes a relentless pace and took Fiorot five hard rounds. Cardio is not the edge Jasmine usually enjoys here.

Analysis and Key Points

• Blanchfield's guillotine game vs Jasmine's reckless entries is the fight-defining mismatch. Jasmine ate a standing guillotine against Karine Silva and survived; Blanchfield finishes those.
• Jasmine's best hope is the Taila Santos clinch grind, using strength to stuff takedowns and control from top. But even Santos lost once the scramble opened up.
• Blanchfield's crucifix-to-back finish that stopped Cortez and McCann directly punishes Jasmine's turtle-and-defend tendencies.
• Warning: Jasmine was just KO'd by Fiorot with a straight left in 74 seconds. Her chin is now a known question, though Blanchfield is not the striker to exploit it.
• Warning: Blanchfield struggles with rangy strikers who stuff her shots, but Jasmine is not that fighter. Jasmine wants to grapple, which plays into Blanchfield's strongest phase.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Blanchfield at a confidence score of 24, driven mostly by the odds.

• Odds added 19 points, the dominant factor, reflecting Blanchfield as a heavy -325 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each added 2, favoring Blanchfield's cleaner, higher-impact output.
• recent_win_perc added 2 and striking_defense_percentage added 2, both leaning Blanchfield.
• recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each nudged the score up by 1.
• trueskill actually subtracted 1, a minor pull, but Blanchfield's Mu of 38.8 is far above Jasmine's 28.1, so this is noise rather than a real concern.

The relatively low final score of 24 reflects a grappler-versus-grappler fight where the model sees a real favorite but not a lock.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an excellent record on Blanchfield, going correct on six of seven predictions. The only miss was the Fiorot fight (2024), where the model picked Blanchfield at 0.57 and she lost a decision to a rangy striker. That is the exact style that beats her, and Jasmine is not that style, so the miss does not apply here.

On Jasudavicius, the model has been strong, correctly calling her wins over Karine Silva, Andrade, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Ariane da Silva, and correctly picking Fiorot to beat her. The one relevant miss was picking against her and losing on the Maverick fight. Overall the model reads both fighters well, which adds confidence here.

Conclusion

Jasudavicius is a tough, improved grappler with elite cardio, but she is walking into the worst possible stylistic matchup. Her habit of shooting into chokes feeds directly into Blanchfield's best finishing tool, and her chin is now a proven question mark after the Fiorot KO. Blanchfield is the more creative scrambler, the sharper submission hunter, and the clear favorite. WolfTicketsAI sides with Erin Blanchfield, most likely by submission in the middle rounds.

Analysis: Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kyle Daukaus to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Marc-Andre Barriault: +170
Kyle Daukaus: -205

Marc-Andre Barriault's Breakdown

"Powerbar" is a blue-collar pressure fighter who grinds people down with clinch work and volume boxing. His tools are not fancy, but they work when he can corner a guy and rough him up. You saw the formula in the Dalcha Lungiambula win (Sept 2021), where he jabbed, clinched, and drowned a powerful but gassing opponent over three rounds. His best offensive highlight is the right kick to right straight combo he used to break Eryk Anders' nose and drop him in June 2023, a Fight of the Night effort that showed his willingness to bang with a wrestler.

His signature weapons: - Clinch roughhousing with underhook control. Against Shara Magomedov (July 2025) he used the underhook to land short punches and look for trips and knees, even stunning Shara with a right hand that crumpled his nose. Against Chris Curtis (Jan 2024) he grabbed the collar tie and threw "hockey fighting" uppercuts in the third. - Right kick to right straight. The Anders fight is the blueprint, kick occupies the guard, straight follows clean. - Timing strikes on kickers. He iced Chidi Njokuani (Feb 2022) by stepping in with a 1-2 while Chidi was on one leg from an inside low kick.

But here is the problem. Barriault has lost four of his last five, dropping decisions to Oleksiejczuk and Magomedov and getting KO'd by Pyfer and Stoltzfus. The downward trend is real and recent.

Marc-Andre Barriault's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Backs straight up when hurt and shells on the fence. This got him finished by Bruno Silva (May 2025, though he won that fight it exposed the habit mid-round) and flat out knocked out by Joe Pyfer (June 2024), who walked him to the cage and landed the overhand. Dustin Stoltzfus KO'd him in round one (Nov 2024) the same way. He was recently KO'd, so warning: it can happen again.
• Body shot susceptibility. Against Oleksiejczuk (Feb 2026) his corner literally saw him squirm from body shots, and the opponent targeted the midsection until the body was compromised. Any sustained body attack drains his pressure.
• Grappling defense and submission exposure. Anthony Hernandez (Sept 2022) controlled him with far wrist control and finished with an arm triangle in round three. His takedown defense sits around 46 percent, and he has limited offensive wrestling.

Kyle Daukaus's Breakdown

"The D'Arce Knight" is a 6'3" southpaw grappler with 12 career submission wins. His game is built around front chokes and fence wrestling, and his recent form is hot. Before his Bo Nickal loss he was on a six-fight streak with five first-round finishes. He iced Michel Pereira in under a minute (Aug 2025) with a compact left straight to right hook as Pereira circled into the shot, then D'Arce'd Gerald Meerschaert in the first round (Nov 2025).

