Analysis: Billy Goff vs Trey Waters

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Trey Waters to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Billy Goff: 140 Trey Waters: -170

Billy Goff's Breakdown

Billy Goff is coming off an impressive KO/TKO victory over Yusaku Kinoshita in his UFC debut. He showcased powerful striking, landing 3.93 knockdowns per fight on average. Goff has solid takedown defense, successfully defending all takedowns attempted against him so far in his UFC career. His striking output is high, landing 11.27 strikes per minute, with 10.48 of those being significant strikes.

However, Goff absorbs a fair amount of strikes as well, taking 3.93 head strikes per minute. His striking defense percentage of 67.92% leaves room for improvement. With only one UFC fight, it remains to be seen how Goff will fare against higher level competition.

Trey Waters's Breakdown

Trey Waters is riding high after a unanimous decision win over Josh Quinlan in his last outing. He effectively mixed his striking with wrestling, landing a takedown and attempting 2 per fight on average. Waters' striking is technical and efficient, landing 6.93 significant strikes per minute at 51.23% accuracy.

Defensively, Waters holds his own, absorbing only 1.73 head strikes per minute with a solid 60.94% striking defense percentage. He maintains a strong striking and significant striking output differential over his opponents. With an 88.89% UFC win rate, Waters has proven himself a formidable contender in the welterweight division.

Analysis and Key Points

• Goff's power striking vs Waters' technical approach: This bout pits Goff's explosive striking against Waters' more measured and diverse skill set. Goff will look to land heavy shots early, while Waters will aim to keep Goff at range and mix in timely takedowns.

• Defensive capabilities will be tested: Both fighters land more significant strikes than they absorb, but Waters holds the edge in striking defense percentage. Goff's chin and ability to avoid Waters' precise strikes will be crucial.

• Waters' wrestling could be a difference maker: While Goff has yet to be taken down in the UFC, Waters has shown an ability to land takedowns and control opponents on the mat. If Waters can drag Goff into grappling exchanges, it could sway the fight in his favor.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds favor Waters at -170, indicating he is the betting favorite. This aligns with the model's prediction and decreases the prediction score by 6.0.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Waters holds the advantage in recent significant striking impact differential, landing 54 more significant strikes than he absorbs. This decreases the prediction score favoring Goff by 2.0.

• TrueSkill: Waters' higher TrueSkill rating of 31.62 compared to Goff's 25.0 increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 3.0.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Waters' 2.0 takedowns attempted per fight compared to Goff's 3.93 increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 2.0, suggesting his wrestling could play a role.

• Striking Defense Percentage: Waters' superior striking defense percentage of 60.94% compared to Goff's 67.92% increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 2.0.

Past Model Performance

The model did not make any past predictions for either Goff or Waters to compare against, so there is no past performance to analyze. This lack of historical data for the model on these fighters does introduce some uncertainty into the prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Trey Waters to defeat Billy Goff, giving him a 12 point edge. The model favors Waters' more well-rounded skill set, superior striking defense, and potential to mix in wrestling. Waters' higher TrueSkill rating and the betting odds also align with this pick.

However, Goff's explosive power striking and solid takedown defense make him a live underdog. If Goff can land cleanly on Waters early, he could score an upset KO.

Ultimately, Waters' more proven UFC track record and ability to win fights in various ways give him the edge in what should be an exciting welterweight clash. While Waters is the model's pick, be cautious with any wagers given the lack of past prediction data for these fighters.