Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Oumar Sy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Oumar Sy to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Alonzo Menifield: 370
Oumar Sy: -560

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Menifield enters this bout as a powerful light heavyweight with a reputation for explosive first-round finishes. His UFC career has been defined by devastating power punching, particularly his overhand right which has ended multiple fights. Against Azamat Murzakanov and Carlos Ulberg in 2024, Menifield struggled when unable to land his power shots early, ultimately suffering back-to-back KO/TKO losses.

Menifield's primary weapon is his right hand, which he typically sets up with a probing jab before unleashing with devastating power. This was particularly effective against Jimmy Crute in their 2023 bout, where he timed a perfect counter right hook that visibly stunned Crute before finishing him. Against Misha Cirkunov in 2022, Menifield demonstrated his ability to generate knockout power even in short exchanges, landing a perfectly timed power punch that found its mark as Cirkunov attempted to engage.

When his striking isn't finding the mark, Menifield has shown improved grappling skills. Against Askar Mozharov, he quickly identified his opponent's weakness in defensive grappling and secured takedowns followed by methodical ground-and-pound. His ability to adapt mid-fight was also evident against Fabio Cherant, where he countered a guillotine attempt with a Von Flue choke for the finish.

In his recent unanimous decision win over Dustin Jacoby, Menifield showed more patience, looking to time Jacoby's entries with counter hooks rather than rushing forward recklessly. This tactical evolution demonstrates his growing fight IQ, though his tendency to slow down in later rounds remains a concern.

Alonzo Menifield's Technical Vulnerabilities

Menifield's first major vulnerability is his linear offensive entries. Against Carlos Ulberg, his tendency to charge forward in straight lines proved disastrous. When he sees an opening, particularly after an opponent's lazy jab, he rushes forward without proper setups or angle changes. This makes his attacks predictable and left him vulnerable to Ulberg's counterstriking, resulting in a first-round KO loss.

His second vulnerability is his cardio management. Against William Knight, Menifield showed a tendency to slow significantly after the first round when unable to secure an early finish. Periods of clinch stalling appeared to be energy conservation tactics after explosive bursts. This was also evident against Dustin Jacoby, where Menifield had the "Rob Font problem" - landing effectively but unable to maintain consistent output throughout the entire fight.

Third, Menifield struggles with distance management against technical strikers. In his loss to Azamat Murzakanov, Menifield had difficulty closing distance effectively. When unable to get into range, he sometimes lunges forward with his power shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. This was particularly evident in round three when fatigue became apparent in his technique, with his punches losing snap as Murzakanov capitalized by increasing his volume.

When his primary gameplan fails, Menifield typically resorts to clinch work along the fence to recover and conserve energy. This was evident against both Knight and Jacoby, where he used the clinch as a tactical reset between explosive bursting attempts.

Oumar Sy's Breakdown

Oumar Sy comes into this fight with an undefeated 11-0 record, though he has limited UFC experience with just two fights in the promotion. His most recent victory came via unanimous decision over Da Woon Jung in September 2024, following a submission win over Tuco Tokkos in May.

Sy's striking arsenal revolves around his southpaw stance, with his left leg kick serving as his primary weapon. He throws this kick with significant power, targeting either the body or head of his opponents. What makes this technique particularly effective is how Sy leverages it to build subsequent attacks. Once opponents respect the kick threat, he chains into left straight punches, wide left hooks to the body, and left overhands.

In the grappling department, Sy has shown impressive skills, particularly in his submission victory over Tokkos. He effectively uses feints to mask his takedown attempts, often shooting for the legs after faking an overhand punch. Once on the ground, Sy specializes in rear-naked chokes, using body triangles to secure his opponents' backs. Against Tokkos, he transitioned smoothly from a takedown to taking his back and finishing with a rear-naked choke.

Sy's 83-inch reach (7 inches longer than Menifield's) gives him a significant advantage in maintaining distance. He uses this length effectively with his southpaw jab and left kicks, forcing opponents to cover distance to engage him. His takedown accuracy of 40% and 3.2 takedowns per fight demonstrate his ability to mix striking with grappling effectively.

Oumar Sy's Technical Vulnerabilities

Sy's primary technical vulnerability is his overdependence on the left leg kick. When opponents effectively counter this technique, his entire offensive system breaks down. This was evident against Da Woon Jung, who parried the left kick and immediately stepped into clinch range, neutralizing Sy's preferred striking distance and disrupting his rhythm.

After being taken down and controlled in the first round against Jung, Sy abandoned his primary weapon—the left kick—for nearly the entire second round. This fundamental adjustment severely limited his offensive options, allowing Jung to control the striking exchanges with jabbing and pulling tactics.

Secondly, Sy demonstrates significant defensive gaps when pressuring forward. He frequently leaves himself exposed when walking opponents down, showing a tendency to keep his head upright and centered while advancing. This creates opportunities for counter strikers like Menifield to land clean shots as he moves into range.