His signature weapons: - D'Arce and front headlock chokes. He tapped Jamie Pickett (Feb 2022) with a last-second D'Arce after baiting reactive striking off the fence, and secured a standing RNC on Kevin Holland (the overturned 2021 bout). - Fence wrestling with reactive takedowns. His Pickett system was textbook: pressure to the fence, threaten the takedown, follow with strikes, then shoot when they swing back. He averages over 8 takedown attempts per fight. - Sequenced combination punching. Against Meerschaert he stunned him with 2-punch and 3-punch groupings rather than one long flurry, then transitioned to the choke.

Kyle Daukaus's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Backs straight to the fence and drops his right when retreating. Roman Dolidze (June 2022) timed a left hook on a clinch exit and finished with a knee. Eryk Anders (Dec 2022) did the same, backing him up and countering his exits with right hooks for a round-two KO.
• Leg kick defense is poor. Anders landed 28 consecutive leg kicks on him without a single check. That rooted him in place and set up the finish.
• Shoots desperation takedowns when hurt. Both Dolidze and Anders exploited this, when Kyle got stung he reached for a telegraphed shot and ate counters. He was recently KO'd by Bo Nickal (June 2026), so the chin question is live. Warning applies.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a grappler-striker puzzle where both men share the exact same flaw: they back straight up and get countered on exits. Whoever enforces their preferred phase wins.

• What Daukaus can do to Barriault: Kyle's biggest edge is grappling. Barriault's takedown defense is leaky and he got arm-triangled by Hernandez using the same front-headlock family Daukaus lives in. If Kyle drags this to the mat or catches a neck during one of Barriault's clinch dives, the D'Arce is right there. Barriault has a habit of "falling into clinches," which is precisely where Daukaus hunts chokes.
• What Barriault can do to Daukaus: Barriault is the bigger puncher on paper and Daukaus just got starched by Nickal. If Barriault commits to leg kicks (which Daukaus fails to check, see the 28 unanswered Anders kicks) and his right kick to right straight, he can hurt Kyle. The Pyfer and Dolidze KOs both prove Daukaus-style fighters who back up get caught. But note, Barriault rarely kicks and defaults to headhunting, which was the exact criticism in the Magomedov loss.
• Historical parallel: The Anders fights are the Rosetta Stone here. Anders KO'd Daukaus by backing him up and chopping the legs, then lost to Barriault's kick-straight combo. On paper that hints Barriault has a live-dog path. But Barriault needs to actually throw those kicks, and his recent fights show he abandons them.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Daukaus is the sharper, faster starter. Five of his last six wins came in round one. Barriault is a slow-building pressure fighter who usually peaks in rounds two and three. That timing gap is dangerous for Marc-Andre, because Kyle's best finishing window overlaps with Barriault's weakest defensive phase.
• Mid-fight: If Barriault survives the opening salvo, his cardio and volume can take over, like they did late against Curtis and Anders. This is his only realistic route, grind Kyle into deep water and make him carry his own weight.
• Late: Daukaus has shown cardio dips, but so has every opponent Barriault has tried to drown. The problem is getting there. Barriault must weather a first round where Kyle is hunting the choke and the counter hook.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both fighters are coming off KO losses. Barriault lost a decision to Oleksiejczuk, but was KO'd twice in his recent skid. Daukaus was just brutally stopped by Nickal. Chin durability is a flashing warning light for both.
• Barriault has lost 4 of his last 5. The downward trend is undeniable and the model knows it.
• Daukaus owns the grappling edge. Over 8 takedown attempts per fight and 12 submission wins against a 46 percent takedown defense is a bad look for Powerbar.
• Shared defensive flaw: both back straight up. Whoever lands the exit counter first likely ends it, Pyfer, Dolidze, and Anders all cashed this ticket.
• Barriault's puncher's chance lives in leg kicks and the right kick to right straight, but he historically abandons them for headhunting.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence is thin at 21, this is a cautious pick, not a lock. The features that moved the needle: - Odds cut the score by 12, the single biggest factor. The betting market has Daukaus a clear favorite at -205, and the model leaned into that. - recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight dropped the score by 4, reflecting Daukaus's heavy wrestling volume as a path to victory. - striking_defense_percentage added 3 back toward Barriault, acknowledging his edge in some striking defense metrics. - recent_win_perc shaved 2 off, noting that both men have shaky recent records but tilting away from Barriault's 33 percent recent clip. - Smaller nudges from significant_striking_impact_differential, trueskill, and recent_striking_impact_differential mostly balanced out.

Net result is a lean to Daukaus driven by the odds and his wrestling threat, tempered by Barriault's striking defense numbers.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed but mostly solid book on both men. On Barriault it went correct on the Bruno Silva, Anders, Marquez, and Jordan Wright calls, but missed on Stoltzfus (predicted Barriault, he got KO'd) and Chris Curtis (predicted Barriault, lost split). On Daukaus it nailed the Meerschaert, Pickett, and Dolidze calls, but whiffed on Pereira (picked Pereira, Kyle KO'd him) and Eryk Anders (picked Daukaus, he got KO'd). The Anders miss is worth flagging, the model has been burned before trusting Daukaus against a puncher who backs him up, which is exactly the threat Barriault represents.

