Analysis: Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Anthony Hernandez to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Roman Dolidze: +265
Anthony Hernandez: -370

Roman Dolidze's Breakdown

Dolidze brings a power-punching approach built around his signature overhand right, which he throws with minimal setup but devastating effect. Against Marvin Vettori, he landed this technique repeatedly throughout five rounds, eventually wearing down his opponent despite its predictable nature. His spinning back elbows create effective counters in southpaw matchups, as demonstrated when he caught Vettori leading with his left hand.

On the ground, Dolidze's K-guard system and leg attack entries remain dangerous. Against Jack Hermansson, he used his feet on the hips from guard to create space, then employed well-timed elbows to force Hermansson to bury his head, allowing him to secure the "anchor" position under the leg. This led to a calf slicer that put Hermansson belly-down with no intelligent defense. His clinch-to-striking transitions also proved effective against Kyle Daukaus, where he initiated clinch positions knowing Daukaus would break away, then timed a perfect left hook on the exit followed by a fight-ending knee against the fence.

Roman Dolidze's Technical Vulnerabilities

Dolidze's most glaring weakness is his one-dimensional striking approach. He relies almost exclusively on the wide overhand right without jabs or feints to set it up, making his entries highly readable. Against Nassourdine Imavov, this predictability became problematic as Imavov's superior footwork and technical striking exposed Dolidze's limited arsenal. When opponents aren't intimidated by his power, he struggles to adapt his approach.

His takedown game lacks reliability despite his dangerous ground skills. Against Imavov, he repeatedly pushed his opponent to the fence but couldn't convert these positions into actual takedowns, wasting energy on ineffective clinch control. When his confidence wanes—particularly after failing to land his power shots early—Dolidze tends to mentally disengage, as seen in the Imavov fight where he resorted to passive clinch stalling.

Anthony Hernandez's Breakdown

Hernandez has developed a specialized ground control system that revolves around single hook rides and cross-body positioning against the fence. His signature technique involves maintaining one hook while controlling the opponent's far wrist, allowing him to generate consistent ground and pound. Against Michel Pereira in their first encounter, this approach proved devastating as he maintained relentless striking pressure from this position.

His cradle technique has become nearly unstoppable when opponents attempt to stand along the fence. Against Brendan Allen, he successfully executed this technique approximately three times, threading his arm over the head and under the elevated leg before dragging them back to the mat. Even when Allen came specifically prepared for this technique, Hernandez still found success with it. His 1-3-2 combination (jab-left hook-right straight) effectively disrupts opponents' rhythm while setting up his takedown entries, as demonstrated against Edmen Shahbazyan.

Anthony Hernandez's Technical Vulnerabilities

Hernandez shows consistent early-fight fragility, often appearing hittable and vulnerable before finding his rhythm. Against Brendan Allen, this pattern allowed Allen to establish early striking dominance before the fight transitioned to grappling. Kevin Holland exploited this vulnerability perfectly, landing a flush elbow to the temple followed by a knee to the midsection that ended the fight at 0:39 of Round 1.

His entire control system becomes compromised when opponents actively fight his wrist control. In the Allen rematch, Allen's persistent hand-fighting prevented Hernandez from establishing the wrist control necessary for his ground striking, significantly diminishing his offensive output. When opponents roll toward the center to escape his single hook position—accepting back exposure to avoid the punishing strikes—Hernandez struggles to maintain his preferred control positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Dolidze's power-punching approach and Hernandez's pressure-grappling system. Dolidze's wide overhand right could potentially exploit Hernandez's early-fight vulnerability, similar to how Holland caught him with the temple elbow. However, Hernandez's relentless forward pressure and takedown attempts directly counter Dolidze's tendency to throw single-shot techniques.

Hernandez's cradle technique could prove particularly effective against Dolidze's wrestling background, as Dolidze often finds himself in scramble positions where the cradle becomes available. Conversely, Dolidze's K-guard system from bottom position could create problems for Hernandez's top control game, potentially forcing him into defensive grappling rather than his preferred offensive positions.

The key technical battle will be whether Dolidze can land his power shots before Hernandez establishes his grinding pace and pressure. Hernandez's 1-3-2 combination could also disrupt Dolidze's timing for the overhand right, while his takedown attempts force Dolidze into grappling exchanges where his predictable striking becomes less relevant.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Dolidze's power-punching approach, especially given Hernandez's documented early-fight vulnerability. Dolidze's best path to victory involves landing his overhand right or spinning back elbow before Hernandez can establish his grinding pace.

Mid-fight adjustments will be crucial as Hernandez typically finds his rhythm and begins implementing his pressure system. If Dolidze fails to secure early damage, Hernandez's superior cardio and relentless pace should begin to take effect. The cradle technique becomes increasingly available as Dolidze potentially tires from defending takedowns.

Championship rounds heavily favor Hernandez's conditioning and grinding approach. His ability to maintain high-output grappling while Dolidze's confidence and power typically diminish in extended exchanges gives him a significant late-fight advantage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Early vulnerability vs power shots: Hernandez's documented fragility in opening exchanges plays directly into Dolidze's overhand right strength • Wrist control battle: Hernandez's entire system depends on controlling the far wrist - if Dolidze fights his hands like Allen did, it neutralizes much of Hernandez's offense • Cardio differential: Hernandez's superior conditioning should become increasingly important as the fight progresses • Takedown reliability: Dolidze's struggles to secure takedowns against Imavov suggest Hernandez's pressure could keep this standing longer than expected • Ground position preferences: Both fighters prefer different aspects of ground fighting - Dolidze's K-guard vs Hernandez's single hook rides creates interesting scramble potential

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Hernandez stems primarily from the odds differential, which decreased the prediction score by 16 points, reflecting the significant betting line disparity. Recent takedowns attempted per fight decreased the score by 4 points, suggesting Dolidze's takedown volume works against him in this matchup. However, Hernandez's recent win percentage increased the model's confidence by 3 points, reflecting his perfect recent record compared to Dolidze's mixed results.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed 4-4 record predicting Dolidze, with notable misses on his upset victories over Kevin Holland and Jack Hermansson where it favored his opponents. However, it correctly predicted his losses to Imavov and Vettori. For Hernandez, the model shows perfect 5-0 accuracy, correctly predicting all his recent victories including upset wins over Shahbazyan and Pereira. This perfect track record on Hernandez provides additional confidence in the prediction.

Conclusion

Despite Dolidze's dangerous early-fight power and Hernandez's documented vulnerability in opening exchanges, WolfTicketsAI's prediction favors Hernandez's grinding, pressure-based approach to overwhelm Dolidze's one-dimensional striking over the course of the fight. The model's perfect record on Hernandez combined with his superior cardio and specialized ground control system should prove decisive if he can survive the early storm.