Analysis: Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joanderson Brito to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Pat Sabatini: 180
Joanderson Brito: -235

Pat Sabatini's Breakdown

Sabatini brings elite grappling credentials to this matchup with a black belt under Daniel Gracie. His UFC career has been defined by his relentless wrestling and submission game. Against Jonathan Pearce last month, Sabatini showcased his submission prowess with a clean finish, demonstrating his ability to chain wrestling with BJJ.

What makes Sabatini dangerous is his methodical approach to grappling. Against Lucas Almeida, he executed beautiful trips along the fence before securing an arm-triangle choke. His single-leg takedowns are his bread and butter, averaging nearly 4 takedowns per fight with impressive 44% accuracy.

However, Sabatini has shown vulnerability to explosive strikers. Diego Lopes knocked him out in just 1:30 of the first round in 2023, preventing Sabatini from establishing his grappling. Similarly, Damon Jackson caught him with a front kick to the face for a quick TKO in 2022. These losses expose a clear weakness against fighters who can keep him at distance and land power shots early.

Joanderson Brito's Breakdown

Brito is a first-round nightmare with explosive power and speed that has led to multiple quick finishes. His KO of Andre Fili in just 40 seconds demonstrates his ability to overwhelm technically sound strikers before they can establish rhythm. But Brito is more than just a power puncher.

Against Jonathan Pearce, Brito showed impressive defensive grappling, turning a bad position into a "ninja choke" submission victory. When Pearce overcommitted to a takedown, Brito capitalized immediately—proving he remains dangerous even in compromised positions.

Brito's calf kicks were devastating against Jack Shore, causing a doctor's stoppage. His pressure style forces opponents against the cage where his kicks and power punches become even more effective. His takedown defense has improved significantly, with excellent underhook usage to neutralize clinch entries.

While Brito recently lost a split decision to William Gomis, his aggressive forward pressure and high output remain his calling cards. His recent takedown attempts have increased to 4.34 per fight with an impressive 80% accuracy.

Analysis and Key Points

• Early danger zone - Brito's first-round finishing ability (as seen against Fili) presents immediate danger for Sabatini, who has been finished quickly twice.
• Grappling chess match - If Sabatini secures takedowns, Brito has shown submission threat from bottom position (as against Wilson).
• Cage control battle - Both fighters excel with fence pressure but in different ways: Sabatini for takedowns, Brito for trapping opponents for strikes.
• Recent form favors Brito - Sabatini is 3-2 in his last 5 UFC fights with two first-round KO losses, while Brito is 4-1 with three finishes.
• Reach advantage - Brito's 2-inch reach advantage (72" vs 70") could be significant in keeping Sabatini at distance.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds decreased the model's score by 9.0, showing Sabatini is a significant underdog
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight increased the prediction score by 6.0, highlighting Brito's improved wrestling
• Recent win percentage increased the score by 3.0, with Brito winning 4 of his last 5
• Striking impact differential and significant striking output differential each increased the score by 1.0, showing Brito's striking advantage
• Reach advantage of 2 inches for Brito increased the score by 1.0

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been inconsistent predicting Sabatini fights, going 2-3 overall. The model correctly predicted his wins over Lucas Almeida and TJ Laramie, but missed on his recent submission victory over Jonathan Pearce and his losses to Diego Lopes and Damon Jackson.

For Brito, the model has been more successful with a 2-1 record, correctly predicting his wins over Jonathan Pearce and Andre Fili, but missing his recent split decision loss to William Gomis.

Conclusion

Brito's explosive striking, improved takedown defense, and dangerous counter-submission game make him the rightful favorite. Sabatini's vulnerability to early knockouts plays directly into Brito's first-round finishing power. While Sabatini's grappling remains elite, Brito's pressure style and ability to remain dangerous even when taken down should lead him to victory in this matchup.