Conclusion

Daukaus is the pick. He is the live favorite, the superior grappler, and the faster starter, and Barriault's leaky takedown defense walks straight into Kyle's D'Arce and reactive wrestling. The path to victory for Barriault exists through leg kicks and the kick-straight combo that cracked Anders, but he keeps abandoning those weapons for headhunting, and his skid plus two recent KO losses make him hard to trust. Take the grappler, but keep the 21 score in mind, both chins are cracked and this could end violently either way. WolfTicketsAI rides with Kyle Daukaus.

Analysis: Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mandel Nallo to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Mandel Nallo: -278
Nate Landwehr: +225

Mandel Nallo's Breakdown

Nallo is a Tristar product out of Montreal who waited 14 years for his UFC shot. He finally got it against Jai Herbert at UFC Winnipeg, and it was a wild two minutes. He came out blazing, exactly the kind of start he built his 14-0 finishing record on. Nallo backed Herbert to the cage and nearly ended it early, landing a clean right hand behind the ear that had Herbert hurt at least four times by Herbert's own admission.

His signature tools are clear:

• High-volume pressure striking. Against Herbert he threw 31 strikes in just over two minutes and sat at 8.61 significant strikes per minute pre-fight. He hunts the finish from the opening bell. This shows up in his gaudy knockdown numbers and output stats.
• Head hunting from distance. Roughly 93% of his significant strikes against Herbert targeted the head at range. He landed 13 of 28 head strikes before the finish and his head strikes landed per minute sit at 6.24.
• Grappling survival instincts. When Herbert first dropped him, Nallo rolled for a leg lock to prove he was conscious and bought time to stand. That is a smart read from a man who has 5 rear-naked choke wins on his record.

The problem is he has only one UFC fight, and it ended with him flat on his back. His entire Octagon sample is a Round 1 KO loss. That matters a lot here.

Mandel Nallo's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin durability at the elite level. Herbert dropped him twice in a single round. His regional competition never tested his beard the way UFC power does. Warning: Nallo was just KO'd in his last fight. That risk carries directly into this bout.
• Counter defense while pressing forward. Herbert flat out said he knew the counter right would land once Nallo backed him up. Nallo walks straight into pockets with his head still, and that is exactly how he got dropped the first time in Round 1.
• Shot selection when hurt. On unsteady legs, Nallo threw a body kick instead of covering up or clinching. Herbert countered with three crisp punches that finished him. Compromised and still gambling, that is a recipe for another finish.

His striking defense numbers back this up. A 32% significant striking defense and a 30% overall striking defense are alarming for a man who absorbs 8.64 head strikes per minute.

Nate Landwehr's Breakdown

Landwehr is the opposite kind of fighter: a pressure grinder who wears people down with volume, cardio, and a willingness to eat shots to deliver his own. He has been in the UFC trenches for years with wins over David Onama, Ludovit Klein, Austin Lingo, Darren Elkins, and Jamall Emmers.

His signature weapons:

• False entries. He steps in, plants, then pushes back off the lead foot, baiting opponents to swing at air. This threw off Klein, Onama, and Morgan Charriere. Against a free-swinging volume puncher like Nallo, this is a real tool.
• Clinch and dirty boxing. Against Emmers in 2024 he lost the opening exchanges, got cut, then dragged Emmers into the clinch and won the dirty boxing before finishing with an uppercut at 4:43 of Round 1. He uses his frame and double collar tie to grind, as he did against Dan Ige with knees up the middle.
• Submission opportunism. He choked out Klein with an anaconda when Klein shot sloppy, and submitted Lingo via choke in Round 2. He hunts necks in scrambles.

But the recent story is grim. Landwehr has lost his last three fights, all by KO/TKO: Cub Swanson (2026), Charriere (2025), and Dooho Choi (2024). That is 100% recent win percentage lost, and it is a downward trend that cannot be ignored.

Nate Landwehr's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No head movement after punching. This is the big one. He throws and marches straight forward with his head on a string. Charriere and Swanson both punished this. Nallo is a head hunter with volume who could walk into exactly this window.
• Cracked chin and fear of power. Analysts noted Choi, Ige, and Swanson all "spooked" him with power. His chin has visibly cracked at UFC level. Warning: Landwehr has been KO'd in three straight fights. Any clean shot is a live finishing threat.
• Compromised while checking kicks. Against Swanson he got blasted with punches while lifting his leg to check calf kicks, caught on one leg. He also eats damage through his high guard while advancing.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic puncher versus pressure-grinder clash, and the key variable is who lands clean first.

• Nallo's path: His head hunting volume and that clean right hand behind the ear are exactly the type of shots that have dropped Landwehr three times running. Landwehr marches forward with no head movement after he throws, which hands Nallo a stationary target in the pocket. Swanson and Charriere both found this. Nallo hits harder on paper than either.
• Landwehr's path: His false entries could bait the aggressive Nallo into swinging at air and gassing early. If he survives the first round and drags Nallo into the clinch or a scramble, Nallo's cardio and chin are untested past two minutes. Landwehr choked out Klein and Lingo off exactly these kinds of exchanges.

