Analysis: Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rodolfo Bellato to Win

Score: 17
Odds:
Paul Craig: 260
Rodolfo Bellato: -360

Paul Craig's Breakdown

Paul Craig enters this fight as the more experienced UFC veteran, but his recent form raises serious concerns. The Scottish submission specialist has lost his last three fights, including a unanimous decision to Bo Nickal, a TKO loss to Caio Borralho, and a submission defeat to Brendan Allen.

Craig's game revolves around his dangerous submission skills from bottom position. His signature triangle choke has claimed multiple victims, most notably against Magomed Ankalaev in 2018 when he secured a last-second triangle with just one second left in the fight. Craig's guard game is deceptively dangerous - he often appears vulnerable before suddenly throwing his legs up for submissions.

When striking, Craig relies on a kick-heavy approach to maintain distance. Against Johnny Walker, he demonstrated his ability to catch kicks and immediately transition to ground control, where he unleashed a barrage of hammerfists for the finish. His front kicks and body kicks serve primarily to create distance rather than do damage.

Craig's recent move to middleweight hasn't yielded success, and now he returns to light heavyweight where he previously found more consistent results. His ability to pull guard and threaten submissions remains his primary path to victory, though he's shown diminishing returns against higher-level competition.

Paul Craig's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Poor Defensive Striking: Craig's striking defense is his most glaring weakness. Against Caio Borralho, he repeatedly left his head exposed when throwing kicks, allowing Borralho to counter effectively. Craig fails to adequately protect his head while on one leg, creating predictable openings. In round two against Borralho, this vulnerability led to him getting caught with multiple clean shots.

2. Limited Offensive Wrestling: Craig struggles to secure takedowns against defensively sound opponents. Against Brendan Allen, his takedown attempts were telegraphed and easily defended, forcing him to resort to pulling guard. This creates a scoring deficit from the outset and has become increasingly predictable. In round one against Allen, Craig shot for multiple takedowns that were stuffed, leaving him in disadvantageous positions.

3. Cardio Issues: Craig noticeably fades in later rounds, as seen in his fight against Volkan Oezdemir. By round three, Craig's movements became labored and his takedown attempts grew increasingly desperate and telegraphed. This cardio deficit severely limits his effectiveness as fights progress and explains his tendency to either win early or lose decisions.

Rodolfo Bellato's Breakdown

Rodolfo Bellato comes into this fight with significant momentum despite a majority draw in his last outing against Jimmy Crute. The Brazilian prospect has shown impressive technical development in his brief UFC career, blending powerful striking with a solid grappling foundation.

Bellato's most dangerous weapon is his overhand right to knee combination that proved devastating against Ihor Potieria. This technique begins with Bellato stepping outside his opponent's lead foot, throwing a wide right hand that draws his opponent's guard upward, immediately followed by securing the double collar tie and driving a knee up the middle. Against Potieria, this sequence created the perfect opening for a fight-ending hook as Potieria's posture broke from the knee impact.

His clinch work has evolved substantially, incorporating effective Muay Thai elements with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu foundation. Bellato secures the double collar tie with technical precision and generates significant power in his knee strikes while maintaining positional control. This clinch dominance could prove particularly troublesome for Craig, who often struggles when pressed against the cage.

Bellato's footwork shows good balance and weight distribution, allowing for quick direction changes and explosive forward movement when pressuring opponents. His ability to cut off the cage rather than following directly was evident against Potieria and will be crucial against Craig's movement-heavy approach.

Rodolfo Bellato's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Head Position in Transitions: When attempting takedowns, Bellato occasionally compromises his head position. Against Jimmy Crute, he attempted a trip but missed the leg and fell backward, banging his head on the canvas. This vulnerability creates dangerous moments where he simultaneously achieves positional advantage while exposing himself to potential damage. Craig's opportunistic submission game could capitalize on these transitional lapses.

2. Defensive Shell Recovery: When hurt, Bellato tends to drop into a static defensive posture that lacks mobility. In the first round against Crute, he was dropped and fell in what was described as a "Jorge Masvidal planking celebration" position. This recovery mechanic could be exploited if Craig manages to land something significant, though Craig lacks the consistent power striking to reliably test this vulnerability.

