Analysis: Giga Chikadze vs David Onama

WolfTicketsAI Predicts David Onama to Win

Score: 13
Odds:
Giga Chikadze: 134
David Onama: -172

Giga Chikadze's Breakdown

Giga "Ninja" Chikadze brings elite kickboxing credentials to this matchup with his signature "Giga Kick" liver shot that has finished multiple opponents. His technical striking was on full display against Edson Barboza, where he methodically broke down the Brazilian kickboxer before finishing him with a flurry of punches in the third round.

However, Chikadze has shown serious vulnerabilities when pressured. Against Calvin Kattar, he was completely overwhelmed when Kattar cut off the cage, neutralized his kicking game with the "switch 45" technique, and forced him to fight off his back foot. Kattar's pressure left Chikadze's face severely damaged while absorbing minimal damage himself.

Chikadze's recent performances have been mixed. He dropped a unanimous decision to Arnold Allen in July, where Allen effectively "walked him down" by throwing combinations rather than single strikes. This approach prevented Chikadze from establishing his preferred kicking range. Before that, Chikadze managed a win over Alex Caceres, though his effectiveness was limited when Caceres fought from southpaw, neutralizing his liver kick.

David Onama's Breakdown

Onama has shown impressive development in his UFC career, particularly in his striking game. Against Jonathan Pearce, he displayed creative striking setups, using a technique where he brings his back foot onto the ball of his foot while faking kicks, creating a sprinter-like stance that generates explosive forward movement.

His knockout power was evident against Gabriel Santos, where he weathered early pressure before landing devastating counter strikes. After Santos pressured him, Onama timed an intercepting knee that stood Santos up, followed by punches and a finishing uppercut. This sequence demonstrated Onama's fight IQ and ability to identify openings.

Onama's grappling has also improved significantly. Against Garrett Armfield, he showed seamless transitions between striking and grappling, executing a powerful double-leg takedown that led directly to the finishing arm triangle choke. His training with James Krause has refined his technical approach, particularly in wrestling transitions.

Most recently, Onama has shown continued growth with a unanimous decision win over Roberto Romero, where he combined precise striking with dominant grappling control.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking matchup: Chikadze is the more technical striker with better distance management, but Onama has shown more raw power and better counter-striking ability.

• Pressure fighting: Chikadze struggles significantly when pressured, as shown in his losses to Kattar and Allen. Onama has demonstrated the ability to apply effective pressure against opponents.

• Adaptability: Onama has shown better mid-fight adjustments, particularly against Santos when he weathered early pressure before finding the knockout.

• Grappling edge: While neither fighter relies primarily on wrestling, Onama has shown more effective offensive grappling, which could be a factor if he decides to mix in takedowns.

• Cardio concerns: Chikadze has faded in longer fights when pressured, while Onama has maintained effectiveness into later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

Several key factors influenced WolfTicketsAI's prediction:

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the model's confidence by 3 points, highlighting Onama's better defensive striking numbers compared to Chikadze.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 1 point, showing Onama's recent effectiveness in landing impactful strikes.

• Striking Impact Differential added another point to Onama's favor, indicating his overall edge in landing damaging strikes.

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 6 points, suggesting the betting market may be overvaluing Onama.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3 points, acknowledging Chikadze's better track record in recent fights.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model correctly predicted Chikadze's win against Alex Caceres but incorrectly favored him against Calvin Kattar. For Onama, the model accurately predicted his win against Gabriel Benitez but missed on his fights against Nate Landwehr, Gabriel Santos, and Jonathan Pearce. Interestingly, the model has been right on Onama's most recent fight, suggesting its understanding of his current form may be improving.

Conclusion

Expect David Onama to pressure Giga Chikadze early and disrupt his preferred kicking range. Onama's power striking and improved grappling give him multiple paths to victory, while Chikadze will struggle if forced to fight off his back foot. WolfTicketsAI sees Onama's pressure fighting style and superior striking defense as the deciding factors in this matchup.