Mitch Ramirez vs. Mike Davis - UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Mike Davis by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Elevation: 120.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Mitch Ramirez
23
8
-10.8
-900
Mike Davis
5
+520

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Lightweight weight class.

Mitch Ramirez
Mike Davis
Lightweight Average (50th percentile)

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Mitch Ramirez

Weight Class: Lightweight

Final Confidence: 24.15

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +5.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 22 and 26, increased by 5%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Mitch Ramirez

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • March 16, 2024: Mitch Ramirez lost against Thiago Moises. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:15. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
Mike Davis

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • February 1, 2025: Mike Davis lost against Fares Ziam. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • March 16, 2024: Mike Davis won against Natan Levy. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:43. Method of victory: Submission.
  • October 1, 2022: Mike Davis won against Viacheslav Borshchev. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 26 - 30. 26 - 30.
  • January 20, 2021: Mike Davis won against Mason Jones. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • October 12, 2019: Mike Davis won against Thomas Gifford. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:45. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • April 27, 2019: Mike Davis lost against Gilbert Burns. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:15. Method of victory: Submission.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Mitch Ramirez vs Mike Davis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mitch Ramirez to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Mitch Ramirez: -900
Mike Davis: +520

Mitch Ramirez's Breakdown

Ramirez brings a calf kick-heavy approach that worked effectively in his early UFC run but showed critical flaws against Thiago Moises. His signature technique involves quick, snapping calf kicks aimed at the lateral aspect of his opponent's lead leg, landing 0.68 per minute with minimal telegraph in his setup. Against Moises, Ramirez opened strong with these attacks, temporarily disrupting his opponent's mobility before the tables turned.

His second key weapon is methodical pressure striking, using balanced footwork to cut angles and create openings for his leg attacks. Ramirez demonstrates tactical awareness in clinch situations, though he relies more on technical precision than explosive athleticism. His recent evolution shows he's become more specialized in leg attacks rather than expanding his arsenal - a double-edged development that makes him predictable but dangerous when his timing is on.

When his primary gameplan fails, Ramirez struggles to adapt mid-fight. Against Moises, he continued pursuing calf kicks even as he absorbed heavy damage to his own lead leg, showing an inability to pivot to alternative offensive sequences when his bread-and-butter technique was neutralized.

Mitch Ramirez's Technical Vulnerabilities

Calf Kick Defense: Ramirez's most glaring weakness is his inability to check or counter incoming leg attacks. Against Moises, he maintained a flat-footed stance while absorbing numerous calf kicks without adapting his defensive posture. His tendency to stay planted makes his lead leg a sitting duck for opponents who can time his entries.

Single-Weapon Dependency: When facing opponents who neutralize his calf kick strategy, Ramirez lacks effective backup options. Against Moises, once his leg kick game was compromised, he had no alternative offensive sequences to fall back on, leading to his eventual knockout loss.

Predictable Entries: His calf kick setups follow consistent patterns without feints or rhythm changes, making them easier to time and counter for experienced opponents.

Mike Davis's Breakdown

Davis typically operates as an aggressive pressure striker with devastating boxing combinations, but his recent performance against Fares Ziam revealed concerning physical limitations. His signature approach involves cutting off the cage with balanced footwork before unleashing tight combinations - doubling up on head punches before targeting the body with right hooks.

Against Natan Levy, Davis showcased his technical striking superiority by checking Levy's lead hand before firing a perfectly timed straight right that scored an immediate knockdown. His ability to time takedowns off striking exchanges is elite - he waits for opponents to overcommit before changing levels and securing dominant positions. Once on top, Davis demonstrates excellent positional control, particularly from mount where he maintains high posture for ground strikes.

His submission game has evolved significantly, as shown by his arm triangle finish against Levy. Davis recognized Levy's "open turtle" defensive posture and exploited it with textbook technique - grabbing the wrist, applying downward pressure, then inserting his leg hook through the created space.

Mike Davis's Technical Vulnerabilities

Compromised Physical Condition: Davis's recent fight against Ziam showed him pulling guard three times in the opening minutes - completely abandoning his trademark pressure striking. This uncharacteristic approach suggests ongoing physical limitations that severely compromise his technical execution.

Telegraphed Power Strikes: Davis drops his right hand conspicuously before launching power shots, making his offensive entries predictable. Against Borshchev, this telegraphing was evident when he would jab then visibly load up on his right hand.

Defensive Wrestling Gaps: When engaging in grappling exchanges while compromised, Davis struggles to maintain his base, frequently collapsing to his knees during takedown attempts. His guard retention from bottom position also shows technical deficiencies when he can't establish proper frames.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating technical clash between Ramirez's leg-heavy attack system and Davis's boxing-centric pressure game. Ramirez's calf kicks could exploit Davis's tendency to maintain a flat-footed stance when loading up on power punches, potentially compromising Davis's mobility and explosive entries.

