Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Carlos Ulberg

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Carlos Ulberg to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Alonzo Menifield: 170 Carlos Ulberg: -210

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield is a powerful striker with 8 KO/TKO wins in the UFC. He throws heavy shots, notably knocking out Misha Cirkunov and Vinicius Moreira in the first round. Menifield has solid takedown defense, stuffing 70% of attempts. However, his striking defense is a liability, absorbing 3.35 significant strikes per minute. This cost him in losses to Ovince Saint Preux (KO) and Devin Clark (decision). Menifield's aggression can be used against him by skilled counter strikers.

Carlos Ulberg's Breakdown

Carlos Ulberg is a technical kickboxer with precise and varied striking. He mixes punches and kicks smoothly, landing 7.40 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy. Ulberg's defense is also sound, evading 51% of opponents' significant strike attempts. He's finished his last 3 fights by KO/TKO, including a head kick KO of Tafon Nchukwi. Ulberg's only loss was an early career KO to the dangerous Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since then, his fight IQ and shot selection have clearly improved.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Matchup: Ulberg has a sizeable advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense. Expect him to pick Menifield apart at range.
• Power vs Precision: Menifield's path to victory is landing a big shot early. But Ulberg is far more technically sound and should be able to avoid the kill shot.
• Grappling: Neither fighter attempts many takedowns. This should remain a kickboxing match unless someone gets hurt.
• Fight IQ: Ulberg is the more patient and methodical fighter. Menifield needs to be mindful of his cardio if he comes out aggressively.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds strongly favor Ulberg, decreasing the model score for Menifield. The betting market sees Ulberg as a clear favorite.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ulberg lands 28.67 more impactful significant strikes per bout, a massive edge decreasing Menifield's chances.
• Recent Win Percentage: Menifield has won his last 3 fights, a factor increasing his model score. But all of Ulberg's UFC wins are also in his last 5 fights.
• TrueSkill: The model's proprietary TrueSkill metric slightly favors Ulberg, increasing his chances of victory.

Past Model Performance

• The WolfTickets model has correctly predicted the winner in 5 of Ulberg's 6 UFC fights (83%).
• It has a shakier record on Menifield, going 2 for 4 (50%). The model did correctly pick him to beat Crute and Cirkunov in his last 2 wins.
• Given Ulberg's historical results, there is good reason to trust the model's projection in this matchup.

Conclusion

Carlos Ulberg is a stylistic nightmare for Alonzo Menifield. The kickboxer's diverse and high-volume striking should overwhelm Menifield's beatable defense. Unless Menifield can land a haymaker early, expect Ulberg to take over as the fight progresses and earn a late finish or clear decision. The model, the odds, and the underlying data all point to a convincing Ulberg victory.