Analysis: Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ryan Spann to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Ryan Spann: -200 Bogdan Guskov: 165

Ryan Spann's Breakdown

Ryan Spann is a seasoned UFC veteran with 11 fights under his belt in the promotion. His record stands at 7 wins and 4 losses in the UFC, with his most recent fights being back-to-back losses against top contenders Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov. Prior to that though, Spann had scored impressive wins over Dominick Reyes (KO/TKO), Ion Cutelaba (Submission), and Misha Cirkunov (KO/TKO).

Spann has solid wrestling and grappling skills, averaging 1.3 takedowns per fight at a 35% accuracy rate. On the feet, he lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.97, giving him a slight edge in output. His striking defense (45.7%) is decent but not impenetrable.

One potential red flag is that Spann has been finished by submission in 2 of his last 3 losses. His takedown defense will need to be on point against a submission threat like Guskov.

Bogdan Guskov's Breakdown

Bogdan Guskov is a relative newcomer to the UFC with just 2 fights so far, going 1-1. He lost his debut by submission to Volkan Oezdemir, but bounced back with a KO/TKO win over Zac Pauga in his sophomore outing.

The limited sample size makes it tougher to analyze Guskov's game. But in those 2 UFC fights, he's displayed solid striking output, landing 4.73 strikes per minute. However, his defense has been porous, absorbing 5.68 strikes per minute. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and was taken down and submitted in his debut, so the grappling aspect of his game is still a question mark.

The KO win over Pauga showed Guskov has legitimate stopping power on the feet. But overall, he's still largely unproven against UFC caliber competition.

Analysis and Key Points

• Experience heavily favors Spann. With 11 UFC fights compared to just 2 for Guskov, Spann has seen far more high level competition.

• Spann's grappling could be a factor. He lands 1.3 takedowns per fight and has submission wins on his record. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and has been submitted before.

• Guskov's defensive holes are concerning. He absorbs 5.68 strikes per minute, far more than he lands. Spann may be able to exploit this with volume or wrestle him to the mat.

• Prediction comes with some uncertainty due to Guskov's small sample size of UFC fights. He's more of an unknown commodity.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds (-200 Spann, +165 Guskov): The odds indicate Spann is a moderate betting favorite, which aligns with the model favoring him to win. The betting market seems to concur that Spann should be favored based on his experience.

• Recent Win Percentage (Spann 33%, Guskov 33%): Both fighters have gone 1-2 in their last 3 fights. This suggests neither one enters with much momentum, making this a tricky style matchup to handicap.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (Spann 3.77, Guskov 0.0): Spann is far more wrestling-oriented and will likely look to get this fight to the mat at some point. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC.

• TrueSkill Rating (Spann 32.69, Guskov 25.0): The TrueSkill ratings, which measure a fighter's overall ability, favor Spann by a decent margin. This is likely factoring in Spann's much longer track record.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has struggled in predicting both fighters, going 0-3 in Spann's last 3 fights and 0-1 in Guskov's. So while the model sees Spann as a clear favorite here based on the underlying metrics, the recent prediction track record does introduce added uncertainty.

The model was very confident in Zac Pauga to beat Guskov last time out, and Guskov won by KO/TKO. So Guskov has already proven capable of upsetting the model's expectations once before.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Ryan Spann deserves to be favored based on his lengthier UFC tenure and more well-rounded skill set. His ability to wrestle and submit opponents could prove vital, as Bogdan Guskov's grappling chops are still unproven.

However, Guskov's power striking and short UFC track record do make him a live underdog. If he can keep this fight standing and land the harder shots, an upset KO is well within the realm of possibility.

For bettors, the model's recent struggles to predict both fighters does introduce added risk. Spann is the more proven entity and justifiable favorite, but his moneyline doesn't offer great value at -200. The Guskov upset at +165 could be worth a small play for risk-tolerant bettors, as he likely has a better shot than those odds imply in what shapes up as a competitive fight. The over/under may be the safest play, as both fighters have shown finishing ability.