Analysis: Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mateusz Rebecki to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Diego Ferreira: 225 Mateusz Rebecki: -285

Diego Ferreira's Breakdown

Diego Ferreira is a seasoned UFC veteran with an 18-5 record, but he's coming off a brutal KO loss to Michael Johnson in his last fight. That loss snapped a two-fight win streak for Ferreira. His striking defense has been a liability, absorbing 2.42 head strikes per minute. Ferreira does have solid grappling skills though, averaging 0.71 submissions and takedowns per fight in his UFC career.

However, Ferreira's recent performances have been inconsistent. He's just 2-3 in his last 5 fights, with all 3 losses coming by KO/TKO. At 38 years old, there are questions about how much Ferreira has left in the tank. His recent striking defense percentage of just 51.98% is a major red flag against a dangerous striker like Rebecki.

Mateusz Rebecki's Breakdown

Mateusz Rebecki is a rising prospect with an impressive 18-1 record. He's a perfect 3-0 so far in the UFC with wins over Roosevelt Roberts, Loik Radzhabov, and Nick Fiore. Rebecki has shown devastating finishing ability, with 1.17 knockdowns and submissions per fight in the UFC.

Rebecki is an extremely well-rounded fighter. He lands a blistering 5.95 significant strikes per minute at 54.26% accuracy. But he's also a threat on the ground, averaging 3.50 takedowns per fight at an incredible 85.71% accuracy. Rebecki's striking defense has held up well too, as he absorbs just 1.63 head strikes per minute.

The 30-year-old Rebecki appears to be hitting his prime. His recent numbers are even better than his UFC averages, including 6.68 significant strikes and 3.36 takedowns landed per minute. Rebecki has the tools to finish this fight anywhere.

Understanding the Prediction

Here are some key factors from the SHAP data that explain WolfTicketsAI's prediction:

• Odds: The odds favoring Rebecki decreased the model's score by 11 points, showing heavy confidence in him to win.

• Reach: Rebecki's 66" reach compared to Ferreira's 74" increased the model score by 4 points, perhaps negating some of Ferreira's striking advantage.

• Recent Win Percentage: Rebecki's 100% win rate in his last 3 fights compared to Ferreira's 33% decreased the score by 2 points in Rebecki's favor.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ferreira's 11.14 differential is much lower than Rebecki's 32.67, decreasing the score by 1 point.

• Striking Defense Percentage: Ferreira's weak 52.79% striking defense compared to Rebecki's solid 56.98% decreased the score by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

The model has limited data on both fighters, but has been incorrect in its only past prediction for each. It predicted Ferreira to beat Michael Johnson and Radzhabov to beat Rebecki, but both picks were wrong.

With such a small sample size, it's hard to gauge the model's true accuracy on these fighters. But given Rebecki's dominant UFC performances so far, the model's strong pick for him seems justified.

Conclusion

Mateusz Rebecki looks poised for a breakout performance against the veteran Diego Ferreira. At age 30, Rebecki is 8 years younger and in the prime of his career. His elite striking and grappling numbers through 3 UFC fights have been incredibly impressive.

In contrast, the 38-year-old Ferreira is coming off a brutal KO loss and has struggled to a 2-3 record in his last 5 fights. His striking defense is a major concern against a precise, high-volume striker in Rebecki.

The model predicts Rebecki with a strong score of 15, and it's easy to see why based on the tale of the tape. While Ferreira certainly has a puncher's chance with his own solid striking skills, Rebecki has more paths to victory and looks like the clear pick to get his hand raised.