Analysis: Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raoni Barcelos to Win

Score: 10
Odds:
Cody Garbrandt: +138
Raoni Barcelos: -178

Cody Garbrandt's Breakdown

Garbrandt enters this fight looking to build on his recent momentum after going 2-1 in his last three fights. His signature style revolves around explosive boxing combinations delivered with exceptional hand speed. Against Brian Kelleher in December 2023, Garbrandt showcased his return to form with a devastating first-round knockout, landing a perfectly timed counter right hand that ended the fight instantly.

Garbrandt's technical arsenal centers around three key weapons:

1. Counter Right Hand: This remains his most lethal weapon. Against Kelleher, Garbrandt slipped outside the line of attack while simultaneously delivering a tight, compact right cross that landed flush. This same counter caught Raphael Assuncao in 2020, demonstrating its consistent effectiveness when Garbrandt maintains proper defensive positioning.

2. Switch Stance to Lead Hook: Garbrandt frequently switches stances to create angles and confusion, then explodes with a lead hook. This technique was particularly effective against Trevin Jones in March 2023, where he used it to control distance and set up his power shots.

3. Explosive Blitzing Combinations: When Garbrandt senses an opportunity, he unleashes rapid-fire combinations. Against Dominick Cruz in his championship-winning performance, he used these blitzes to repeatedly drop Cruz, showcasing his hand speed and power when he maintains disciplined footwork.

Garbrandt's recent technical evolution has shown a more measured approach compared to his losing streak. Against Jones, he demonstrated improved patience, picking his moments rather than forcing exchanges, which allowed him to secure a unanimous decision victory.

Cody Garbrandt's Technical Vulnerabilities

Despite his recent improvements, Garbrandt continues to show critical vulnerabilities:

1. Defensive Lapses When Pressured: When opponents apply consistent pressure, Garbrandt often reverts to a high guard with minimal head movement. Against Figueiredo in April 2024, this defensive posture left him vulnerable to body attacks and allowed Figueiredo to eventually secure a submission victory. Similarly, against Font in 2021, his inability to adjust to Font's jab-heavy approach led to a unanimous decision loss.

2. Chin Vulnerability After Exchanges: Garbrandt frequently resets with his chin high after throwing combinations. This habit has cost him dearly in the past, particularly in both Dillashaw fights where he was caught and knocked out while resetting. Even in his recent win against Jones, there were moments where this vulnerability was apparent.

3. Grappling Defense Deficiencies: As demonstrated in his recent loss to Figueiredo, Garbrandt struggles to defend against high-level grappling transitions. His inability to prevent Figueiredo from taking his back led directly to the submission loss, highlighting a significant gap in his defensive grappling.

Raoni Barcelos's Breakdown

Barcelos comes into this fight with a well-rounded skillset that blends technical striking with high-level grappling. His recent unanimous decision victory over Payton Talbott in January 2025 demonstrated his ability to neutralize younger, more athletic opponents through superior technique and fight IQ.

Barcelos's key weapons include:

1. Level Change Feints to Overhand Right: Against Talbott, Barcelos consistently threatened takedowns to draw defensive reactions, then capitalized with powerful overhand strikes when Talbott lowered his hands to defend. This same technique was effective against Trevin Jones in 2022, where he used it to control the pace of the fight.

2. Reactive Single-Leg Takedowns: Rather than forcing wrestling entries, Barcelos excels at catching kicks and punches to convert them into takedown opportunities. Against Cristian Quinonez in February 2024, he repeatedly used this technique to establish top control and eventually secured a submission victory.

3. Counter Left Hook Combinations: Barcelos demonstrates exceptional defensive awareness by taking punches on his high guard before immediately returning with devastating short-range left hooks. This counter-striking system troubled Quinonez and created openings for Barcelos's grappling entries.

Barcelos's technical evolution has shown a return to his wrestling foundations while maintaining improved striking. Against Talbott, he implemented a wrestling-heavy approach that neutralized his opponent's striking advantages, showing discipline and tactical awareness.

Raoni Barcelos's Technical Vulnerabilities

Despite his technical proficiency, Barcelos has shown several exploitable weaknesses:

1. Cardio Management Issues: Barcelos tends to fade in later rounds of high-paced contests. Against Victor Henry and Timur Valiev, his wrestling effectiveness diminished significantly in rounds 2 and 3 as his energy reserves depleted. This vulnerability could be critical against Garbrandt's explosive style.

2. Defensive Striking Gaps Against Faster Opponents: When facing high-volume strikers, Barcelos occasionally struggles with lateral movement and head position. Against Henry, this vulnerability was particularly exposed when Henry used angle changes after combinations, a technique Garbrandt could potentially replicate.

