Analysis: Austin Hubbard vs Michal Figlak

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Austin Hubbard to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Austin Hubbard: 130 Michal Figlak: -155

Austin Hubbard's Breakdown

Austin Hubbard is a seasoned lightweight with a 16-7 record, though he's had mixed results in his 8 UFC fights. His striking defense has been a strength, absorbing just 1.95 head strikes per minute while landing 1.86 of his own. He's also shown good takedown ability, securing 1.55 takedowns per fight at a 52% accuracy rate.

However, Hubbard has struggled in his last few outings, losing 3 of his last 4. Most recently, he was submitted by Kurt Holobaugh in the 2nd round. Prior to that, he lost a unanimous decision to Vinc Pichel. His takedown defense was exposed in the Pichel fight, giving up 4 takedowns.

Michal Figlak's Breakdown

Michal Figlak is a promising lightweight prospect with an 8-1 record, though he only has one UFC fight under his belt so far. In that debut against Fares Ziam, Figlak showed some holes in his game. He was outstruck 56-36 in significant strikes and absorbed 2.26 head strikes per minute while only landing 0.86 of his own.

Figlak did show good takedown ability, securing 1 takedown on 5 attempts. But his takedown defense was lacking as he gave up 3 of 4 attempts. Overall, there are still a lot of question marks around Figlak given his inexperience at the top level.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Matchup Favors Hubbard: Hubbard has the edge in significant striking, both offensively and defensively. He lands 3.83 per minute to Figlak's 1.86, while absorbing less at 1.95 per minute vs 2.26 for Figlak.
• Hubbard's Experience Advantage: With 8 UFC fights compared to just 1 for Figlak, Hubbard has seen a much higher level of competition. That seasoning could be key.
• Figlak's Takedown Ability: In his debut, Figlak showed promise with his wrestling, securing a takedown and defending 3 of 4 attempts. If he can get Hubbard down, it could be a path to victory.
• Questions About Figlak: With such a small sample size in the UFC, there are still a lot of unknowns about Figlak's game and how it will hold up against tougher competition. Betting on him is riskier as a result.

Understanding the Prediction

• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hubbard's differential of 5.62 is much better than Figlak's -32.0, increasing the prediction score significantly.
• Striking Impact Differential: Similarly, Hubbard's overall striking differential of 14.75 dwarfs Figlak's -56.0, again boosting the prediction in his favor.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Hubbard absorbs just 50% of his opponent's strike attempts, while Figlak absorbs 68%, giving another advantage to Hubbard.
• Odds: Interestingly, the odds actually favor Figlak at -155 compared to +130 for Hubbard. The prediction model sees value in betting Hubbard as an underdog.

Past Model Performance

This is the first time WolfTicketsAI has predicted a fight involving Michal Figlak, so there is no past performance data to assess.

For Austin Hubbard, the model's one previous prediction did not go well. It gave Hubbard a score of 0.69 in his fight against Kurt Holobaugh, but Hubbard went on to lose by 2nd round submission. This adds some uncertainty to the model's prediction here.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sees value in Austin Hubbard as a +130 underdog against the lightly tested Michal Figlak. Hubbard has significant advantages in striking volume and defense that the model believes will be the difference.

However, there are some risk factors to consider. Hubbard is just 1-3 in his last 4 fights and was submitted in his most recent outing. With the model going 0-1 in predicting his fights, it's worth proceeding with some caution.

For Figlak, his takedown ability is intriguing but his striking defense is a concern, especially against a higher volume striker in Hubbard. And with no track record to evaluate the model's performance on Figlak, his side of the matchup is harder to handicap.

Overall, the bet is Hubbard at plus money, but given the uncertainty around both fighters in recent performances, keeping the wager small is advisable.