Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Petroski

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Edmen Shahbazyan: -188
Andre Petroski: +146

Edmen Shahbazyan's Breakdown

Shahbazyan brings explosive first-round power and technical striking to this middleweight matchup. His recent performances show a fighter who's most dangerous in the opening minutes, particularly with his signature right cross-left hook combination that he used to devastating effect against Dylan Budka in February 2025. That fight showcased his ability to set up power shots with feints and jabs before delivering fight-ending combinations.

Shahbazyan's technical arsenal centers around three key weapons: his double jab to body kick sequence, his right straight to the body followed by head strikes, and his bounce-step entry that allows him to close distance explosively. Against Budka, he used this bounce-step to suddenly close distance before landing the right cross-left hook combination that ended the fight in the first round.

His recent win over AJ Dobson in March 2024 demonstrated improved patience and defensive awareness. Rather than rushing in recklessly, Shahbazyan established his jab effectively, using it to gauge distance before committing to power shots. This more measured approach paid dividends as he secured another first-round knockout.

When Shahbazyan is fresh, his hand speed and combination punching make him extremely dangerous. His body work has become increasingly effective, as seen against Dalcha Lungiambula in December 2022, where he used a body kick followed by a right hand to the body to set up his finishing sequence.

Edmen Shahbazyan's Technical Vulnerabilities

Shahbazyan's most glaring weakness is his cardio management. His explosive style demands significant energy output, and when he fails to secure an early finish, his technical execution deteriorates rapidly. Against Gerald Meerschaert in August 2024, this vulnerability was exposed when Shahbazyan overcommitted to combinations in the first round, leaving him exhausted and vulnerable to Meerschaert's methodical grappling pressure in round two, eventually leading to a submission loss.

Defensively, Shahbazyan relies too heavily on a high shell guard when pressured. Rather than incorporating lateral movement or level changes, he tends to plant his feet and cover up. This static defensive posture was exploited by Anthony Hernandez in May 2023, who used constant pressure to back Shahbazyan against the fence before securing a takedown. Once on the ground, Hernandez methodically advanced position until securing the third-round TKO.

When his initial blitz fails, Shahbazyan struggles to adapt. Against Jack Hermansson in May 2021, his inability to adjust his gameplan after failing to secure an early finish resulted in Hermansson gradually taking control through wrestling and ground control. By the third round, Shahbazyan's defensive reactions had slowed considerably, allowing Hermansson to dominate the final frame.

Andre Petroski's Breakdown

Petroski brings a wrestling-heavy approach with developing striking skills. His game revolves around securing takedowns and maintaining top control, where he can work for submissions or ground-and-pound. Against Rodolfo Vieira in February 2025, Petroski showed improved striking, using a stiff jab to maintain distance before timing a beautiful reactive double-leg takedown when Vieira pressed forward.

Petroski's primary weapons include his single-leg to body lock transitions, his chain wrestling when initial takedown attempts are defended, and his developing left hook counter. Against Dylan Budka in September 2024, he demonstrated excellent takedown entries after feinting with strikes, securing a dominant position before working methodically toward a submission.

His grappling credentials are impressive, as shown in his first-round anaconda choke victory over Nick Maximov in May 2022. When Maximov shot for a takedown with his head on the outside, Petroski immediately recognized the submission opportunity, transitioning from a guillotine threat to the fight-ending anaconda choke.

Petroski has shown improved striking in recent fights, particularly in his ability to use feints and jabs to set up his takedowns. Against Josh Fremd in July 2024, he effectively used feints and jab-cross combinations to set up double-leg takedowns, maintaining top control throughout the fight to secure a unanimous decision.

Andre Petroski's Technical Vulnerabilities

Petroski's striking defense remains a significant weakness. He tends to keep his chin high when initiating exchanges, leaving him vulnerable to counter hooks and uppercuts. This flaw was brutally exposed against Michel Pereira in October 2023, when Petroski stepped in without proper defensive awareness and walked directly into a clean counter punch that led to a first-round knockout.

When switching stances during exchanges, Petroski often leaves his head centered and chin exposed during the transition. Against Jacob Malkoun in March 2024, this vulnerability was exploited when he was caught with a blow while trying to close distance, leading to a second-round TKO loss.

Petroski's cardio management has also been problematic. His aggressive wrestling style demands significant energy expenditure, particularly in early rounds. Against Josh Fremd, his stamina issues at altitude became apparent, forcing him to rely heavily on clinching and takedown attempts to conserve energy in later rounds.

