Analysis: Joanderson Brito vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joanderson Brito to Win

Score: 14
Odds:
Joanderson Brito: -300
Melsik Baghdasaryan: +240

Joanderson Brito's Breakdown

Brito enters this fight off back-to-back losses—a split decision to William Gomis and a unanimous decision to Pat Sabatini. That's a concerning trend for a guy who was once considered a dangerous finisher. But context matters here.

Signature Techniques:

1. Calf Kicks as Primary Weapon: Against Jack Shore, Brito built his entire offense around relentless calf kicks while backing Shore to the fence. The volume and placement created a tactical dilemma—Shore couldn't check without risking combinations, and eating the kicks meant accumulating damage. The doctor's stoppage came from shin damage caused by checking those very kicks.

2. Explosive Early Pressure: Brito's first-round finishing ability is well-documented. Against Andre Fili, he hammered him with an overhand right off the bat while Fili was trying to pull-counter. The speed and explosiveness overwhelmed Fili before he could establish rhythm. Against Westin Wilson, he punched his way out of a deep knee bar to secure a first-round TKO.

3. Ninja Choke from Scrambles: Against Jonathan Pearce, Brito caught a ninja choke when Pearce overcommitted to keeping him down after a cage stand-up. This shows submission awareness from disadvantaged positions—a dangerous wrinkle for opponents who think they can wrestle him.

Technical Evolution:

Brito's recent fights show he's become more of a pressure fighter who uses cage-cutting and clinch underhooks to control position. Against Shore, every time Shore entered on a clinch, Brito dug underhooks and turned him around. His grappling awareness has improved, though his cardio remains a question mark past the first four minutes.

Joanderson Brito's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Off Kicks: Against Sabatini, Brito's body kicks became a liability. Every time he committed to a kick, Sabatini stepped in and took him down easily. This happened in rounds 1, 2, and 3. Brito's recent takedown defense ratio sits at just 53.75%—a significant drop from his career average of 77.78%.

2. Tactical Discipline When Frustrated: In round 3 against Sabatini, Brito came out swinging wildly knowing Sabatini wanted to grapple. He got immediately taken down. When his primary gameplan fails, Brito tends to abandon strategy and fight like a "meathead," as the analysis noted.

3. Bottom Position Recovery: Once taken down, Brito struggles to escape. Sabatini played top half the entire fight. Brito's guillotine attempts from bottom haven't worked against high-level grapplers—he jumped on a guillotine against Sabatini and got nowhere because "against most high level fighters it's very hard to guillotine them."

Melsik Baghdasaryan's Breakdown

Baghdasaryan is coming off a brutal KO loss to Jean Silva in February 2025. That's a significant red flag. Silva caught him with counter work, exploiting Baghdasaryan's predictable kicking entries.

Signature Techniques:

1. Left Kick (Southpaw): This is essentially Baghdasaryan's entire offense. Against Collin Anglin, he threw kicks to the leg, head, and body in rapid succession, keeping Anglin guessing. The finishing head kick against Anglin came after he softened him up with crisp left hands. Against Bruno Souza, his calf kicks created visible bruising and forced Souza to attempt desperation takedowns.

2. Counter Left Hand: From his southpaw stance, Baghdasaryan lands heavy counter lefts when opponents close distance. Against Souza, he landed hard counter left hands two minutes into round one after eating a low kick.

3. Multi-Level Kicking Attack: His kickboxing background shows in his ability to attack all three levels. Against Anglin, the rapid leg-head-body combination immediately established dominance.

Technical Evolution:

Baghdasaryan's recent performances suggest he hasn't diversified beyond his left kick. The Jean Silva fight exposed this—Silva, a "southpaw killer," recognized that Baghdasaryan's game revolves almost entirely around that one weapon and timed counters accordingly.

Melsik Baghdasaryan's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. One-Dimensional Offense: The transcript analysis is blunt: "all Baghdasaryan really has is the left kick." Against Silva, this predictability got him knocked out. Opponents who can defend kicks and counter have a clear path to victory.

2. Susceptibility to Counter Left Hook: As a southpaw, Baghdasaryan is vulnerable to the counter left hook that sets up the right straight. Silva exploited this exact dynamic. Brito, as an orthodox pressure fighter, will have opportunities to land this counter when Baghdasaryan commits to kicks.

3. Takedown Defense: Baghdasaryan's takedown defense ratio sits at just 40% career and 32.2% recently. Against Josh Culibao, he got submitted in round 2 after being taken down. He doesn't threaten off his back and struggles to return to his feet against competent grapplers.

4. Cardio Decline: Against Souza, Baghdasaryan's output dropped significantly in round 3, allowing Souza to have his best stretch of the fight. Against Anglin, he admitted post-fight he didn't feel like himself and appeared to tire in round 1.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker-vs-striker matchup on paper, but the technical details favor Brito.