The Emmers fight is the warning sign for Nallo. Emmers wobbled Landwehr early and still lost once he faded. But Emmers took that fight on short notice and gassed. Nallo's whole career has ended inside the first round, so we do not know how he looks past minute two.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Nallo's window. His 8.61 strikes per minute and finishing intent against a chin that has failed three times straight means the first five minutes are genuinely dangerous for Landwehr. If Nallo lands that right hand clean, this is over fast.
• Mid-fight: If Landwehr weathers the storm, the picture flips. His false entries, clinch grind, and submission hunting start to dominate a fighter who has never shown deep-water cardio in the UFC. Charriere faded against this pressure in Round 2 before rallying.
• Later rounds: Advantage Landwehr, if he gets there. Nallo at 37 with a one-fight sample and no UFC decisions is a total unknown past the opening frame.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both men were just KO'd. This is a chin-versus-chin coin flip dressed up as a favorite-versus-dog line. Nallo lost to Herbert, Landwehr lost to Swanson, both inside a week of each other in April 2026.
• Nallo's volume meets Landwehr's worst flaw. No head movement after punching is how Landwehr lost his last three. Nallo throws constant head shots.
• Landwehr's volume meets Nallo's worst flaw. Untested chin and bad counter defense while pressing. Landwehr is durable enough to make Nallo work, and dangerous in the clinch and on the mat.
• Cardio is the swing factor. Nallo has never seen Round 2 in the UFC. Landwehr lives there. If this gets past the first five minutes, the math shifts hard toward Landwehr.
• Reach edge to Nallo at 75 inches versus 72, which slightly helped the model.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Nallo but only at a score of 20, which is low and reflects how close this is.

• odds was the dominant driver, pushing the score up by 16. Nallo is a sizable -278 favorite and that carried the pick.
• recent_win_perc added 3. Nallo's recent record reads better than Landwehr's three-fight skid.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and trueskill each added 2.
• reach, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged it up by 1.
• striking_defense_percentage was the lone meaningful drag, cutting the score by 2. That is the model flagging Nallo's leaky 32% defense, the same flaw Herbert exploited.

So the pick rests heavily on the betting line and recent form, not on dominant underlying striking metrics. A score of 20 is a soft favorite.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed history on Landwehr. It correctly called his last two losses (Swanson and Charriere) and correctly picked against him versus Ige. But it was wrong backing him against Choi and wrong on Emmers and Onama. Notably, the model has twice underrated Landwehr's grit, picking Emmers and Onama to beat him, and Landwehr won both. That is a real caution flag: Landwehr has a habit of beating the model's expectations when written off, and here he is the underdog again.

There is no prediction history on Nallo at all. With only one UFC fight on his record, this is a low-confidence profile and the score of 20 reflects that uncertainty.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sides with Mandel Nallo, driven mainly by the betting line and his edge in recent form and power. His volume head hunting is a live threat against a Landwehr chin that has cracked three straight times. But understand this is a soft call at a score of 20. Landwehr has repeatedly beaten the model when counted out, Nallo's chin and cardio are untested past two minutes, and both men are coming off knockouts. Take Nallo to get the early finish, but know the first round is the whole fight. If it reaches deep water, Landwehr's pressure and clinch take over.

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Analysis: Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tanner Boser to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Tanner Boser: +205
Jhonata Diniz: -250

Tanner Boser's Breakdown

Boser is the kind of technical heavyweight you rarely see. A Shito-Ryu karate black belt, he moves lighter on his feet than most in the division and leans on timing over brawling. When he is on, that style shows up in clean sequences.

His signature weapons:

• Chopping leg kicks that set up power punches. Against Ovince Saint Preux at UFC Vegas 30, Boser opened Round 1 with hard inside low kicks and never let up. OSP had no answer, and his own corner barked "What are you waiting on? We gave that round away." Boser lands 1.55 leg kicks per minute, and against Daniel Spitz in his debut he chewed up those "spindly legs" across all three rounds for a shutout.
• The overhand left/right finishing combo. Against Philipe Lins, he timed an overhand right as Lins ducked in, then followed with a left and hammerfists for a Round 1 KO that Bisping compared to Dan Henderson at UFC 100. Against Raphael Pessoa, it was a jab to the body followed by an overhand left to the eye in Round 2.
• Feint-heavy pressure. Against Pessoa, Boser threw feints that Pessoa bit on repeatedly, backing him up and opening the finish.

Technical evolution: his best run came in 2020 when he cut weight to 235 and found KO power. But his recent form has gone the other way. He is 33 fights deep and slowing. His jab-and-clinch grind against Camur in 2023 was his last good night.

