The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Lightweight weight class.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Mitch Ramirez
Weight Class: Lightweight
Final Confidence: 24.15
Value: +5.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 22 and 26, increased by 5%
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 23
Odds:
Mitch Ramirez: -900
Mike Davis: +520
Ramirez brings a calf kick-heavy approach that worked effectively in his early UFC run but showed critical flaws against Thiago Moises. His signature technique involves quick, snapping calf kicks aimed at the lateral aspect of his opponent's lead leg, landing 0.68 per minute with minimal telegraph in his setup. Against Moises, Ramirez opened strong with these attacks, temporarily disrupting his opponent's mobility before the tables turned.
His second key weapon is methodical pressure striking, using balanced footwork to cut angles and create openings for his leg attacks. Ramirez demonstrates tactical awareness in clinch situations, though he relies more on technical precision than explosive athleticism. His recent evolution shows he's become more specialized in leg attacks rather than expanding his arsenal - a double-edged development that makes him predictable but dangerous when his timing is on.
When his primary gameplan fails, Ramirez struggles to adapt mid-fight. Against Moises, he continued pursuing calf kicks even as he absorbed heavy damage to his own lead leg, showing an inability to pivot to alternative offensive sequences when his bread-and-butter technique was neutralized.
Calf Kick Defense: Ramirez's most glaring weakness is his inability to check or counter incoming leg attacks. Against Moises, he maintained a flat-footed stance while absorbing numerous calf kicks without adapting his defensive posture. His tendency to stay planted makes his lead leg a sitting duck for opponents who can time his entries.
Single-Weapon Dependency: When facing opponents who neutralize his calf kick strategy, Ramirez lacks effective backup options. Against Moises, once his leg kick game was compromised, he had no alternative offensive sequences to fall back on, leading to his eventual knockout loss.
Predictable Entries: His calf kick setups follow consistent patterns without feints or rhythm changes, making them easier to time and counter for experienced opponents.
Davis typically operates as an aggressive pressure striker with devastating boxing combinations, but his recent performance against Fares Ziam revealed concerning physical limitations. His signature approach involves cutting off the cage with balanced footwork before unleashing tight combinations - doubling up on head punches before targeting the body with right hooks.
Against Natan Levy, Davis showcased his technical striking superiority by checking Levy's lead hand before firing a perfectly timed straight right that scored an immediate knockdown. His ability to time takedowns off striking exchanges is elite - he waits for opponents to overcommit before changing levels and securing dominant positions. Once on top, Davis demonstrates excellent positional control, particularly from mount where he maintains high posture for ground strikes.
His submission game has evolved significantly, as shown by his arm triangle finish against Levy. Davis recognized Levy's "open turtle" defensive posture and exploited it with textbook technique - grabbing the wrist, applying downward pressure, then inserting his leg hook through the created space.
Compromised Physical Condition: Davis's recent fight against Ziam showed him pulling guard three times in the opening minutes - completely abandoning his trademark pressure striking. This uncharacteristic approach suggests ongoing physical limitations that severely compromise his technical execution.
Telegraphed Power Strikes: Davis drops his right hand conspicuously before launching power shots, making his offensive entries predictable. Against Borshchev, this telegraphing was evident when he would jab then visibly load up on his right hand.
Defensive Wrestling Gaps: When engaging in grappling exchanges while compromised, Davis struggles to maintain his base, frequently collapsing to his knees during takedown attempts. His guard retention from bottom position also shows technical deficiencies when he can't establish proper frames.
This matchup presents a fascinating technical clash between Ramirez's leg-heavy attack system and Davis's boxing-centric pressure game. Ramirez's calf kicks could exploit Davis's tendency to maintain a flat-footed stance when loading up on power punches, potentially compromising Davis's mobility and explosive entries.
However, Davis's straight right hand down the center - his most effective weapon against southpaws like Levy - could find success against Ramirez's predictable calf kick entries. When Ramirez commits to his leg attacks, he often leaves his head exposed on the centerline, creating opportunities for Davis's signature boxing combinations.
The key technical battle will be whether Ramirez can establish his calf kick rhythm before Davis closes distance and initiates his pressure striking sequences. Davis's ability to cut off the cage could limit Ramirez's mobility and force him into boxing exchanges where Davis holds clear advantages.
Early rounds: Ramirez will likely open with his signature calf kick strategy, looking to compromise Davis's mobility before the pressure striker can establish his rhythm. Davis needs to time his entries carefully, using his jab to check Ramirez's lead hand before firing combinations.
