Analysis: Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cory Sandhagen to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Cory Sandhagen: -520
Deiveson Figueiredo: +350

Cory Sandhagen's Breakdown

Sandhagen brings a technical striking masterclass to this bantamweight clash. His fluid footwork and stance-switching have been hallmarks of his success, creating angles that frustrate opponents. Against Rob Font and Marlon Vera, Sandhagen demonstrated exceptional distance management, using his 70" reach to pick apart opponents from range while mixing in timely takedowns.

What makes Sandhagen dangerous is his ability to adapt mid-fight. Against Song Yadong, he strategically employed an upward elbow that opened a fight-ending cut when his initial approach wasn't working. This adaptability was also evident against Vera, where he brilliantly exploited Vera's tendency to back himself against the fence, landing punishing body shots and well-timed flying knees.

Sandhagen's wrestling has evolved significantly since his loss to Sterling. Against Nurmagomedov, he showcased impressive defensive grappling, using hand-peeling techniques and shoulder rolls to escape back control repeatedly. His punch-to-wrestling transitions have become a key weapon, attempting 12 takedowns against Song Yadong and using these attempts to set up his striking.

However, Sandhagen has shown vulnerability to counter-strikers who can match his pace. His split decision losses to Dillashaw and Yan came when opponents effectively countered his movements with precise timing. Against Figueiredo's power, Sandhagen will need to maintain his disciplined footwork to avoid getting caught.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

The former two-time flyweight champion brings explosive power and dangerous submission skills to bantamweight. Figueiredo has looked rejuvenated since moving up, showing improved cardio and maintaining his knockout power against larger opponents.

Against Rob Font, Figueiredo showcased his evolved wrestling arsenal, using trap hook dumps, single legs with pipe runs, and an impressive technique combining foot sweeps with knee taps. His counter-striking remains lethal - he immediately neutralized Font's jab with a powerful cross counter, forcing Font to abandon one of his primary weapons.

Figueiredo's submission game is opportunistic and dangerous. Against Cody Garbrandt, he demonstrated his black belt BJJ skills with a submission victory. His guillotine choke has become a signature weapon, which he's used effectively to finish fights or control positions.

However, Figueiredo has technical limitations that Sandhagen could exploit. As noted in his fights with Brandon Moreno, Figueiredo "has never slipped or blocked a left hook in his life" - a vulnerability that cost him in their fourth fight. He also tends to hold submission attempts too long, creating opportunities for reversals and escapes.

Against Marlon Vera, Figueiredo showed improved punch-to-wrestling transitions, consistently throwing punches, pulling back from counters, and shooting for takedowns. This could be effective against Sandhagen's movement-heavy style.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach Advantage: Sandhagen's 70" reach vs Figueiredo's 68" gives him a critical edge in maintaining distance.
• Technical Striking vs Power Striking: Sandhagen's volume and precision against Figueiredo's explosive counters.
• Wrestling Evolution: Both fighters have improved their wrestling significantly - Sandhagen defensively, Figueiredo offensively.
• Submission Threats: Figueiredo's guillotine choke poses a serious threat if Sandhagen shoots without proper setups.
• Cardio Factors: Sandhagen has proven five-round endurance, while Figueiredo has shown improved gas tank at bantamweight.
• Counter Vulnerability: Both fighters have been caught by well-timed counters - Sandhagen by Yan's spinning back fist, Figueiredo by Moreno's left hooks.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Sandhagen is driven by several key statistical factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 20.0, reflecting the significant betting line favoring Sandhagen
• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 5.0, highlighting Sandhagen's ability to land the more damaging strikes
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential boosted the score by 2.0, showing Sandhagen's recent striking effectiveness
• Recent Win Percentage added 2.0 to the score, with Sandhagen winning 67% of his recent fights
• Striking Impact Differential and Striking Defense Percentage each contributed 1.0 to the prediction

These metrics paint a picture of Sandhagen as the more technically sound striker with better defensive skills, giving him the edge in what should be a primarily striking battle.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model correctly predicted Sandhagen's victories over Rob Font and Song Yadong, but incorrectly picked Marlon Vera over Sandhagen. Most recently, it correctly predicted Nurmagomedov to defeat Sandhagen.

For Figueiredo, the model has been less reliable. It correctly predicted his win over Garbrandt and Yan's victory over him, but incorrectly picked Marlon Vera to beat Figueiredo and Rob Font to defeat Figueiredo. The model also incorrectly predicted both of Figueiredo's recent fights with Brandon Moreno.

This inconsistent prediction history suggests some caution, particularly regarding Figueiredo's performances at bantamweight where the model has struggled to accurately gauge his effectiveness.

Conclusion

Sandhagen's technical striking, reach advantage, and proven ability to adapt mid-fight give him clear pathways to victory. While Figueiredo brings dangerous power and submission threats, Sandhagen's improved defensive wrestling and superior footwork should allow him to control distance and accumulate damage over time.

Expect Sandhagen to use his jab, stance-switching, and lateral movement to frustrate Figueiredo, mixing in takedown attempts to keep him guessing. Figueiredo will hunt for the big counter shot or submission opportunity, but Sandhagen's disciplined approach should prevail. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Sandhagen victory is well-supported by the statistical advantages he brings to this matchup.