Tanner Boser's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin durability against heavy hands. This is the big one. In his last fight against Gokhan Saricam (April 2026), Boser was dropped and stopped in Round 2 by a straight right. He was badly hurt late in Round 1 too, surviving only by clinching. He was just KO'd in his most recent bout, and the same straight-right vulnerability could repeat here. Earlier, Ion Cutelaba "ran through him" in just over two minutes in 2023.
• Kick-catching into takedowns. Ilir Latifi caught Boser's kicks and planted him twice in 2021, racking up 6:38 of control for a split decision despite fighting with two fractured arms. His takedown defense ratio sits at a weak 0.4375.
• Passivity and failure to pull the trigger. Against Arlovski in 2020, Boser out-landed him 68-34 but leaned on leg kicks (46 of 68 strikes) and lost all three rounds because he waited instead of committing. He admitted "I blew it."

Jhonata Diniz's Breakdown

Diniz is a former GLORY kickboxer with a 22-7 kickboxing record and 15 knockouts. He is the betting favorite here at -250, and his hands are legitimate.

His signature weapons:

• Piston jab and range control. Against Alvin Hines at UFC 317, his jab swelled the eye, busted the nose, and set the tempo. He lands 2.73 head strikes per minute with 58% significant accuracy.
• Counter check hook off the opponent's entry. Against Hines, when Hines hunted the overhand right, Diniz "beat him to the punch with a check left hook" and timed clean counters all night.
• Uppercut-hook finishing flurries. Against Austen Lane, after getting dominated on the mat early, Diniz chopped the legs to force Lane up, then landed left uppercut, right uppercut, left hook for the Round 2 KO.

Technical evolution: Diniz is still a one-dimensional striker learning MMA on the job. His cardio also fades. Against Hines his "offense fell off a cliff" in Round 3.

Jhonata Diniz's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Catastrophic ground game. This is the glaring hole. Marcin Tybura swept him after Diniz took top position, then mauled him to a doctor's stoppage (153-27 strikes, 7+ minutes of control) at UFC 309. Mario Pinto repeated the exact formula in October 2025, taking him down easily in both rounds for a KO/TKO loss. Diniz was also just KO'd in his most recent fight.
• Takedown defense that barely exists. His takedown defense ratio is 0.4444, and anyone with a level change has walked through it.
• Round 3 cardio collapse. Against Hines he faded badly late. Against a pressure fighter who survives early, he becomes very hittable.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Here is where it gets interesting. Boser does not wrestle. His takedowns attempted per fight is basically zero. That removes Diniz's single greatest liability from the equation. Diniz does not have to worry about being mauled the way Tybura and Pinto mauled him, because Boser will almost certainly keep it standing.

That means this becomes a kickboxing match, and on paper that favors the larger, sharper, harder-hitting Diniz. He has the reach (79 inches vs 75), the better recent striking accuracy, and the heavier hands. Diniz's counter check hook off the entry is exactly the kind of shot that dropped Boser against Saricam, who finished him with the straight right as Boser came forward.

Boser's path is the leg kick. He landed 21 of 21 leg strikes against Saricam and systematically chopped OSP and Spitz. Diniz's cardio cracks late, and his legs took welting damage against Hines. If Boser can turn this into a high-volume, leg-kick-heavy grind and drag Diniz into Round 3, the technical edge shifts his way. The Arlovski fight is the warning though: Boser tends to coast and rely on kicks rather than finish.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Diniz's power and reach are the danger zone. This is where Saricam and Cutelaba got to Boser. If Diniz lands the counter hook or straight right as Boser blitzes, this ends early.
• Mid-fight: If Boser survives, his leg kicks start accumulating. He chopped OSP down by Round 2 and found the finish. Diniz's lead leg is a target that has been welted before.
• Championship rounds: Not applicable here, but Round 3 is Diniz's graveyard. His offense "fell off a cliff" against Hines. If Boser is still upright and busy, he can bank that round the way he did against Camur.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both men were KO'd in their most recent fights. Boser by Saricam, Diniz by Pinto. This is a matchup of two fighters coming off stoppage losses, and either chin can go.
• Boser's lack of wrestling neutralizes Diniz's one fatal flaw. Tybura and Pinto both needed takedowns. Boser does not shoot.
• Diniz's power and reach are the live threat early, mirroring how Saricam's straight right ended Boser.
• Boser's leg kicks and cardio are his lottery ticket, the same tools that broke down OSP and Spitz.
• Diniz fades in Round 3, which is Boser's best window.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on a razor-thin score of 0, essentially a coin flip that nudged toward Boser.

• Odds decreased the score by 8.0, correctly reflecting that Diniz is the -250 favorite and the betting market strongly backs him.
• striking_impact_differential increased the score by 6.0, the single biggest factor for Boser. His career impact differential (+21.8) dwarfs Diniz's negative numbers.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 3.0, again favoring Boser's historical striking impact.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, which is notable since both are at 0.33 recently, but Boser's broader profile edged it up.
• trueskill, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and striking_defense_percentage each added 1.0.

The striking differentials pulled Boser up enough to offset the heavy odds penalty, landing the model on him by the narrowest possible margin.

Past Model Performance

This is a caution flag. WolfTicketsAI has struggled badly with both men.

