Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Edmen Shahbazyan: -180 AJ Dobson: 150

Edmen Shahbazyan's Breakdown

Edmen Shahbazyan enters this bout with a solid 12-4 record, but he's been struggling recently with 4 losses in his last 5 fights. His most recent fight was a KO loss to Anthony Hernandez in May 2023, a concerning result given it's his 3rd KO loss in his last 5 fights.

Prior to this skid, Shahbazyan was on an impressive run, notching wins over the likes of Brad Tavares and Jack Marshman. He's shown strong finishing instincts, with 9 of his 12 wins coming by KO/TKO or submission.

Statistically, Shahbazyan has solid striking metrics, landing 3.57 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy. However, he absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute, a potential vulnerability. His grappling is decent, averaging 2.19 takedowns per fight at 39% accuracy.

AJ Dobson's Breakdown

AJ Dobson is 1-2 in the UFC so far, most recently losing a decision to Armen Petrosyan in October 2022. Prior to that, he lost a decision to Jacob Malkoun in February 2022. His lone UFC win came against Tafon Nchukwi by decision in August 2023.

With such a small sample size in the UFC, it's hard to draw too many conclusions about Dobson's game. He's shown solid striking volume, landing 5.11 significant strikes per minute, but his defense is porous, absorbing 5.51 strikes per minute. His takedown game has been solid when he's used it, securing 1.67 takedowns per fight at 83% accuracy.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Shahbazyan will likely look to keep the fight standing and use his high-volume kickboxing to overwhelm Dobson. He throws fast 1-2 combinations and mixes in hard kicks to all levels.

Dobson's path to victory likely involves turning this into a grappling match. He's shown good takedown entries in the UFC, chaining single legs into doubles and finishing strongly. If he can get Shahbazyan down, he'll look to control position and land ground and pound.

The big question is Shahbazyan's durability and whether his chin has deteriorated after those recent KO losses. He was reckless against Brunson in rushing forward, and Hernandez caught him with counters he didn't see coming. If he leaves similar openings for Dobson, he could be in trouble.

Understanding the Prediction

The betting odds are strongly in Shahbazyan's favor at -180, and this was the biggest factor increasing the model's score by 9 points. His significant striking impact differential is also better than Dobson's (+3 to -7.33 for Shahbazyan vs -24.67 for Dobson).

Shahbazyan also attempts more takedowns per fight recently (5.92 vs 1.07), increasing the score by 3 points. His recent significant striking impact differential is better too (+2). Finally, his recent win rate of 33% is better than Dobson's.

Factors slightly decreasing the score: Shahbazyan has a lower TrueSkill rating and has absorbed more strikes recently. His striking defense and accuracy are also a bit worse than Dobson's.

Past Model Performance

As noted above, WolfTickets' recent predictions on Shahbazyan have been good (2-0) while it has struggled with Dobson (0-2). This suggests more confidence in the Shahbazyan side of the prediction. However, the model has overestimated Shahbazyan in the past (Brunson fight), so an upset by Dobson wouldn't be a total shock.

Conclusion

Overall, Edmen Shahbazyan deserves to be favored here based on his longer UFC track record and superior striking metrics. However, his recent skid and those KO losses are concerning, and give AJ Dobson a clear path to victory if he can weather the early storm and turn it into a grappling match.

The odds and prediction score indicate solid confidence in a Shahbazyan win, but given the small sample on Dobson and Shahbazyan's unanswered questions around his chin, this fight does carry upset potential. For a confident bet, I want to see that Shahbazyan's defensive grappling and striking defense have improved. Barring that, Dobson is live for the upset as the underdog if he can exploit those holes with well-timed takedowns and land a fight-changing shot on the feet.