Analysis: Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Tereza Bleda

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tereza Bleda to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Jamey-Lyn Horth: +126
Tereza Bleda: -162

Jamey-Lyn Horth's Breakdown

Horth comes into this one at 3-2 in the UFC, having won two of her last three. Her most recent outing against Vanessa Demopoulos at UFC Atlanta was a clinic in range management. She used her 66-inch reach to pepper Demopoulos with body kicks, front kicks, and leg kicks throughout all three rounds. That heavy body kick in round one changed Demopoulos's movement patterns entirely—she went from bullying forward to circling away for the first time in the fight.

Signature Techniques:

1. Body Kicks from Range - Horth's soccer background shows up here. Against Demopoulos, she landed multiple heavy body kicks that accumulated damage and forced her opponent to respect the distance. Against Hailey Cowan in her UFC debut, she established this weapon early in round one and kept returning to it.

2. Front Kicks as Range Finders - In round two against Demopoulos, her front kicks were described as "a puzzle Demopoulos simply couldn't solve." She uses these to maintain distance and disrupt forward pressure.

3. Clinch Reversals and Exits - When opponents push her to the fence, Horth consistently reverses position and lands strikes on the exit. Against Demopoulos, she "cracked the smaller fighter a couple of times" while separating from clinch exchanges.

Technical Evolution:

Horth has shown improvement in her clinch work and defensive grappling. Against Cowan, she used butterfly hooks to elevate and scramble back to her feet quickly when taken down. Her ability to reverse positions against the cage has become a reliable weapon.

Jamey-Lyn Horth's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Open Mat Takedown Defense - Pre-fight analysis before the Demopoulos bout noted her takedown defense is solid against the cage but less reliable in open space. Cowan caught her body kicks and secured takedowns in rounds two and three. A wrestler who can shoot in open space could exploit this gap.

2. Susceptibility to Forward Pressure Early - Against Demopoulos, the smaller fighter was able to "bully her way forward" in the early exchanges. Horth initially circled outside before establishing her range game. An aggressive opponent who can sustain pressure may find early success.

3. Predictable Kick Setups - Cowan caught Horth's body kicks multiple times to initiate clinch work and takedowns. Opponents who time her kicks can close distance and neutralize her primary weapon.

Tereza Bleda's Breakdown

Bleda enters at 1-1 in the UFC after bouncing back from a devastating knockout loss to Natalia Silva. She's a grappling-heavy fighter with a 5-inch reach advantage over Horth (71 inches vs 66 inches). Her win over Gabriella Fernandes showed she can grind out decisions when her wrestling is working.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Work and Cage Control - Against Silva in her UFC debut, Bleda immediately pursued clinch positions. When Silva threw a spinning back kick, Bleda used it to put her against the fence and began working for underhooks. She's comfortable in the clinch and uses her frame to control position.

2. Level Changes and Takedown Attempts - Bleda averages 9.64 takedowns attempted per fight—an extremely high volume. She constantly changes levels to initiate grappling exchanges. Her takedown accuracy sits at 23.5%, meaning she relies on volume rather than precision.

3. Top Position Pressure - When Bleda secures top position, she implements a pressure-heavy game. Against Silva, she worked from half guard and threatened submissions. Her submission rate of 1.13 per fight shows she's dangerous on the mat.

Technical Evolution:

After the Silva loss, Bleda worked with mental coach Marian Jelínek to address nerves and pressure. She acknowledged approaching her debut with the "wrong mindset." Her win over Fernandes showed improved composure and the ability to execute a three-round game plan.

Tereza Bleda's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cardio and Conditioning - This was brutally exposed against Silva. The grappling exchanges left Bleda exhausted after just five minutes. By round three, she was visibly gassed and unable to mount effective offense or defense. If she can't secure early takedowns, she may fade badly.

2. Striking Defense When Changing Levels - Silva timed Bleda's level change with a spinning back kick that ended the fight. Bleda ducked right into it and took it flush on the chin. Her predictable shot timing makes her vulnerable to counters.

3. Inability to Maintain Dominant Position - Against Silva, despite securing top position and clinch control, Bleda struggled to keep opponents down. Silva showed ability to reverse, separate, and return to feet throughout the grappling exchanges.