• On Boser, the model is 1-3 in its last four calls. It wrongly picked him against Saricam, Cutelaba, and Nascimento, only hitting on the Camur win. Every miss was a loss Boser suffered, including two KOs.
• On Diniz, the model is winless. It wrongly backed him against both Pinto and Tybura, both ending in stoppage losses, and even posted a confused call on the Williams fight.

The model has not correctly predicted a Diniz fight, and it has whiffed on Boser's recent KO losses. Take this pick with real skepticism.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Tanner Boser, and the logic is clean even at a score of 0: Boser does not wrestle, so Diniz's one catastrophic weakness never comes into play, and Boser's leg kicks plus Diniz's Round 3 fade give the Canadian a live path. But this is the thinnest of edges against the betting favorite, both men are coming off knockouts, and the model's track record on this pair is poor. Boser is the pick, but trust Diniz's power early and Boser's volume late. A dog fight in every sense.

Analysis: Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Chad Anheliger to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Chad Anheliger: +124
Steven Koslow: -148

Chad Anheliger's Breakdown

"The Monster" is a grizzled vet with 21 pro fights, and you can see that mileage in how he fights. Anheliger is a well-rounded pressure fighter who likes to grind opponents into the cage and manage pace. Against Charalampos Grigoriou in March 2024, he leaned on his clinch work and pace control to bank a clean unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28), dictating tempo and smothering Grigoriou's striking against the fence. That's his bread and butter: close the distance, work dirty in the clinch, and make you fight at his rhythm.

His signature weapons:

• Power right hand into cage pressure. Against Jesse Strader in 2022, Anheliger used the right hand to keep Strader backing up, then walked him down and finished with a third-round TKO at 3:33. When he can hurt you and chase, he closes the show.
• Clinch control and fence work. The Grigoriou fight was a clinic in neutralizing a striker by tying him up and leaning on him. This is his most reliable path to winning rounds.
• Takedown defense. Against Alatengheili he stuffed all four takedown attempts. That number matters a lot in this matchup given who he's facing next.

Technically, Anheliger has trended toward a decision-focused, grind-it-out approach in his recent UFC run rather than hunting the early finish. His striking volume is solid at 5.42 strikes landed per minute, but his recent striking impact differential has dipped into the negative (-2.69), which tells you he's been getting caught more in his latest outings.

Chad Anheliger's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Aggression leaves him open to counters. Against Alatengheili at UFC 279, Anheliger pressed forward constantly and got outstruck 49 to 39. His forward pressure can turn into eating clean counters when the other guy keeps composure. His recent striking defense sits at just 40.7 percent, which is a real hole.
• Submission exposure. He got tapped by Jose Johnson in November 2023. When his grappling goes south or he's chasing position, he can get caught. That's a flashing red light against a 10th Planet guy.
• Recent form dip. Anheliger has dropped two of his last three, including the unanimous decision loss to Cody Gibson in November 2024. His recent win percentage is just 33 percent, so the momentum is not with him coming in.

Steven Koslow's Breakdown

Koslow is the betting favorite at -148 and a 10th Planet jiu-jitsu specialist with a 6-1 record. His whole game is built around grappling. His stats scream it: 5.27 takedowns per fight on 9.49 attempts, and better than 1 submission per fight. He wants the fight on the mat, in his guard, hunting rubber guard chains.

His signature weapons:

• Rubber guard system. Against Cameron Saaiman, commentary tracked him flowing through mission control, chill dog, and invisible collar off his back. He's genuinely dangerous from bottom position, which is rare.
• Kimura from half guard. He showed a well-applied kimura against Saaiman, a real submission threat if Anheliger gets careless on top.
• Volume takedown entries. Nearly 10 takedown attempts per fight means he will keep shooting and chaining, looking to drag the fight to his world.

Steven Koslow's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Just one UFC fight, and he lost it. His lone Octagon appearance ended in a KO/TKO loss to Cameron Saaiman. Warning: he was recently KO'd, and against a pressure striker like Anheliger, that stoppage history can repeat. Also note, with so little UFC film, this prediction carries more uncertainty.
• No striking to speak of. His numbers are brutal: 0.77 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbing 2.67 head strikes per minute, and a striking impact differential of -85. If this fight stays standing, he gets picked apart.
• No ground-and-pound from top. Against Saaiman he reached dominant positions like the invisible collar and threw nothing. He fails to capitalize when on top, meaning even if he gets Anheliger down, he may not do enough with it, and Anheliger can work back up.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is the classic grappler-versus-pressure-striker chess match.