However, Davis's straight right hand down the center - his most effective weapon against southpaws like Levy - could find success against Ramirez's predictable calf kick entries. When Ramirez commits to his leg attacks, he often leaves his head exposed on the centerline, creating opportunities for Davis's signature boxing combinations.

The key technical battle will be whether Ramirez can establish his calf kick rhythm before Davis closes distance and initiates his pressure striking sequences. Davis's ability to cut off the cage could limit Ramirez's mobility and force him into boxing exchanges where Davis holds clear advantages.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Ramirez will likely open with his signature calf kick strategy, looking to compromise Davis's mobility before the pressure striker can establish his rhythm. Davis needs to time his entries carefully, using his jab to check Ramirez's lead hand before firing combinations.

Mid-fight adjustments: If Ramirez's leg attacks prove effective, Davis may need to implement more takedown-heavy sequences to avoid prolonged striking exchanges. Conversely, if Davis establishes his boxing dominance early, Ramirez will need to find alternative offensive approaches - something he's historically struggled with.

Championship rounds: Davis's recent physical limitations could become a factor in later rounds, potentially forcing him to rely more heavily on grappling exchanges where his technical advantages are less pronounced.

Analysis and Key Points

Ramirez's leg kick volume (0.68 per minute) could disrupt Davis's pressure footwork, similar to how Moises exploited this strategy • Davis's boxing accuracy (56.87%) and combination striking create clear advantages in pocket exchanges • Physical condition concerns for Davis based on his unusual guard-pulling strategy against Ziam • Ramirez's defensive vulnerabilities to leg attacks mirror the exact weapon Davis occasionally uses (0.45 per minute) • Davis's takedown game (2.97 per fight) provides backup options when striking fails

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Ramirez based on several key factors. Odds provided the largest boost (+21 points), reflecting the significant betting line disparity. Recent Win Percentage added 3 points, with Ramirez maintaining 80% compared to Davis's concerning 67% recent record. Multiple Striking Impact Differential metrics each contributed 1 point, suggesting Ramirez's leg-heavy approach creates more cumulative damage than Davis's recent output. Striking Defense Percentage slightly decreased confidence (-1 point), acknowledging Ramirez's vulnerability to the exact type of boxing combinations Davis specializes in.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has never predicted Ramirez before, creating some uncertainty around his profile. However, the model shows mixed results with Davis - correctly predicting his wins over Levy (0.64 score) and Borshchev (0.77 score), but incorrectly favoring him against Ziam (0.55 score). The Ziam prediction failure is particularly relevant given Davis's compromised performance in that fight.

Conclusion

Despite Davis's superior boxing skills and grappling advantages, his recent physical limitations and Ramirez's specialized leg attack system create a dangerous stylistic matchup. Ramirez's calf kicks can neutralize Davis's pressure game while exploiting his flat-footed tendencies when loading up on power shots. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Ramirez reflects both the significant odds disparity and the technical reality that a compromised Davis facing a specialist leg kicker presents serious upset potential.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Mitch Ramirez Mike Davis
Main Stats
Age 32 32
Height 71" 72"
Reach 71" 72"
Win Percentage 80.00% 78.57%
Wins 8 12
Losses 3 3
Wins at Weight Class 0 4
Losses at Weight Class 1 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 43.08% 56.87%
Significant Striking Accuracy 33.33% 53.70%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.732 5.415
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 1.561 4.596
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.594
Striking Impact Differential -25.00% -8.67%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -9.00% -2.00%
Striking Output Differential -7.00% -35.83%
Significant Striking Output Differential 9.00% -29.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 67.86% 115.61%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 87.50% 133.62%
Striking Defense Percentage 35.90% 56.36%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.594
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 2.972
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.000 5.943
Takedown Defense 0.00% 81.82%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 50.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 0.390 2.958
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 3.122 6.287
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.976 2.958
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.488 1.189
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.683 1.691
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.293 0.792
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.683 0.449
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.878 0.581
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.171 1.004
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.293 0.396
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.293 0.489
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.195 0.370
Mitch Ramirez History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 16, 2024 Lightweight Thiago Moises Mitch Ramirez Thiago Moises
Mike Davis History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 1, 2025 Lightweight Fares Ziam Mike Davis Fares Ziam
March 16, 2024 Lightweight Natan Levy Mike Davis Mike Davis
Oct. 1, 2022 Lightweight Mike Davis Viacheslav Borshchev Mike Davis
Jan. 20, 2021 Lightweight Mike Davis Mason Jones Mike Davis
Oct. 12, 2019 Lightweight Mike Davis Thomas Gifford Mike Davis
April 27, 2019 Lightweight Gilbert Burns Mike Davis Gilbert Burns