Analysis: Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Melquizael Costa to Win

Score: 6
Odds:
Melquizael Costa: -113
Morgan Charriere: -113

Melquizael Costa's Breakdown

Costa enters this fight riding a four-fight winning streak that has transformed him from a guy who got finished by Thiago Moises into a legitimate featherweight contender. The Brazilian southpaw has developed into a well-rounded threat with dangerous jiu-jitsu and increasingly polished striking.

Signature Techniques:

1. Osoto Gari (Outside Leg Reap): Costa showed gorgeous judo in Round 3 against Julian Erosa. He walked up, planted his lead foot outside Erosa's, slapped him in the head as a distraction, and swept him so smoothly it looked like Erosa pulled guard. This traditional throw gives Costa a reliable way to put opponents on the mat when clinch battles develop.

2. Guillotine from Butterfly Guard: Against Andre Fili, Costa demonstrated elite patience with this choke. When Fili timed a body kick and secured a takedown into body lock position, Costa wrapped the neck slowly, methodically removing space until Fili had to tap before it even looked like Costa was squeezing. This submission threat makes opponents pay for sloppy entries.

3. Body Kicks from Southpaw: Costa's left body kicks are his primary striking weapon. He throws them with volume and they accumulate damage. Against Fili, these kicks established his offensive rhythm before the grappling exchanges began.

Technical Evolution:

Costa's defensive improvements have been dramatic. Against Erosa, he spent most of the fight with his back on the cage but maintained crisp striking and solid defense throughout. His kicks looked great, punches stayed clean, and he used judo threats to escape pressure situations. The guy who got choked mostly unconscious by Steve Garcia in 2023 now shows composure under fire.

Melquizael Costa's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Against Timing: Costa's body kicks can be parried and countered into takedowns. Fili demonstrated this perfectly—he timed one of those kicks, parried it across, ducked in on the hips, and secured the takedown. Against Christian Rodriguez, Costa gave up six takedowns and over six minutes of control time. His 72% takedown defense ratio looks decent on paper, but skilled wrestlers who can time his kicks will find entries.

2. Ring Generalship: Costa consistently ends up fighting with his back against the cage. Against Erosa, he spent the entire fight in this position. Against Rodriguez, he repeatedly found himself backed up. While his defense from this position has improved, it forces him into a reactive game and limits his offensive output at range.

3. Late-Round Conditioning: In the Rodriguez fight, exhaustion set in during Round 3. Costa stayed down after a late takedown and couldn't get back to his feet. Rodriguez dominated the final minutes with ground control. This came just 35 days after the Fili fight, but it exposed a potential gas tank issue when fights become grappling-heavy.

Morgan Charriere's Breakdown

The Frenchman is a technically clean striker who just secured a third-round stoppage over Nate Landwehr in his most recent outing. Charriere brings legitimate kickboxing credentials from Cage Warriors and has shown surprising grappling competence at the UFC level.

Signature Techniques:

1. Calf Kicks: Charriere uses these to establish range and damage the lead leg early. Against Landwehr, his calf kicks were effective enough that Landwehr had to adjust his entries and start using false steps to avoid them.

2. Counter Left Hook from Clinch Exit: Against Gabriel Miranda, Charriere demonstrated elite transitional awareness. When Miranda attempted an uchi mata with the overhook, Charriere used a limp arm to escape the whizzer, and as Miranda completed his spin, Charriere landed a short left hook that caught him completely blind. This timing-based knockout showed his ability to capitalize on mode changes.

3. Ball-of-Foot Body Kick: Against Nathaniel Wood, Charriere threw body kicks using the ball of the foot rather than the shin, creating a more piercing impact. These accumulated damage even in a losing effort.

Technical Evolution:

Charriere's grappling has improved beyond expectations for a kickboxer. Against Chepe Mariscal, a dedicated wrestler, his wrestling looked surprisingly competent. He can scramble and defend takedowns well enough to stay competitive against grapplers, even if he can't dominate them.

Morgan Charriere's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Output Under Pressure: When faced with relentless forward movement, Charriere tends to throw less and shell up defensively. Against Landwehr, he was "the victim of not throwing enough" in the second round despite landing harder when he did engage. Pressure fighters who stay in his face make him freeze up and reduce his output significantly.

2. Susceptibility to False Entries/Feints: Charriere gets drawn into throwing kicks at air when opponents use false entries. Against Landwehr, after Charriere landed good calf kicks, Landwehr started doing false entries—stepping in and pushing back off—which made Charriere swing and miss repeatedly. This wastes energy and creates openings.

3. Lack of Knockout Power: Charriere is not a single-shot knockout artist. Against Wood, he lost a decision partly because "he had no urgency" when behind on the scorecards. In the final 10 seconds of Round 3, he "runs at Nathaniel Wood flapping but doesn't throw anything meaningful." When he needs to turn a fight around, he lacks the power to do it with one shot.