When pressured, Petroski tends to adopt a high guard defensive shell with minimal head movement. This creates opportunities for body attacks and allows opponents to control positioning in the clinch. His linear striking entries also lack effective feints and level changes, making his offensive entries predictable against technically sound strikers.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic with clear paths to victory for both men. Shahbazyan's explosive first-round power gives him a significant advantage early, while Petroski's wrestling and submission skills become more dangerous if the fight extends beyond the opening frame.

Shahbazyan's bounce-step entry could be particularly effective against Petroski's tendency to keep his chin high during exchanges. In the Dylan Budka fight, Shahbazyan used this technique to close distance suddenly before landing his fight-ending combination. Petroski's habit of leaving his head exposed during stance transitions creates a perfect target for Shahbazyan's right cross-left hook combination.

Conversely, Petroski's single-leg to body lock sequence could exploit Shahbazyan's cardio management issues. If Petroski can weather the early storm and force Shahbazyan to work defensively against takedowns, he could capitalize on Shahbazyan's diminishing output in later rounds. Against Meerschaert, Shahbazyan's defensive grappling deteriorated significantly once he began to fatigue.

Shahbazyan's body work could be particularly effective against Petroski's high guard defensive shell. The right straight to the body that Shahbazyan used effectively against Budka could force Petroski to lower his guard, creating openings for head strikes. However, these exchanges also create takedown opportunities for Petroski if Shahbazyan overcommits.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds heavily favor Shahbazyan, whose explosive combinations and body work are most effective when he's fresh. His first-round finishing ability was on full display against both Budka and Dobson, where he quickly established his jab before unleashing fight-ending combinations. Petroski will need to be extremely cautious during this phase, using lateral movement and feints to avoid Shahbazyan's power shots.

If the fight reaches the mid-rounds, the dynamic shifts significantly. Shahbazyan's output typically diminishes after the first round, as seen in his losses to Hernandez and Hermansson. Petroski's chain wrestling becomes more dangerous as Shahbazyan's defensive reactions slow. This is when Petroski's ability to transition between takedown attempts becomes most valuable.

Should the fight reach the championship rounds, Petroski would have a substantial advantage. Shahbazyan's technical execution deteriorates dramatically in later rounds, with his punches losing crispness and his footwork becoming flat. Petroski's methodical pressure and top control would likely dominate this phase, similar to how Hernandez controlled an exhausted Shahbazyan in the third round of their fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Shahbazyan's first-round power gives him a significant early advantage, particularly with his right cross-left hook combination that finished Budka
• Petroski's defensive vulnerabilities when switching stances create perfect openings for Shahbazyan's power combinations
• Cardio management will be crucial for Shahbazyan, who has struggled to maintain his technical effectiveness beyond the first round
• Petroski's chain wrestling becomes increasingly dangerous as the fight progresses and Shahbazyan's defensive reactions slow
• Body work could be a key factor for Shahbazyan, potentially forcing Petroski to lower his high guard and creating openings for head strikes

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Shahbazyan is influenced by several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 7.0, reflecting the betting market's confidence in Shahbazyan
• TrueSkill increased the prediction score by 2.0, suggesting Shahbazyan's overall skill level is rated higher
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the prediction score by 2.0, likely reflecting Shahbazyan's inconsistent recent record
• Striking Impact Differential metrics increased the prediction score, highlighting Shahbazyan's power advantage
• Reach increased the prediction score by 1.0, giving Shahbazyan a slight physical advantage

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has correctly predicted three of Shahbazyan's last five fights, including his recent first-round KO victories over Dylan Budka and AJ Dobson. However, the model incorrectly predicted Shahbazyan would defeat Gerald Meerschaert, who submitted him in the second round.

For Petroski, WolfTicketsAI has been less consistent, correctly predicting only three of his last seven fights. The model has struggled particularly with Petroski's wrestling-based victories, incorrectly predicting losses against Wellington Turman and Nick Maximov. This suggests some caution regarding the model's evaluation of grappling-heavy fighters like Petroski.

Conclusion

Shahbazyan's explosive first-round power and technical striking advantages make him the favorite in this matchup. While Petroski's wrestling presents a significant threat if the fight extends beyond the opening frame, Shahbazyan's improved patience and defensive awareness should allow him to land his signature combinations before Petroski can implement his grappling game. Look for Shahbazyan to exploit Petroski's defensive vulnerabilities during stance transitions, potentially securing another early knockout victory.