Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Viacheslav Borshchev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Viacheslav Borshchev to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Chase Hooper: +144 Viacheslav Borshchev: -186

Chase Hooper's Breakdown

Chase Hooper has showcased a strong grappling game in his UFC career so far. In his most recent fight against Jordan Leavitt, Hooper secured a submission victory, displaying his ability to end fights on the ground. He's also shown versatility in his wins, with a knockout victory over Felipe Colares and a unanimous decision win against Nick Fiore.

However, Hooper has struggled when facing opponents who can stuff his takedown attempts and force him to strike. In his losses to Alex Caceres and Steven Peterson, Hooper was outstruck and unable to implement his grappling effectively. Hooper's striking defense has been a liability, absorbing 3.04 significant strikes per minute in his recent fights.

Viacheslav Borshchev's Breakdown

Viacheslav Borshchev is a formidable striker with knockout power. In his UFC debut, he finished Dakota Bush with a devastating body kick in the second round. Borshchev lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.51, giving him a positive striking differential.

Borshchev's takedown defense has held up well in the UFC so far, successfully defending 77% of takedown attempts against him. His ability to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking will be key against a grappler like Hooper.

However, Borshchev is coming off a majority decision draw against Nazim Sadykhov and a unanimous decision loss to Mike Davis in his last two fights. In those bouts, he was taken down multiple times and struggled to generate his usual striking output.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappler vs Striker Matchup: This fight pits Hooper's grappling prowess against Borshchev's striking skills. Hooper will likely look to take the fight to the ground early, while Borshchev aims to keep it standing.
• Hooper's Submission Threat: With 2.06 submission attempts per fight in the UFC, Hooper is always a threat to end the fight if he can secure a dominant position on the ground.
• Borshchev's Knockout Power: Borshchev has heavy hands and feet, with 1.06 knockdowns per fight in the UFC. If he can land cleanly on Hooper, it could be lights out.
• Hooper's Takedown Accuracy: While Hooper attempts a high volume of takedowns at 6.93 per fight, his accuracy is only 24%. He'll need to improve that against Borshchev's solid takedown defense.
• Borshchev's Recent Struggles: Borshchev hasn't won in his last two fights and was controlled on the ground for extended periods. Hooper could exploit that weakness.

Understanding the Prediction

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: This factor favors Hooper, who attempts 7.57 takedowns per fight in his recent bouts compared to Borshchev's 0.
• Odds: The odds favor Borshchev as a -186 favorite, indicating the market sees him as a strong pick.
• Reach: Hooper will enjoy a 5-inch reach advantage, which could help him in grappling exchanges and maintaining distance on the feet.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Hooper only defends 31% of significant strikes against him, while Borshchev defends at a much higher 57% rate. This could be a major factor if Hooper can't get the fight to the ground.

Past Model Performance

• In Hooper's last 4 fights, WolfTickets predicted correctly 2 times (50% accuracy).
• In Borshchev's last 4 fights, WolfTickets predicted correctly 2 times (50% accuracy).
• The model has struggled to consistently predict both fighters, adding some uncertainty to this pick.

Conclusion

The outcome of this fight will likely hinge on where the majority of the contest takes place. If Hooper can drag Borshchev into his world of grappling, he has a clear path to victory by submission. Conversely, if Borshchev can stuff the takedowns and force Hooper to trade strikes, his knockout power gives him a huge edge.

WolfTicketsAI sees Borshchev as the more likely winner, but Hooper's grappling X-factor makes him a live underdog. The model's past performance also introduces some doubt. Overall, this shapes up as a fascinating clash of styles between two promising prospects looking to make a statement.