Analysis: Brady Hiestand vs Garrett Armfield

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Garrett Armfield to Win

Score: 6 Odds: Brady Hiestand: 155 Garrett Armfield: -185

Brady Hiestand's Breakdown

Brady Hiestand, fighting out of Sikjitsu, comes into this fight with an 8-2 record and is riding a 2 fight win streak in the UFC. His last fight was an impressive KO victory over Batgerel Danaa in April 2023, showing his striking power. Prior to that, he won a unanimous decision over Fernie Garcia, demonstrating his ability to outpoint opponents over 3 rounds.

At 5'8" with a 71" reach, Hiestand is known for his grappling skills, particularly his wrestling. He has a high takedown rate, attempting 8.79 per fight with a 46% success rate. On the feet, while competent, his striking is not as polished as his opponent's. He has a slightly negative striking differential but solid defense, absorbing 3.73 strikes per minute while landing 2.93 significant strikes.

Hiestand has shown great durability and cardio, having gone the distance in a competitive bout against Ricky Turcios where he secured six takedowns. It's been roughly 14 months since his last fight, so cage rust could potentially be a factor.

Garrett Armfield's Breakdown

Fighting out of Marathon MMA, Garrett Armfield enters with a 10-3 record but is just 2-1 in the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision win over Brad Katona in January 2024, bouncing back from a submission loss to David Onama in his previous fight. His UFC debut was a highlight reel KO of Toshiomi Kazama in the first round.

At 5'6" with a 70" reach, Armfield is primarily a striker, known for his striking accuracy and power. He lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute at a 54% accuracy. From an orthodox stance, his aggressive style makes him formidable on the feet and he has a history of knockout victories.

Armfield also has excellent striking defense, only absorbing 4.19 strikes per minute. The key for him is keeping the fight standing, as he hasn't landed a takedown in the UFC and only defends them at a 55% clip. Though primarily a striker, Armfield has a wrestling background and solid jiu-jitsu skills. He can defend takedowns and has shown the ability to submit opponents.

One potential concern is that Armfield's high output and aggressive style can sometimes lead to him slowing down in later rounds, so his cardio will be tested if Hiestand can extend the fight.

Previous Fight Breakdown

These two fighters have not faced each other before.

Analysis and Key Points

• This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Hiestand will look to use his wrestling to ground Armfield, while Armfield wants to keep it standing and outland Hiestand.
• Armfield's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and out-striking Hiestand. His striking output, accuracy, and power advantages should allow him to pile up damage if he can stuff the takedowns.
• Hiestand needs to get this fight to the mat to win. His striking is effective but not as polished as Armfield's. Look for him to close the distance and chain wrestle.
• Armfield's takedown defense is a concern. If he can't keep Hiestand off of him, he could get controlled on the ground. Maintaining distance with strikes is key.
• Cardio could come into play if it goes long. Armfield has shown the ability to fade late, while Hiestand's durability and conditioning are proven.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds favoring Armfield decreased the prediction score for Hiestand by 6 points, showing oddsmakers and the model align.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted: Hiestand's 10.74 takedown attempts per fight in his last 3 increased the score for him by 6 points, indicating his wrestling could be key.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Armfield's +21 differential decreased the score for Hiestand by 2 points, as did his +8.8 recent differential. Hiestand's negative differentials are a concern.
• Recent Win Percentage: Armfield's 67% recent win rate increased the score for him by 2 points compared to Hiestand's same 67% rate.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed results predicting these fighters:

• It correctly predicted Hiestand's last two wins over Danaa and Garcia with 67% and 75% confidence.
• However, it incorrectly picked against Armfield in his last two fights, giving Katona a 67% chance and Kazama a 69% chance before Armfield won both fights.

This suggests the model may be underrating Armfield's abilities somewhat, especially his striking power. The incorrect Kazama prediction where Armfield scored a KO is particularly notable.

Conclusion

Armfield has the clear striking advantage and is deservedly the favorite, but Hiestand's wrestling could be the great equalizer. The model gives Armfield a slight edge, but Hiestand's chances may be a bit underrated given the model's past performance picking against Armfield.

Still, Armfield's takedown defense has looked shaky, so if he can shore that up and keep it standing, his slick striking and power should carry him to a decision win or late stoppage as Hiestand fades. The pick is Armfield but this one could come down to who is able to impose their game plan and skill set. It's a true clash of styles that makes it a must-watch for MMA fans.