⚠️ Warning: Bleda was knocked out by Silva in November 2022. Fighters who have been KO'd recently can be susceptible to the same fate again, particularly if they face similar pressure.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents an interesting clash of ranges. Horth wants to work at kicking distance where her body kicks and front kicks can accumulate damage. Bleda wants to close that distance immediately and drag the fight to the mat.

Horth's Techniques That Could Exploit Bleda: - Body kicks as Bleda shoots—Bleda's level changes are predictable, and Horth has shown she can time kicks against incoming pressure - Front kicks to the body to disrupt Bleda's forward movement - Clinch reversals when Bleda pushes her to the fence—Horth has proven she can turn these positions around

Bleda's Techniques That Could Cause Problems for Horth: - High-volume takedown attempts could overwhelm Horth's open-mat defense - Clinch work against the cage where Bleda's frame and grappling can neutralize Horth's kicking game - Submission threats from top position if she can secure and maintain control

The key question: Can Bleda close distance without eating too many kicks, and can she maintain position if she gets Horth down?

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Bleda will likely push forward immediately, looking to clinch and take the fight to the mat. Horth needs to establish her range early with front kicks and body kicks. If Horth can make Bleda pay for her entries in the first five minutes, the fight opens up significantly.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Bleda's takedowns aren't landing, her cardio becomes a major concern. Against Silva, she was exhausted after one round of grappling exchanges. Horth's conditioning has held up well through three rounds in all her UFC fights. If this fight stays standing into round two, expect Horth to start pulling away.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-rounder, but the late-fight dynamics favor Horth. She's never been finished in her professional career and has shown she can maintain output. Bleda's cardio issues could become catastrophic if she's still chasing takedowns in round three.

Analysis and Key Points

• Bleda's 5-inch reach advantage is unusual for a grappler—she can potentially jab her way into clinch range
• Horth's 0.30 takedown defense ratio is concerning against someone who attempts nearly 10 takedowns per fight
• Bleda's 100% takedown defense in her UFC career suggests she won't be reversed easily if she gets top position
• Horth has never been finished—her durability could be tested if Bleda secures dominant positions
• Bleda's recent win percentage of 33% (1-2 in recent form) raises questions about her current trajectory
• Horth's recent win percentage of 67% shows she's trending upward after the Maverick loss

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals several factors driving this prediction:

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 5.0—Bleda's 42.9% significant striking defense edges out Horth's ability to land clean
• Odds decreased the score by 3.0—the betting market favors Bleda, which the model partially discounts
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0—Horth's higher TrueSkill rating (29.4 vs 21.9) suggests she's the more proven fighter
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential and Recent Win Percentage each added 1.0—Bleda's recent metrics show some positive indicators
• Reach decreased the score by 1.0—Bleda's 5-inch reach advantage is noted but not heavily weighted
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased by 1.0—Bleda's high-volume wrestling approach carries risk

The model sees this as a close fight, with Bleda's defensive metrics and grappling pressure slightly outweighing Horth's striking advantages.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a solid track record with both fighters:

Horth: The model correctly predicted her win over Demopoulos (0.82 confidence), correctly picked against her vs Maverick (0.79), and correctly predicted her split decision win over Petrovic (0.64). That's 3-0 on Horth fights.

Bleda: The model correctly predicted her win over Fernandes (0.71 confidence). That's 1-0 on Bleda fights.

The model has been accurate with both fighters, though the sample size is small. The confidence score of 4 here reflects the uncertainty in this matchup.

Conclusion

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup with legitimate paths to victory for both women. Bleda's pressure wrestling and submission threats give her the tools to neutralize Horth's kicking game, but her cardio issues loom large. Horth has the striking to make Bleda pay for her entries, but her open-mat takedown defense is a genuine concern.

WolfTicketsAI sides with Bleda here. Her reach advantage, defensive metrics, and grappling pressure should allow her to close distance and implement her game plan. If she can get this fight to the mat early and avoid the energy-draining scrambles that plagued her against Silva, she has the tools to grind out a decision or find a submission. The model sees Bleda's path to victory as the more reliable one—expect her to push forward, absorb some kicks, and drag this fight into her world.