4. Takedown Defense: Charriere's 20% takedown defense ratio is alarming. While he can scramble and recover, he struggles to stop initial entries. Against a submission specialist like Costa, getting taken down repeatedly could be catastrophic.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic with some interesting wrinkles. Costa's southpaw body kicks could be problematic for Charriere, but Charriere has shown the ability to handle body work—he absorbed Wood's attacks and kept fighting. The real question is what happens when Costa closes distance.

Costa's weapons against Charriere's tendencies:

Costa's judo and clinch work could exploit Charriere's poor takedown defense. If Costa can get an underhook and threaten throws like he did against Erosa, Charriere may struggle to disengage. More importantly, Costa's guillotine threat makes Charriere's wrestling entries dangerous. If Charriere shoots without proper head position—like Fili did—he could find himself in a choke.

Charriere's weapons against Costa's tendencies:

Charriere's calf kicks could target Costa's lead leg and limit his mobility. His counter left hook during transitions could catch Costa when exiting clinch exchanges. However, Charriere's tendency to reduce output under pressure is concerning against a fighter like Costa who will constantly threaten grappling.

Historical parallels:

The Rodriguez fight showed Costa can handle a dedicated wrestler who takes him down repeatedly. He used reversals and sweeps to stay competitive. Charriere's grappling isn't at Rodriguez's level, and Costa's submission threat is far more dangerous than anything Rodriguez faced.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Expect Costa to establish his body kicks from southpaw while looking for clinch entries. Charriere will likely try to keep distance with calf kicks and jabs. If Costa can get to the cage and threaten judo, we could see early grappling exchanges. Charriere's output may be high initially, but Costa's pressure could reduce it as the round progresses.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Costa secures takedowns, Charriere will need to scramble effectively. Costa's patience with submissions means he won't rush—he'll methodically remove space like he did against Fili. If Charriere can stay standing, his counter-striking could find openings when Costa exits clinch exchanges.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

This is a three-rounder, but conditioning matters. Costa showed fatigue against Rodriguez in Round 3, though that came on short notice. Charriere's cardio has been questioned when pressured. Whoever can maintain output late likely takes a decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Costa's four-fight streak includes quality wins over Julian Erosa, Christian Rodriguez, and Andre Fili. He's beaten finishers and grapplers alike.

• Charriere's 20% takedown defense is a massive red flag against a fighter with Costa's judo and submission game. Costa's 38% takedown accuracy isn't elite, but he attempts over 5 per fight.

• Costa's 2-inch reach advantage (71" vs 69") helps him establish his southpaw kicks from range.

• Charriere's output issues under pressure could be exploited by Costa's constant grappling threats. Against Landwehr, Charriere needed his corner to fire him up before committing to output in Round 3.

• Costa's guillotine is a legitimate fight-ender. Charriere's wrestling entries could expose his neck if he's not careful.

• Charriere lost to Nathaniel Wood by unanimous decision in his last fight before the Landwehr win. He's 2-2 in his last four UFC bouts.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Costa comes from several statistical advantages:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0—the betting line sees this as a pick'em, but the model finds value on Costa.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 4.0—Costa lands with more meaningful damage relative to what he absorbs.
• TrueSkill increased the score by 1.0—Costa's rating reflects his recent winning streak against quality opposition.
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 1.0—Costa is 4-0 in his last four, while Charriere is 2-2.
• Win Streak Difference increased the score by 1.0—Costa's momentum matters.
• Reach increased the score by 1.0—that 2-inch advantage helps Costa's kicking game.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0—Costa defends strikes more effectively.

The only negative factor was Recent Striking Impact Differential decreasing the score by 1.0, suggesting Charriere's recent striking exchanges have been slightly more favorable.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Costa: The model correctly predicted his wins over Erosa (0.66 score) and Lingo (0.28 score). However, it incorrectly picked against him twice—favoring Rodriguez (0.57) and Fili (0.51) when Costa won both. It also incorrectly predicted Costa to beat Steve Garcia when he got finished. The model has underestimated Costa's ability to pull upsets.

Charriere: The model correctly predicted his wins over Landwehr (0.65) and Miranda (0.79). It incorrectly favored him against Wood (0.55) and Mariscal (0.61) when he lost both. The model tends to overvalue Charriere in competitive matchups.

This history suggests caution—the model has been wrong about Costa as an underdog (when he won) and wrong about Charriere as a favorite (when he lost). Here, Costa is the slight favorite in a pick'em line.

Conclusion

Costa's grappling advantage should be the deciding factor. Charriere's 20% takedown defense against a fighter who attempts over 5 takedowns per fight and has elite jiu-jitsu is a recipe for disaster. Costa doesn't need to finish—he can grind out a decision using clinch work, judo throws, and top control. But if Charriere gives up his neck on a wrestling entry, this fight ends early. WolfTicketsAI has Costa winning, and the Brazilian's well-rounded game and recent momentum support that pick.