A third vulnerability is Sy's cardio management when engaging in grappling exchanges. His wrestling style is heavily strength-dependent rather than technically refined, causing him to expend significant energy during grappling sequences. This energy expenditure becomes problematic in later rounds, as demonstrated in his fight against Jung where his output noticeably decreased after the first round of grappling.

When his primary gameplan fails, Sy has shown an inability to adapt within the fight. Rather than finding ways to set up his left kick more effectively after Jung countered it once, he simply abandoned the technique altogether. This suggests a fighter who is currently more reliant on set patterns than in-fight problem-solving.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic power puncher versus technical striker dynamic. Menifield's explosive power and counter-striking ability will be tested against Sy's length and southpaw kick-heavy approach.

Sy's 7-inch reach advantage will be a significant factor, allowing him to maintain distance with his jab and left kicks. However, Menifield has shown the ability to close distance quickly and explode with power punches, as demonstrated against Jimmy Crute and Misha Cirkunov. If Menifield can time Sy's kicks and counter with his powerful right hand, he could find success similar to how Jung countered Sy's kicks.

Menifield's tendency to charge forward in straight lines could be problematic against Sy's length and kicking game. As seen in his loss to Carlos Ulberg, Menifield is vulnerable when opponents can maintain distance and counter his forward pressure. Sy's left kicks could be effective in keeping Menifield at bay and preventing him from establishing his power punching range.

In the grappling department, both fighters have shown competence, though with different approaches. Menifield's improved defensive grappling and ability to counter submission attempts (as seen against Cherant) could neutralize Sy's submission game. However, Sy's takedown entries and control from top position could be effective if he can avoid Menifield's power punches.

Fight Phase Analysis

In the early rounds, Sy's length and kicking game are likely to establish dominance. His ability to maintain distance with his 83-inch reach and southpaw left kicks will force Menifield to cover ground to land his power shots. Menifield typically starts aggressively looking for early knockouts, which could play into Sy's counter-striking game if he can time Menifield's entries.

As the fight progresses into the middle rounds, Menifield's cardio issues may become apparent if he's unable to secure an early finish. This is where Sy's takedown game could become more effective, as a tiring Menifield might be more vulnerable to takedowns. However, Sy has also shown cardio concerns in grappling exchanges, so if Menifield can force clinch situations, he might be able to wear down Sy along the fence.

In the later rounds, both fighters have shown tendencies to slow down, but Menifield's experience in three-round UFC fights could be an advantage. Sy has only gone the distance once in the UFC, and his output noticeably decreased after the first round of grappling against Jung. If Menifield can survive the early onslaught and force Sy into deep waters, he might find success with his power punching against a fatigued opponent.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach differential is crucial - Sy's 7-inch reach advantage will force Menifield to cover distance, potentially exposing him to counters as he moves in.
• First round dynamics will set the tone - Menifield typically looks for early finishes, while Sy relies on establishing his kicking game. Whoever imposes their gameplan early will have a significant advantage.
• Cardio concerns for both fighters - Both have shown tendencies to slow down, with Menifield struggling after explosive first rounds and Sy fading after grappling exchanges.
• Southpaw vs. orthodox matchup - Sy's southpaw stance creates an open stance matchup, potentially making it easier for Menifield to land his right hand while also allowing Sy's left kicks to land more effectively.
• Experience edge to Menifield - With 21 UFC fights compared to Sy's 2, Menifield has significantly more high-level experience, which could be a factor if the fight extends into later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Sy winning with a score of 25 is influenced by several key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 14.0, indicating the betting market favors Sy heavily
• Reach decreased the score by 4.0, highlighting Sy's significant 7-inch reach advantage
• Recent significant striking defense percentage increased the score by 4.0, suggesting Sy's defensive capabilities are valued by the model
• Striking defense percentage decreased the score by 2.0, indicating concerns about Menifield's defensive vulnerabilities
• Recent win percentage decreased the score by 2.0, reflecting Menifield's recent struggles with back-to-back losses

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Menifield's fights. The model correctly predicted Menifield's losses to Azamat Murzakanov and Carlos Ulberg in 2024, but incorrectly predicted Dustin Jacoby would defeat Menifield in December 2023. The model also correctly predicted Menifield's wins over Jimmy Crute and Misha Cirkunov.

For Oumar Sy, there is no prediction history available due to his limited UFC experience, which adds some uncertainty to the prediction.

The model's recent success in predicting Menifield's losses to higher-level opponents suggests it has a good understanding of his limitations against technically sound fighters, which lends credibility to its prediction of Sy winning this matchup.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Oumar Sy to defeat Alonzo Menifield in this light heavyweight clash. Sy's significant reach advantage, southpaw stance, and kick-heavy approach should allow him to control distance and neutralize Menifield's power punching. While Menifield possesses the experience edge and one-punch knockout power, his linear entries and cardio concerns make him vulnerable against a long, technical striker like Sy. Expect Sy to use his left kicks to maintain distance early, potentially mixing in takedowns as the fight progresses to secure a decision victory or late stoppage.