Brito's Weapons Against Baghdasaryan's Tendencies:

Brito's pressure fighting and cage-cutting ability should neutralize Baghdasaryan's preference for kicking range. When Brito backs opponents to the fence—as he did against Shore—he can unload calf kicks while threatening combinations. Baghdasaryan's 40% takedown defense means Brito can mix in takedowns to keep him guessing.

Brito's underhook work in the clinch could be decisive. Baghdasaryan struggled in clinch exchanges against Anglin, and Brito's ability to dig underhooks and turn opponents will deny Baghdasaryan the space he needs for his kicks.

Baghdasaryan's Weapons Against Brito's Tendencies:

Baghdasaryan's counter left hand could catch Brito when he comes forward recklessly. Brito's tendency to abandon tactical discipline when frustrated—as seen in round 3 against Sabatini—creates openings for a counter-striker.

However, Baghdasaryan's one-dimensional offense limits his options. If Brito checks the left kicks or times takedowns off them (similar to what Sabatini did), Baghdasaryan has shown no Plan B.

Historical Parallel:

This matchup resembles Brito's fight against Shore—a pressure fighter using calf kicks and clinch work against an opponent who wants to stay at range. Brito dominated that fight until the doctor's stoppage.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Brito's explosive first-round danger is well-documented. His speed and power in the opening minutes overwhelmed Fili and Wilson. Baghdasaryan's cardio issues mean he needs to survive Brito's early pressure without expending too much energy.

Expect Brito to cut the cage immediately and attack with calf kicks while threatening combinations. If Baghdasaryan can't establish his left kick early, he'll be in trouble.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Brito can't finish early, his output typically drops. Against Gomis, he maintained high volume for three rounds but lost a split decision. Against Sabatini, he got wrestled for 15 minutes.

Baghdasaryan's best chance comes if he can survive the early storm and land counter shots as Brito tires. But his own cardio issues (visible against Souza in round 3) make this a risky strategy.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

This is a three-round fight. Both fighters have shown cardio decline in later rounds. If it goes to round 3, expect a slower pace with both men looking for one big shot.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brito's pressure fighting should neutralize Baghdasaryan's kicking game. Shore couldn't handle Brito's cage-cutting and calf kicks; Baghdasaryan's 40% takedown defense suggests he'll struggle even more.

• Baghdasaryan was just KO'd by Jean Silva. Getting knocked out creates a vulnerability—the same might happen again, especially against a power puncher like Brito.

• Brito's recent losses came against a wrestler (Sabatini) and a point-fighter (Gomis). Baghdasaryan is neither. He wants to stand and trade, which plays into Brito's strengths.

• Baghdasaryan's one-dimensional offense is a major liability. If his left kick isn't working, he has no fallback. Brito's pressure and clinch work can deny him the space to throw it.

• Brito's 2-inch reach advantage (72" vs 70") gives him more room to work at range while still threatening with kicks.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Brito stems from several key features:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 14.0—the betting market heavily favors Brito at -300, and the model weighs this significantly.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 4.0—Brito's willingness to mix in wrestling (3.4 recent attempts per fight vs Baghdasaryan's 0) gives him tactical flexibility.

• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3.0—both fighters are 1-2 in their last 3, but Brito's overall body of work is stronger.

• Reach increased the score by 2.0—Brito's 72" reach vs Baghdasaryan's 70" provides a slight range advantage.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0—Baghdasaryan actually has better recent striking numbers (17.1 vs -0.6), which tempers the model's confidence slightly.

• Striking Defense Percentage decreased the score by 2.0—Brito's 26.75% striking defense is worse than Baghdasaryan's 56.9%, indicating he absorbs more shots.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Brito: - Correct: Predicted Brito over Pearce (0.45 score) and Brito over Fili (0.26 score)—both finishes. - Incorrect: Predicted Brito over Sabatini (0.52 score) and Brito over Gomis (0.57 score)—both decision losses. - Incorrect: Predicted Shore over Brito (0.53 score)—Brito won by doctor's stoppage.

The model has struggled with Brito in decision fights but correctly identified his finishing ability against Pearce and Fili.

For Baghdasaryan: - Correct: Predicted Culibao over Baghdasaryan (0.66 score)—Culibao won by submission. - Incorrect: Predicted Lutz over Baghdasaryan (0.79 score)—Baghdasaryan won by decision.

The model correctly identified Baghdasaryan's grappling vulnerability against Culibao.

Risk Assessment: The model's recent misses on Brito came against a wrestler and a point-fighter. Baghdasaryan is a striker who wants to stand and trade—a style Brito has historically handled well.

Conclusion

Brito's pressure fighting, cage-cutting ability, and clinch work should neutralize Baghdasaryan's one-dimensional kicking game. Baghdasaryan's recent KO loss to Silva and his 40% takedown defense create exploitable vulnerabilities. While Brito has lost two straight, those losses came against styles that don't match Baghdasaryan's approach. WolfTicketsAI has Brito winning this one, and the technical matchup supports that pick.