Mid-fight adjustments: If Ramirez's leg attacks prove effective, Davis may need to implement more takedown-heavy sequences to avoid prolonged striking exchanges. Conversely, if Davis establishes his boxing dominance early, Ramirez will need to find alternative offensive approaches - something he's historically struggled with.
Championship rounds: Davis's recent physical limitations could become a factor in later rounds, potentially forcing him to rely more heavily on grappling exchanges where his technical advantages are less pronounced.
• Ramirez's leg kick volume (0.68 per minute) could disrupt Davis's pressure footwork, similar to how Moises exploited this strategy • Davis's boxing accuracy (56.87%) and combination striking create clear advantages in pocket exchanges • Physical condition concerns for Davis based on his unusual guard-pulling strategy against Ziam • Ramirez's defensive vulnerabilities to leg attacks mirror the exact weapon Davis occasionally uses (0.45 per minute) • Davis's takedown game (2.97 per fight) provides backup options when striking fails
The model heavily favors Ramirez based on several key factors. Odds provided the largest boost (+21 points), reflecting the significant betting line disparity. Recent Win Percentage added 3 points, with Ramirez maintaining 80% compared to Davis's concerning 67% recent record. Multiple Striking Impact Differential metrics each contributed 1 point, suggesting Ramirez's leg-heavy approach creates more cumulative damage than Davis's recent output. Striking Defense Percentage slightly decreased confidence (-1 point), acknowledging Ramirez's vulnerability to the exact type of boxing combinations Davis specializes in.
WolfTicketsAI has never predicted Ramirez before, creating some uncertainty around his profile. However, the model shows mixed results with Davis - correctly predicting his wins over Levy (0.64 score) and Borshchev (0.77 score), but incorrectly favoring him against Ziam (0.55 score). The Ziam prediction failure is particularly relevant given Davis's compromised performance in that fight.
Despite Davis's superior boxing skills and grappling advantages, his recent physical limitations and Ramirez's specialized leg attack system create a dangerous stylistic matchup. Ramirez's calf kicks can neutralize Davis's pressure game while exploiting his flat-footed tendencies when loading up on power shots. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Ramirez reflects both the significant odds disparity and the technical reality that a compromised Davis facing a specialist leg kicker presents serious upset potential.
Stat | Mitch Ramirez | Mike Davis | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 32 | 32 | 32 | |
Height | 71" | 72" | 70" | |
Reach | 71" | 72" | 72" | |
Win Percentage | 80.00% | 78.57% | 79.37% | |
Wins | 8 | 12 | ||
Losses | 3 | 3 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 0 | 4 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 2 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 43.08% | 56.87% | 48.69% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 33.33% | 53.70% | 43.43% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.732 | 5.415 | 5.438 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.561 | 4.596 | 4.119 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.594 | 0.614 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -25.00% | -8.67% | 3.93% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -9.00% | -2.00% | 3.14% | |
Striking Output Differential | -7.00% | -35.83% | 5.54% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 9.00% | -29.50% | 4.52% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 67.86% | 115.61% | 81.70% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 87.50% | 133.62% | 102.47% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 35.90% | 56.36% | 48.54% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.594 | 0.463 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.000 | 2.972 | 1.483 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.000 | 5.943 | 3.861 | |
Takedown Defense | 0.00% | 81.82% | 80.51% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 0.00% | 50.00% | 30.65% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.390 | 2.958 | 2.530 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 3.122 | 6.287 | 6.487 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.976 | 2.958 | 2.289 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.488 | 1.189 | 0.927 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.683 | 1.691 | 1.296 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.293 | 0.792 | 0.834 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.683 | 0.449 | 0.663 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.878 | 0.581 | 0.787 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 1.171 | 1.004 | 0.606 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.293 | 0.396 | 0.414 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.293 | 0.489 | 0.571 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.195 | 0.370 | 0.383 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 16, 2024 | Lightweight | Thiago Moises | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Feb. 1, 2025 | Lightweight | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis | Fares Ziam | |
March 16, 2024 | Lightweight | Natan Levy | Mike Davis | Mike Davis | |
Oct. 1, 2022 | Lightweight | Mike Davis | Viacheslav Borshchev | Mike Davis | |
Jan. 20, 2021 | Lightweight | Mike Davis | Mason Jones | Mike Davis | |
Oct. 12, 2019 | Lightweight | Mike Davis | Thomas Gifford | Mike Davis | |
April 27, 2019 | Lightweight | Gilbert Burns | Mike Davis | Gilbert Burns |