3. Overcommitment to Power Shots: Bellato occasionally overcommits to his strikes, particularly his right hand, leaving him momentarily off-balance. This tendency to load up on power shots creates defensive lapses where his chin is exposed. Craig's front kicks could potentially catch Bellato during these moments of overcommitment, though Craig would need to time them perfectly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic with several key technical considerations. Craig's submission-hunting style from bottom position directly conflicts with Bellato's preference for maintaining top control and landing ground strikes.

Bellato's overhand right to knee combination could be particularly effective against Craig, who tends to raise his guard high when defending strikes, leaving his midsection vulnerable. Craig's tendency to reset with his chin high after combinations creates perfect openings for Bellato's power punches, especially as Craig begins to fatigue.

Craig's kick-catching ability, which he used effectively against Johnny Walker, could potentially neutralize some of Bellato's kicking offense. However, Bellato's more diverse striking arsenal and combination work present a more complex challenge than Walker's somewhat predictable approach.

The clinch battle will be crucial, as Bellato's double collar tie and knee strikes could inflict significant damage if Craig finds himself backed against the fence. Craig's underhook defense has proven vulnerable in previous fights, particularly against Volkan Oezdemir, where he struggled to prevent being controlled in clinch positions.

Craig's best path to victory lies in baiting Bellato into his guard and capitalizing on potential overcommitment. However, Bellato's grappling background suggests he'll be more disciplined than some of Craig's previous victims when engaging on the ground.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Bellato's superior striking and clinch work should establish dominance early. Craig typically starts fights with a kick-heavy approach to maintain distance, but Bellato's ability to cut off the cage and time counter strikes will likely neutralize this strategy. Craig's early takedown attempts will be the key moment - if stuffed (as is likely based on his 20% takedown success rate), he'll be forced into increasingly desperate attempts as the round progresses.

Mid-fight adjustments: As Craig begins to fatigue, expect him to pull guard more frequently rather than shooting for traditional takedowns. This is where the fight becomes most dangerous for Bellato, who must maintain disciplined posture and hand positioning to avoid Craig's submission threats. Based on Bellato's performance against Crute, he shows the fight IQ to make technical adjustments between rounds.

Championship rounds: If the fight reaches the later rounds, Craig's cardio issues will become increasingly apparent. His movements will become more labored and predictable, allowing Bellato to capitalize with his power striking. Craig's submission attempts will lose explosiveness, making them easier for Bellato to recognize and defend.

Analysis and Key Points

• Craig's submission threat remains real despite recent losses. His triangle choke against Magomed Ankalaev with one second left in the fight demonstrates his ability to capitalize on a single mistake.
• Bellato's clinch work presents a major problem for Craig, who has historically struggled against opponents who can control him against the cage.
• Craig's cardio issues will compound as the fight progresses, making his already low 20% takedown success rate even worse in later rounds.
• Bellato's overhand-to-knee combination directly exploits Craig's tendency to raise his guard high, leaving his midsection exposed.
• Craig's recent move back to light heavyweight after unsuccessful middleweight attempts could impact his conditioning and power.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favors Bellato based on several key factors:

• Recent takedowns attempted per fight increased the model's confidence by 3 points, highlighting Bellato's superior wrestling and Craig's reliance on pulling guard rather than effective takedowns.
• Odds decreased the prediction score by 15 points, suggesting the betting market may be overvaluing Bellato or undervaluing Craig's submission threat.
• Recent win percentage decreased the score by 2 points, reflecting Craig's three-fight losing streak.
• Striking defense percentage increased the score by 1 point, indicating Bellato's superior defensive striking compared to Craig's vulnerabilities.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Paul Craig fights. The model correctly predicted Craig's losses to Bo Nickal, Caio Borralho, Brendan Allen, and Johnny Walker. However, it incorrectly predicted Craig would lose to Andre Muniz (Craig won by KO/TKO) and incorrectly predicted Craig would beat Volkan Oezdemir and Nikita Krylov (Craig lost both).

For Bellato, the model has limited data with just one prediction - incorrectly picking him to defeat Jimmy Crute in a fight that ended in a majority draw.

This mixed prediction history suggests some caution, particularly given Craig's ability to pull off surprising submissions against the run of play.

Conclusion

Rodolfo Bellato should have the technical advantages to defeat Paul Craig across multiple phases of the fight. His superior striking, clinch work, and defensive awareness will likely neutralize Craig's submission-hunting approach. While Craig always presents a submission threat, his recent performances suggest diminishing returns against higher-level competition. Expect Bellato to maintain disciplined pressure, avoid Craig's guard traps, and either secure a late TKO or a comfortable decision victory.