3. Vulnerability to Overhand Strikes: Barcelos has shown susceptibility to overhand strikes, particularly when resetting after exchanges. Umar Nurmagomedov exploited this vulnerability with a knockout in 2023, landing a short, compact left hand that caught Barcelos moving into range.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Garbrandt's explosive striking style presents both opportunities and challenges against Barcelos's methodical pressure approach. Garbrandt's hand speed advantage could allow him to land first in exchanges, particularly his counter right hand when Barcelos attempts to close distance. However, Barcelos's level-changing entries and reactive takedowns directly target Garbrandt's tendency to overcommit to strikes.

Garbrandt's specific vulnerability to grappling transitions aligns perfectly with Barcelos's strengths. In the Figueiredo fight, Garbrandt struggled to defend against back takes and submissions, which is precisely where Barcelos excels. Against Quinonez, Barcelos demonstrated his ability to transition from striking to takedowns seamlessly, a skill that could neutralize Garbrandt's striking advantage.

Conversely, Barcelos's tendency to slow down in later rounds could create openings for Garbrandt's explosive combinations. If Garbrandt can survive the early grappling threats and force Barcelos to work at a high pace, he could capitalize on Barcelos's diminishing cardio in rounds 2 and 3.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Barcelos to immediately target Garbrandt's grappling deficiencies by using feints to draw out Garbrandt's counter-striking tendencies, then shooting for takedowns. Barcelos will likely attempt to establish top control early, similar to his approach against Talbott. Garbrandt will need to maintain disciplined distance management and avoid overcommitting to strikes that could leave him vulnerable to takedowns.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Garbrandt can defend the early takedown attempts, Barcelos will likely shift to a striking-heavy approach with reactive takedowns. This is where Garbrandt's counter right hand could become a factor, particularly if Barcelos begins to slow down. Look for Garbrandt to increase his output if he senses Barcelos tiring, similar to how he adjusted against Jones.

Championship Rounds: Barcelos's cardio issues suggest Garbrandt could have a significant advantage if the fight reaches the later rounds. However, Garbrandt's own tendency to abandon technique for brawling when sensing an opportunity could leave him vulnerable to Barcelos's reactive takedowns, even if Barcelos is tiring.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Advantage: Barcelos holds a significant edge in wrestling and submission skills, having secured multiple submission victories in the UFC compared to Garbrandt's zero.
• Striking Speed vs. Technical Precision: Garbrandt's hand speed advantage is counterbalanced by Barcelos's more technically sound striking defense and counter-striking system.
• Recent Form: Garbrandt is 2-1 in his last three fights but was recently submitted by Figueiredo, highlighting his continued vulnerability to grappling. Barcelos is also 2-1 in his last three, with his most recent performance being a technical masterclass against a highly-touted prospect.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both fighters have shown defensive lapses when pressured, but Garbrandt's tendency to reset with his chin high presents a more exploitable target than Barcelos's general defensive positioning.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction is heavily influenced by several key factors:

• Odds decreased the model's score by 7.0, indicating that the betting market slightly favors Barcelos less than the model does
• Recent Win Percentage increased the prediction score by 3.0, reflecting Barcelos's solid recent performances
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the prediction score by 2.0, suggesting Barcelos might not be as active with takedown attempts as expected
• TrueSkill decreased the prediction score by 1.0, indicating Garbrandt's higher overall skill rating

The model sees Barcelos's striking impact differential and output differential as positive factors, suggesting he'll be able to outwork Garbrandt over three rounds.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model correctly predicted Garbrandt's wins against Brian Kelleher and Trevin Jones, as well as his loss to Figueiredo, showing good accuracy with his recent performances.

For Barcelos, the model correctly predicted his win against Cristian Quinonez and losses to Kyler Phillips and Umar Nurmagomedov. However, it incorrectly predicted Talbott to defeat Barcelos, underestimating Barcelos's ability to neutralize a younger, more athletic opponent through superior technique.

This history suggests the model has a good understanding of both fighters' strengths and weaknesses, though it may occasionally underestimate Barcelos's technical proficiency against athletic opponents.

Conclusion

Raoni Barcelos presents a stylistic nightmare for Cody Garbrandt. While Garbrandt possesses the hand speed and power to end the fight at any moment, Barcelos's technical approach directly targets Garbrandt's most significant vulnerabilities. Barcelos's ability to blend striking with takedowns will likely neutralize Garbrandt's striking advantage, while his submission skills threaten to exploit the same defensive grappling deficiencies that Figueiredo recently exposed.

Expect Barcelos to weather Garbrandt's early explosiveness, secure takedowns when Garbrandt overcommits to strikes, and control the fight through superior position and technical grappling. Unless Garbrandt can land a fight-changing counter right hand early, Barcelos's more complete skill set should carry him to victory.