Analysis: Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jonathan Pearce to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Jonathan Pearce: -170 David Onama: 140

Jonathan Pearce's Breakdown

Jonathan Pearce is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base. He averages 5.33 takedowns per fight and has won by submission in the UFC. In his last fight against Joanderson Brito, Pearce was submitted in the second round, showing a potential vulnerability. However, prior to that loss, he had put together an impressive 4-fight win streak in the UFC.

Pearce's striking has been steadily improving. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.78. His striking defense (50.87%) and accuracy (66.31%) are both solid. Look for Pearce to mix in his wrestling with his striking to keep Onama guessing.

David Onama's Breakdown

David Onama is an exciting prospect with knockout power. He has finished 3 of his 4 UFC wins by KO/TKO, including a highlight reel knockout of Gabriel Santos in his last fight. Onama lands a blistering 5.38 significant strikes per minute.

However, Onama's grappling could be a liability against a wrestler like Pearce. He attempts only 4.63 takedowns per fight and his takedown accuracy is just 18.75%. Onama was controlled on the ground in his loss to Nate Landwehr. He'll need to keep this fight standing to have his best chance of winning.

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Onama has the clear advantage on the feet, while Pearce will look to take it to the mat.
• Pearce's submission loss in his last fight is concerning. It shows he can be vulnerable on the ground against high-level grapplers. However, Onama is not known for his grappling.
• Onama has scary KO power and faster hands. If he can stuff Pearce's takedowns and keep it standing, he has a great chance of getting a knockout.
• Pearce has to avoid getting into a firefight. His path to victory is to grind Onama down with wrestling and top control. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Pearce.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds currently favor Pearce at -170. This was a significant factor in the model predicting him to win.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Pearce lands 16.71 more impactful significant strikes per minute than his opponents. This advantage increased the model's confidence in a Pearce win.
• Recent Win Percentage: Pearce has won 67% of his last 3 fights, while Onama has won 67% of his last 3. Their recent winning percentages being equal slightly increased the model's pick of Pearce.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Pearce shoots for more takedowns (11.48 per fight) compared to Onama (5.33 per fight) in their recent fights. Pearce's high takedown rate boosted the model's prediction for him.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed results predicting these fighters:

• The model predicted correctly in Pearce's last 3 fights, but incorrectly picked him to lose to Joanderson Brito.
• The model has only correctly predicted 1 of Onama's last 3 fights. It incorrectly picked against him in his last 2 bouts.

The model's shaky recent record, especially predicting Onama fights, adds some uncertainty to this pick. Bettors should be cautious.

Conclusion

Jonathan Pearce has a clear path to victory by utilizing his wrestling against a striking-focused opponent in David Onama. The model favors Pearce based on the betting odds and his grappling advantage.

However, Onama's knockout power makes him dangerous, and the model has struggled to predict his fights accurately.

This bout will likely come down to whether Pearce can consistently land takedowns or if Onama can keep it on the feet and land a big shot. It's a competitive matchup, but WolfTicketsAI gives the slight edge to Jonathan Pearce.