• Anheliger's path: His power right hand and cage pressure are exactly what torched Koslow before. Saaiman stopped Koslow with strikes, and Anheliger's finish of Jesse Strader shows he can walk a man down and close. More importantly, Anheliger's takedown defense is the key. He stuffed all four Alatengheili attempts, and Koslow needs takedowns to win. If Anheliger keeps it standing, this is a bad night for Koslow.
• Koslow's path: He has to get Anheliger down and keep him there. The danger for Chad is real given that Johnson submitted him in 2023. If Koslow drags this into rubber guard or latches a kimura from half guard, Anheliger's submission history becomes a live problem.
• The deciding factor: Koslow has shown no ability to strike and no ground-and-pound to force Anheliger to stay down. Chad's defensive wrestling plus his striking edge mirror how Saaiman neutralized Koslow's offense and punished him on the feet.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Koslow to shoot early and often. Anheliger should meet those entries with the frame-and-fence defense he used on Alatengheili, then punish the exits with the right hand.
• Mid-fight: If Koslow can't land clean takedowns, his gas tank and confidence erode fast, much like how he faded after the Saaiman exchanges. Anheliger's pace and clinch grind, the same formula he used on Grigoriou, start stacking rounds.
• Late: Anheliger's cardio is a selling point of his "Monster" nickname. If Koslow's takedown rate drops as he tires, Chad's pressure can lead to a late stoppage, echoing his third-round TKO of Strader. The one caveat: if Chad gets sloppy chasing the finish, a desperate Koslow scramble into a submission is the upset route.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking gap is enormous. Anheliger lands 3.1 significant strikes per minute; Koslow lands 0.77 and absorbs 2.67 to the head. On the feet it's not close.
• Takedown defense decides it. Anheliger stuffed all four Alatengheili takedowns. Koslow needs the mat and offers little else.
• Koslow's KO loss is a flashing warning. Saaiman stopped him with strikes. Anheliger hits hard, as Strader found out.
• Watch Anheliger's submission exposure. Johnson tapped him in 2023, and Koslow's rubber guard and kimura are legit. Chad must not get careless on top.
• Form caution cuts both ways. Anheliger is 1-2 in his last three, but Koslow's only UFC fight is a loss.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Anheliger at a strong score of 9, driven mostly by striking metrics:

• significant_striking_impact_differential added the most, +8, reflecting Anheliger's massive edge in impactful striking.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and striking_impact_differential each added +4.
• recent_striking_impact_differential and striking_defense_percentage each added +2.
• recent_significant_striking_output_differential added +1.
• On the other side, odds pulled the score down by 2 (Koslow is the favorite), recent_win_perc shaved off 2 (Chad's 33 percent recent run), and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight dropped it by 1, reflecting Koslow's heavy takedown volume.

The net picture: Anheliger's striking superiority overwhelms the knocks against him.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record on Anheliger, going 3-for-3 on his fights, correctly calling the Gibson, Johnson, and Alatengheili results. That's a vote of confidence in how the model reads his profile. There's no prediction history on Koslow, so his side carries more unknowns, which pairs with his thin one-fight UFC sample.

Conclusion

Styles make fights, and this one favors "The Monster." Koslow needs takedowns to win, and Anheliger's fence defense plus heavy hands are the exact tools that sank Koslow against Saaiman. Respect the submission risk from the 10th Planet guard, but on the feet this is lopsided. WolfTicketsAI is firmly on Chad Anheliger, and the smart read is Anheliger by stoppage or clear decision.

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Analysis: Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Melissa Croden to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Melissa Croden: -278
Chelsea Chandler: +225

Melissa Croden's Breakdown

Croden comes into this one as the fresher, more dangerous commodity at 135. She owns a 100 percent finishing history outside the Octagon and carried that power into the UFC with a TKO of Tainara Lisboa in her October 2025 debut. But the real story is how she wins when the first plan stalls. Look at her April 2026 war with Daria Zhelezniakova. She flat-out lost round one to Daria's footwork and counter timing, ate a bloody nose, then adjusted. By round two she got "fed up with the point-fighting," walked Daria down, and dragged her into the clinch where the fight belonged to her.

Her signature tools:

• Clinch-to-takedown chaining. Against Zhelezniakova in rounds 2 and 3, she bombarded with knees and elbows, threatened a standing arm-triangle, then tripped Daria down from the fence to finish with ground-and-pound. She landed 4 of 8 takedowns and racked up 5:12 of control.
• Pressure and cage cutting. When she commits to walking an opponent down, cardio shows up late. Zhelezniakova "fell apart late" and "couldn't maintain the same pace." Croden's pressure breaks movers who lack conditioning.
• Body kicks and kicking variety. Even in her loss to Luana Santos, she landed a heavy body kick that forced Santos to clinch to recover, plus leg kicks, front kicks, and high kicks into the guard.

Her technical evolution is clear. She was a pure finisher, then showed patience and a grinding decision win over Zhelezniakova, proving she can win ugly when the KO isn't there.

Melissa Croden's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Counter-strikers at range. In round one against Zhelezniakova, Croden had no answer for lateral movement and got timed repeatedly on the way in. She lacks head movement at distance. Chandler is a southpaw who throws hard overhand lefts, and if she picks her moments she can catch Croden coming forward.
• Judo-style throws and control. The Luana Santos loss in December 2025 is the blueprint against her. Santos tripped her down in all three rounds and piled up 9:21 of control to Croden's 0:44. Croden defended damage fine but could not stand back up or scramble. Chandler is a Cesar Gracie grappler who hunts top control and submissions, so this is a live concern.
• Chasing over cutting. She burns energy chasing rather than technically trapping opponents. Against someone who survives early, that effort can cost her.

