Analysis: Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Derrick Lewis to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Derrick Lewis: -155 Rodrigo Nascimento: 130

Derrick Lewis's Breakdown

Derrick Lewis is a powerhouse heavyweight known for his devastating knockout power. He holds the record for the most knockouts in UFC heavyweight history. Lewis's game is all about landing that one big shot to put his opponents away.

In his last fight against Jailton Almeida, Lewis struggled with Almeida's grappling and lost a unanimous decision. However, prior to that, he had an impressive KO win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima, showcasing his scary one-punch power.

Lewis does have some holes in his game, particularly when it comes to grappling defense and cardio. He has been submitted before when fighters have managed to take him down and control him on the mat. His striking defense can also be lacking at times. Of course, Lewis famously said "I don't believe in jiu-jitsu" and thinks he can always just stand up if he gets taken down. We'll see if that philosophy holds up against a grappler like Nascimento.

But when Lewis connects, few can take his power. He has ferocious ground and pound if he ends up on top, and vicious hooks and uppercuts when striking on the feet. If this fight stays standing, Lewis will have a big advantage with his ability to end the fight at any moment.

Rodrigo Nascimento's Breakdown

Rodrigo Nascimento is a Brazilian heavyweight prospect with a well-rounded skillset. He is currently on a three-fight win streak, with decision victories over Don'Tale Mayes, Ilir Latifi, and Tanner Boser.

Nascimento has a solid submission game, with submissions making up about half of his UFC wins so far. In his UFC debut, he submitted Don'Tale Mayes with a rear-naked choke in the second round. He'll be looking to prove to Lewis that jiu-jitsu is in fact very real in this fight.

On the feet, Nascimento has good muay thai and output. He lands nearly 6 significant strikes per minute, mixing together kicks and punches. He absorbed some damage in his last fight against Mayes but showed a good chin.

The key for Nascimento will be using his grappling to neutralize Lewis's power. If he can take Lewis down and control him or threaten with submissions, he could wear Lewis down and take over as the fight goes on. But he has to be very careful not to get caught on the feet.

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Lewis has the clear advantage on the feet with his KO power, while Nascimento will look to take it to the mat and show Lewis that jiu-jitsu is real.
• Nascimento's path to victory is through his wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He needs to close the distance carefully, secure a takedown, and work for control and submissions. He cannot afford to strike with Lewis for long.
• Lewis needs to keep this fight standing and land his bombs. His takedown defense will be tested, but if he can stuff Nascimento's attempts and force a boxing match, the fight is his to lose. If he does get taken down, we'll see if he can just stand up like he thinks he can.
• Cardio could play a big factor. If Nascimento can drag Lewis into deep waters and make him work, Lewis is known to slow down. Nascimento needs to survive the early onslaught though.

Understanding the Prediction

• The odds significantly favor Lewis which increased the model prediction score. Lewis being a -155 favorite shows the oddsmakers are backing his KO power to get it done.
• Lewis's higher significant striking metrics increased the prediction score. He lands more significant strikes per minute (2.43 vs 4.32) and has better striking accuracy (50% vs 48%), showing his striking advantage.
• Nascimento's recent takedown attempts decreased the score, indicating a possible path to victory for him. He attempts 5.13 takedowns per fight recently, which is his clearest way to win. We'll see if Lewis's skepticism of jiu-jitsu comes back to haunt him.

Past Model Performance

For Derrick Lewis, the model has been reasonably accurate but had two notable misses in the last 5 predictions: - It incorrectly predicted him to lose to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, but Lewis won by KO. - It incorrectly predicted him to beat Tai Tuivasa, but Lewis was KO'd.

For Rodrigo Nascimento, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting his last two wins. The one miss was predicting Tanner Boser to beat him, but Nascimento won a split decision.

Overall the model has performed decently for both fighters but has shown it can miss on Lewis in particular. Something to keep in mind when weighing this prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Derrick Lewis to win a tough matchup against Rodrigo Nascimento, giving him a score of 3. The odds favor Lewis and his striking power gives him a clear path to victory if he can keep it standing. However, Nascimento's grappling is a real threat that could turn the tables if he gets Lewis down, even if Lewis thinks he can just stand up. Lewis's inconsistent recent results and the danger of Nascimento's submissions make this a risky bet despite the model's solid score in Lewis's favor. Proceed with some caution, and let's see if Lewis's views on jiu-jitsu end up being validated or disproven in this fight.