Analysis: Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mason Jones to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Jeremy Stephens: +400
Mason Jones: -620

Jeremy Stephens's Breakdown

Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens enters this bout as a veteran with serious mileage on his frame. With a 28-19-1 record, Stephens hasn't tasted victory since his 2018 knockout of Josh Emmett. His last five fights have all ended in defeat, including brutal KO losses to Calvin Kattar and Jose Aldo.

Stephens built his reputation on devastating power and his signature "slip and rip" technique, where he evades strikes before countering with fight-ending shots. Against Dooho Choi in 2018, this approach worked perfectly as he slipped past Choi's aggressive attacks and landed devastating counters for the TKO finish.

However, Stephens has consistently struggled against technical strikers and strong grapplers. When Zabit Magomedsharipov faced him in 2019, Stephens couldn't handle the grappling pressure, allowing Zabit to dictate the pace. Similarly, against Calvin Kattar, Stephens' aggressive style left him open to precise counters that led to his knockout loss.

Stephens' takedown defense (52.7%) has been exploitable, with opponents like Frankie Edgar successfully implementing wrestling-heavy gameplans against him. His tendency to overcommit to power shots often leaves him vulnerable to counters and takedowns, a weakness Mason Jones will likely target.

Mason Jones's Breakdown

Mason Jones brings a perfect style matchup against Stephens. Though only 3 fights into his UFC career with a 1-1-1 record, "The Dragon" holds black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Judo, and Kickboxing, making him dangerous everywhere.

Jones's striking output is remarkable, landing 7.33 strikes per minute compared to Stephens' 4.38. Against David Onama, Jones demonstrated his ability to maintain a high pace while mixing striking with well-timed takedowns, eventually securing a unanimous decision victory.

What makes Jones particularly dangerous is his grappling. He averages 3.15 takedowns per fight with 45.8% accuracy, significantly higher than Stephens' 1.15 takedowns per fight. In his fight against Mike Davis, despite losing the decision, Jones showed his willingness to engage in scrambles and look for submissions, areas where Stephens has historically struggled.

Jones also brings a 3-inch reach advantage (74" vs 71"), which he'll likely use to maintain distance and pick apart Stephens from range before changing levels for takedowns. His clinch work, particularly evident against Alan Patrick before their fight ended in a no-contest, could neutralize Stephens' power punching.

Analysis and Key Points

• Age and mileage gap: At 36, Stephens has absorbed significant damage throughout his 48-fight career, while Jones at 27 is still in his physical prime.

• Striking differential: Jones lands 7.33 strikes per minute vs Stephens' 4.38, suggesting Jones will outwork the veteran on the feet.

• Grappling advantage: Jones' takedown rate (3.15 per fight) dwarfs Stephens' (1.15), creating a clear path to victory through wrestling.

• Reach advantage: Jones' 3-inch reach edge will help him maintain distance and avoid Stephens' power shots.

• Stephens' defensive liabilities: His 48.9% striking defense leaves openings for Jones' high-volume attack.

• Recent form: Stephens has lost his last 5 fights, including 2 by knockout, while Jones has shown improvement even in defeat.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Jones is driven by several key factors:

• Odds decreased the model's score by 18.0, showing the model is actually less confident than the betting market
• TrueSkill decreased the prediction score by 2.0, reflecting Stephens' higher career-long rating
• Recent win percentage decreased the score by 2.0, acknowledging Stephens' recent struggles
• Striking defense percentage increased the score by 1.0, highlighting Jones' advantage in this area
• Recent significant striking defense percentage increased the score by 1.0, showing Jones' superior defensive skills

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has only predicted one previous Mason Jones fight, incorrectly picking him to defeat Ludovit Klein. The model has no prediction history for Jeremy Stephens. This limited track record suggests some caution, but the statistical advantages for Jones remain compelling.

Conclusion

Despite Stephens' experience and knockout power, Mason Jones has the technical advantages to control this fight. His superior volume striking, grappling credentials, and youth give him multiple paths to victory. Expect Jones to weather early storms from Stephens, establish his jab behind his reach advantage, and mix in takedowns to neutralize Stephens' power. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Mason Jones victory is well-supported by the technical matchup and recent form of both fighters.