Chelsea Chandler's Breakdown

Chandler is the Stockton bruiser out of Cesar Gracie, a purple belt with a brawling style and a grappling base built on top control and submissions. Her best nights come when she drags opponents down and smothers them. She submitted Priscila Cachoeira in June 2026, likely via armbar, and out-grappled Josiane Nunes in March 2024 with 2 takedowns and roughly 7 minutes of control.

Her signature tools:

• Takedowns into top control and ground-and-pound. Against Nunes she took her down, worked to the back, and banked the first two rounds before surviving a late surge. Her 60 percent career takedown accuracy is real when she can close.
• Clinch dirty boxing. Against Yana Santos she landed elbows, knees, and short shots inside, and she powered Nunes off the fence with her strength.
• Submission opportunism. She threatened a triangle and a kneebar against Norma Dumont, and finished Cachoeira. She stays active off her back.

Her evolution has been rocky. She has lost 3 of her last 4 and dropped weight class issues have followed her, including repeat weight misses at bantamweight.

Chelsea Chandler's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No head movement under pressure. This is the glaring one. Norma Dumont rocked her with a right hand in round one of their July 2023 fight and Chandler literally ran across the cage. She presses forward with hands low and gets countered clean. Croden's body kicks and clinch knees punish exactly this kind of flat-footed pressure.
• Recent KO loss. In April 2025 Joselyne Edwards knocked her out. That is a direct warning sign. Croden is a finisher with real power, and a fighter recently stopped is at risk of it happening again.
• Striking at range and leg kick defense. Yana Santos kicked her out of her stance repeatedly in August 2024 and out-landed her 94-56 on the feet. Santos dropped her with a right hand too. Croden's volume and kicking variety can win the distance exchanges, and Chandler's stuffed takedowns against Santos show her grappling isn't automatic.

Style Matchup Dynamics

The fight hinges on whether Chandler can replicate what Luana Santos did to Croden. That is the clearest path to a Chandler win. If she closes distance, body-locks Croden, and plants her against the fence, Croden has already shown she can't easily get up.

But the matchup leans the other way for a few reasons. Chandler struggles to complete takedowns against opponents who fight well in the clinch, and Croden is dangerous exactly there. Against Yana Santos, Chandler pursued clinches all night and "couldn't make them pay off." Croden's clinch is sharper than Santos' was, with knees, elbows, and a standing arm-triangle threat. So Chandler's primary route is contested by Croden's best phase.

On the feet, Croden's kicking game and forward pressure match terribly for Chandler. Dumont and Yana Santos both showed you beat Chandler by countering her flat pressure and chopping her legs. Croden throws leg kicks, front kicks, body kicks, and high kicks, and she walks opponents down. That is the exact profile that has cracked Chandler before.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Chandler to press forward and look for clinch entries, just as she did against Nunes and Santos. Croden may have a slow first round, as she did against Zhelezniakova, but her kicks should score and her clinch defense is better than Chandler's offense suggests.
• Mid-fight adjustments: This is where Croden historically takes over. She adjusted hard in round two against Zhelezniakova and swept the final two rounds. If Chandler can't get her down early, Croden's pressure and clinch work compound.
• Championship rounds (three-round fight): Cardio favors Croden. Chandler faded against Dumont and struggled to generate power late. Croden pushed a grinding pace through three rounds against Zhelezniakova. Late damage or a finish is on the table given Chandler's recent KO loss.

Analysis and Key Points

• Croden's clinch beats Chandler's takedown entries. Chandler couldn't convert clinches against Yana Santos. Croden fights better inside than Santos did.
• Chandler has no head movement. Dumont rocked her and she ran. Croden's kicks and knees exploit flat pressure.
• Recent KO warning on Chandler. Joselyne Edwards stopped her in April 2025. Croden is a finisher. Same could happen again.
• Croden's own grappling hole is real but contested. Luana Santos is the blueprint, but Chandler's takedowns aren't as reliable as Santos' judo.
• Cardio edge to Croden. Chandler fades, Croden grinds.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's 21 score leans heavily on a handful of features:

• Odds added the most, +14, reflecting Croden as a clear -278 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added +6, backing Croden's heavier striking output and impact.
• trueskill added +2, though note Chandler's Mu is actually higher, so the overall margin stays modest.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added +2 and striking_impact_differential and striking_defense_percentage each added +1.

Everything else landed at zero. The pick rests mostly on the betting line and Croden's striking impact edge, which is why the final confidence is a lean rather than a lock.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has never predicted Melissa Croden, so there's no track record to lean on there. On Chelsea Chandler the model is 2-2. It correctly called her losses to Yana Santos and Norma Dumont, but missed on Josiane Nunes and most recently on Priscila Cachoeira, where it picked against Chandler and she won by submission. That mixed record, especially the recent Cachoeira miss, is a reason to treat this modest 21 score with some caution.

Conclusion

The data and the tape point the same direction. Chandler's only clear path is dragging Croden down and holding her there the way Luana Santos did, but her takedowns stall against clinch-savvy opponents and her striking leaves her open to exactly the kind of pressure and kicks Croden brings. Add a recent knockout loss and fading cardio, and the risk piles up. WolfTicketsAI takes Melissa Croden, and the smart read is Croden by late stoppage or grinding decision.