Analysis: Charles Johnson vs Jake Hadley

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jake Hadley to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Charles Johnson: 135 Jake Hadley: -165

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Charles Johnson is a seasoned veteran of the UFC's flyweight division, with a respectable record of 4 wins and 3 losses. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rafael Estevam in his last fight, but prior to that had a split decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.

Johnson is primarily a striker, averaging 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute at a 60.9% accuracy. He has good defensive wrestling, with a 57.9% takedown defense ratio. However, he's been susceptible to head strikes, absorbing 1.43 per minute.

In his win over Zhumagulov, Johnson showed excellent striking defense, avoiding many of Zhumagulov's shots while landing his own crisp combinations. But in his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, he struggled with Mokaev's wrestling, giving up takedowns and control time.

Jake Hadley's Breakdown

Jake Hadley is a rising prospect in the flyweight division with a 2-2 UFC record. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Cody Durden, but before that he had an impressive first round KO win over Malcolm Gordon.

Hadley is a well-rounded fighter with dangerous submissions, averaging 1.94 submissions per fight. He's landed 3.47 significant strikes per minute at a 44.4% accuracy. Hadley's takedown defense has been stellar at 175%.

In his win over Gordon, Hadley showcased his grappling skills, taking Gordon's back and sinking in a rear-naked choke for the finish. But in his loss to Allan Nascimento, he was outstruck on the feet and struggled to implement his wrestling.

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a matchup of a veteran striker in Johnson against a rising grappler in Hadley. Johnson will want to keep this fight standing, while Hadley will look for takedowns.
• Hadley's submission threat could be a major factor. If he can get Johnson to the mat, he has the skills to end the fight.
• Johnson's striking defense will be crucial. He needs to avoid Hadley's shots and make him pay on the counter.
• Cardio could play a role if this goes into the later rounds. Both men have gone the distance multiple times.

Understanding the Prediction

• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hadley has a significant advantage here with 1.25 compared to Johnson's 17.57. This suggests Hadley lands the more impactful strikes.
• TrueSkill: The model sees Hadley as the more skilled fighter overall, with a higher TrueSkill rating.
• Recent Win Percentage: Johnson only has a 33% win rate in his last few fights, compared to 67% for Hadley. The model sees Hadley as having more momentum.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Hadley has the edge defensively, with a 51.7% strike defense compared to 48.7% for Johnson. He's statistically harder to hit.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters.

For Johnson, it correctly predicted his wins over Jimmy Flick and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, but incorrectly picked against him in his loss to Azat Maksum.

With Hadley, the model has been less accurate, incorrectly picking him to beat Cody Durden in his last fight. However, it did correctly predict his wins over Malcolm Gordon and Carlos Candelario.

Given the model's recent inaccuracy on Hadley, there is some risk to the current prediction.

Conclusion

While Charles Johnson is the more experienced fighter, Jake Hadley has the grappling skills and physical tools to emerge victorious here. If Hadley can weather Johnson's early striking and secure takedowns, he has a clear path to victory via submission.

However, if Johnson can maintain distance, avoid the takedowns, and punish Hadley with counters, he could sway the judges with his striking volume. It's an intriguing style matchup, but ultimately Hadley's youth, athleticism and submission prowess lead the model to predict he will get his hand raised.