Analysis: JJ Aldrich vs Veronica Hardy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts JJ Aldrich to Win

Score: 5 Odds: JJ Aldrich: 114 Veronica Hardy: -146

JJ Aldrich's Breakdown

JJ Aldrich is coming off an impressive KO/TKO victory over Liang Na in her last fight, showcasing her striking power. Prior to that she lost a close decision to the talented Ariane da Silva. Her striking defense and offensive wrestling have been strengths - she defends over 60% of significant strikes and averages over 3 takedown attempts per fight in her last 3 bouts. However, she will need to be wary of submissions, as she was submitted by Erin Blanchfield in 2022.

Veronica Hardy's Breakdown

Veronica Hardy just earned a hard-fought split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth, proving her toughness and cardio over 3 rounds. She's a dangerous submission threat, with over 0.5 submissions per fight in recent matches. Her takedown accuracy is lower at 36% but she is very active in attempting them, shooting for over 3.5 takedowns per fight recently. Striking defense is a potential weakness though, absorbing more significant strikes than she lands.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both fighters are willing to grapple, with Aldrich landing 0.84 takedowns per fight and Hardy 1.17 takedowns recently. Whoever can control position and threaten submissions may have the edge.
• Aldrich's striking defense is superior, defending 66% of significant strikes compared to just 49% for Hardy lately. JJ will need to punish Veronica if takedowns are stuffed.
• Hardy has more paths to victory with her submission skills, while Aldrich will likely need to keep it standing and win on points with a higher striking pace and defense.

Understanding the Prediction

• Striking Defense Percentage: JJ Aldrich's striking defense of 55% is significantly higher than Veronica Hardy's 39%, increasing the prediction score for Aldrich
• Recent Win Percentage: Both fighters have a 67% win rate in their last 3 fights, but Aldrich's wins are considered slightly more impressive by the model
• Odds: The Vegas odds slightly favor Hardy, but the model disagrees and sees value on Aldrich as an underdog
• Recent Significant Striking Defense: Aldrich defends 10% more significant strikes than Hardy in their recent fights, a key factor in the model's prediction

Past Model Performance

• The WolfTickets model has made 5 previous predictions on JJ Aldrich fights, going 3-2. The 2 incorrect picks were both as a moderate to heavy favorite though.
• For Veronica Hardy, the model has only 1 prior prediction, taking Juliana Miller over Hardy which proved incorrect. So the model has limited data on Hardy.

Conclusion

While Veronica Hardy's submission skills make her a live underdog, JJ Aldrich's superior striking and takedown defense give her more paths to victory, especially over 3 rounds. The model sees enough value to make a moderate 5 unit play on Aldrich at plus odds. But given the lack of prior predictions on Hardy, some caution is warranted in what could be a closely contested fight.