UFC Event Results

May 11, 2024

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento

St. Louis, Missouri, United States
142.00m Elevation

Model Performance Summary (% Correct)

WTAI Model

Main: 66.67% Under: 50.0% Full: 58.33%

Profit Model

Main: 66.67% Under: 50.0% Full: 58.33%

Plain Model

Main: 50.0% Under: 66.67% Full: 58.33%

Selected Bets Results

ROI: %

Parlay #1

Carlos Ulberg

Win

-220

Strength: 18.0 points
EV: 10.4%

Mateusz Rebecki

Win

-295

Strength: 15.0 points
EV: 0.5%

Robelis Despaigne

Win

-180

Strength: 11.0 points
EV: 5.9%

Total Odds

3.03x

Return on $10 Bet

$20.30

Parlay #2

Rodrigo Nascimento

Win

-172

Strength: 3.0 points
EV: -8.1%

Sean Woodson

Win

-200

Strength: 16.0 points
EV: 9.5%

Esteban Ribovics

Win

-210

Strength: 8.0 points
EV: 1.4%

Veronica Hardy

Win

+114

Strength: 5.0 points
EV: 13.4%

Total Odds

7.49x

Return on $10 Bet

$64.94

Parlay #3

Trey Waters

Win

-184

Strength: 12.0 points
EV: 8.4%

Jake Hadley

Win

-174

Strength: 3.0 points
EV: -8.3%

Total Odds

2.43x

Return on $10 Bet

$14.31

The tables below show how the model predictions performed. Confidence scores indicate the model's certainty.

Correct predictions are shown in normal text, incorrect predictions are highlighted in red.

WTAI = WTAI Model Profit = Profit Model Plain = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
W
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Derrick Lewis
3
12
-8.1
-172
Rodrigo Nascimento
0
+134
Joaquin Buckley
1
12
-7.3
-170
Nursulton Ruziboev
11
+132
Alonzo Menifield
0
+168
Carlos Ulberg
18
14
10.4
-220
Diego Ferreira
2
2
+220
Mateusz Rebecki
15
0.5
-295
Alex Caceres
2
+154
Sean Woodson
16
1
9.5
-200
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1
+140
Robelis Despaigne
11
26
5.9
-180

Fight Analysis Recap

Click on any fight below to expand the detailed AI analysis and SHAP chart explaining the prediction.