The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Dione Barbosa
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Final Confidence: 18.36
Value: +20.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%
Value: -10.0%
Reason: Predicted winner is moving up in weight for the first time
Weight Change: Moving up in weight (from Women's Strawweight to Women's Flyweight)
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 17
Odds:
Diana Belbita: +400
Dione Barbosa: -620
Belbita enters this flyweight bout with a concerning trajectory, having lost three of her last four UFC fights. Her most recent outings exposed significant weaknesses in her game. Against Molly McCann in February 2024, Belbita showed alarming passivity, primarily covering up and walking forward without purpose. This defensive shell proved ineffective as McCann landed clean combinations before securing an armbar submission.
Against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Belbita struggled with distance management. Her jabs and crosses, typically her bread and butter, were neutralized by Kowalkiewicz's superior lateral movement and leg kicks. When Belbita does find success, it comes from her technical striking and opportunistic grappling, as seen in her win over Maria Oliveira where she controlled the pace and secured a unanimous decision.
A critical issue in Belbita's game is her vulnerability to submissions. Both McCann and Liana Jojua exploited this weakness, with Jojua securing a first-round armbar back in 2020. Her takedown defense has been problematic throughout her UFC career, with opponents repeatedly getting her to the ground where her defensive grappling falls short.
Barbosa brings a strong grappling pedigree to this matchup with black belts in both Judo and Jiu-Jitsu. Though she's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Miranda Maverick, that fight highlighted how Barbosa struggles when kept at distance and denied takedown opportunities.
Where Barbosa shines is in clinch control and ground dominance. Against Ernesta Kareckaite, she effectively used body locks and inside trips to get the fight to the ground. Her crab ride position proved particularly effective, allowing her to control Kareckaite while threatening submissions. This grappling-heavy approach is her clear path to victory.
Barbosa's pressure tactics force opponents against the cage where she initiates clinch exchanges. Her ability to maintain control in these positions allows her to dictate the pace and location of the fight. While her striking continues to develop, it's her grappling acumen that serves as her primary weapon.
Stylistic mismatch: Belbita's defensive vulnerabilities align perfectly with Barbosa's offensive strengths. Barbosa's clinch work and takedown game will likely neutralize Belbita's striking.
Submission vulnerability: Belbita has been submitted twice in the UFC (McCann and Jojua), while Barbosa excels at finding submission opportunities once she gets the fight to the ground.
Pressure fighting: Barbosa's forward pressure will likely force Belbita into her defensive shell, similar to what happened against McCann.
Technical grappling edge: Barbosa's crab ride position and ground control should prove effective against Belbita's limited defensive grappling.
Warning sign: Belbita has lost 3 of her last 5 fights, showing a concerning downward trend in her UFC career.
The model's confidence in Barbosa comes primarily from statistical advantages:
WolfTicketsAI has correctly predicted Belbita's last two losses against Molly McCann and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. However, the model incorrectly predicted Belbita would defeat Gloria de Paula in 2022. For Barbosa, the model correctly predicted Miranda Maverick would defeat her in their July 2024 bout.
The model's accuracy in predicting Belbita's recent performances adds credibility to its current prediction favoring Barbosa.
Barbosa's grappling credentials and clinch control present a significant challenge for Belbita, who has repeatedly struggled against opponents with strong takedown and submission skills. Expect Barbosa to pressure Belbita against the fence, secure takedowns, and control the fight on the ground. The betting odds strongly favor Barbosa for good reason, and WolfTicketsAI's analysis confirms this matchup heavily favors the Brazilian grappler.
| Stat | Diana Belbita | Dione Barbosa | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 28 | 32 | 31 | |
| Height | 67" | 66" | 66" | |
| Reach | 68" | 66" | 67" | |
| Win Percentage | 62.50% | 70.00% | 76.16% | |
| Wins | 15 | 8 | ||
| Losses | 10 | 3 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 0 | 1 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 2 | 1 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 46.73% | 64.11% | 49.16% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 42.60% | 48.78% | 41.68% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.872 | 4.467 | 5.716 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.542 | 2.000 | 3.822 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.265 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 2.71% | -34.00% | 3.37% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | -0.14% | -11.50% | 3.21% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 23.29% | -99.50% | 3.48% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 20.86% | -60.50% | 3.31% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 91.86% | 153.73% | 79.93% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 107.58% | 268.33% | 108.75% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 51.78% | 65.98% | 50.11% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.571 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.907 | 1.500 | 1.394 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 1.451 | 6.500 | 3.351 | |
| Takedown Defense | 52.00% | 100.00% | 64.20% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 62.50% | 23.08% | 36.71% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.736 | 1.333 | 2.362 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 11.717 | 3.200 | 6.478 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 4.583 | 1.600 | 2.098 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.705 | 0.500 | 0.893 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 2.370 | 0.700 | 1.291 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.536 | 0.500 | 0.798 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.100 | 0.167 | 0.567 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.270 | 0.200 | 0.714 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.435 | 0.667 | 0.557 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.992 | 0.133 | 0.444 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.330 | 0.133 | 0.603 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.774 | 0.100 | 0.454 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 3, 2024 | Women's Strawweight | Molly McCann | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann | |
| Oct. 7, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | |
| June 10, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Diana Belbita | Maria Oliveira | Diana Belbita | |
| Feb. 19, 2022 | Women's Strawweight | Diana Belbita | Gloria de Paula | Gloria de Paula | |
| July 24, 2021 | Women's Strawweight | Diana Belbita | Hannah Goldy | Diana Belbita | |
| July 15, 2020 | Women's Flyweight | Diana Belbita | Liana Jojua | Liana Jojua | |
| Oct. 18, 2019 | Women's Flyweight | Molly McCann | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 20, 2024 | Women's Flyweight | Miranda Maverick | Dione Barbosa | Miranda Maverick | |
| May 4, 2024 | Women's Flyweight | Dione Barbosa | Ernesta Kareckaite | Dione Barbosa |