Analysis: Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Elijah Smith to Win

Score: 28
Odds:
Elijah Smith: -770
Toshiomi Kazama: +470

Elijah Smith's Breakdown

Smith brings a technically sound grappling game built around his signature Darce choke system. Against Vince Morales, he demonstrated his evolving submission arsenal by first attempting the short-arm Darce variation popularized by Islam Makhachev before transitioning to the traditional full Darce when his opponent defended. His jab-based entries create effective setups for both striking combinations and takedown attempts, particularly his Osoto Gari trips after establishing striking exchanges.

Smith's takedown accuracy sits at 75% with 3 takedowns per fight, showing he can consistently get fights to the ground. His submission rate of 1.0 per fight indicates he's dangerous once the fight hits the mat. The key technical evolution Smith showed against Morales was his ability to make mid-fight adjustments, switching from the short-arm to full Darce grip when his initial approach was defended.

Elijah Smith's Technical Vulnerabilities

Smith's primary vulnerability lies in his first-round defensive lapses. Against Morales, he absorbed significant damage early before finding his rhythm, showing a tendency to engage in firefights before establishing his preferred pace. His striking defense percentage of 53.3% reflects this early-round vulnerability to clean shots.

During grappling transitions, Smith occasionally leaves himself open to counter-submissions. Against Morales, he nearly got caught in a German necktie variant while pursuing his own submission attempts, indicating positional awareness issues during scrambles. His willingness to engage in early striking exchanges before implementing his grappling game creates unnecessary damage accumulation.

Toshiomi Kazama's Breakdown

Kazama's fighting style centers around his brown belt jiu-jitsu credentials and submission threats, evidenced by his 1.28 submissions per fight. His defining moment came against Charalampos Grigoriou, where he survived a devastating left hand that dropped him in round two, then capitalized on his opponent's fatigue to secure a triangle choke finish at 1:55. This demonstrated exceptional survival skills and opportunistic finishing ability.

However, Kazama's recent UFC record tells a concerning story. He's been finished twice by strikes - knocked out in 33 seconds by Rinya Nakamura after rushing forward into a pull-counter left hook, and TKO'd by Garrett Armfield's jab-jab-straight combination. His takedown accuracy of just 9.1% despite attempting 14 takedowns per fight shows he struggles to implement his grappling game against prepared opponents.

Toshiomi Kazama's Technical Vulnerabilities

Kazama's striking defense is severely compromised, absorbing 5.97 head strikes per minute with only a 38.7% striking defense percentage. Against Armfield, he couldn't handle the jab-to-body-jab-to-right-hand sequence, getting dropped and finished. His tendency to rush forward aggressively, as seen against Nakamura, leaves him vulnerable to counters.

His takedown struggles are equally concerning - despite attempting over 14 takedowns per fight, his 9.1% accuracy suggests opponents easily stuff his entries. Against higher-level wrestlers, this becomes a critical flaw. His recent significant striking impact differential of -14.06 shows he's taking far more damage than he's giving in striking exchanges.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Smith's jab-based entries should find success against Kazama's porous striking defense. Where Armfield used jab combinations to keep Kazama at bay, Smith can use similar setups to establish his takedowns. Kazama's 38.7% striking defense percentage suggests he'll struggle with Smith's more measured approach compared to his own tendency to rush forward.

The grappling exchanges favor Smith significantly. While both fighters hunt submissions, Smith's 75% takedown accuracy versus Kazama's 9.1% suggests Smith will control where the fight takes place. Kazama's triangle choke against Grigoriou came after surviving heavy damage - a luxury he's unlikely to have against Smith's more controlled grappling approach.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds should see Smith weather any initial aggression from Kazama before establishing his jab and takedown game. Unlike Kazama's previous opponents who engaged in firefights, Smith's more patient approach should neutralize Kazama's early rush tactics.

Mid-fight, Smith's superior takedown accuracy should allow him to control the pace and positioning. Kazama's recent struggles getting takedowns (6.22 attempts per fight with poor success rate) suggest he'll be fighting off his back rather than implementing his own grappling.

Championship rounds become academic if Smith can establish early control, as his submission rate and positional dominance should create finishing opportunities.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Defense Gap: Kazama's 38.7% defense versus Smith's more measured approach creates clear openings • Takedown Disparity: Smith's 75% accuracy versus Kazama's 9.1% shows who controls fight location
• Recent Form: Smith coming off a submission win while Kazama has been finished twice recently • Damage Absorption: Kazama's -14.06 recent significant striking impact differential shows he's taking excessive damage

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems primarily from the odds differential, which increased the prediction score by 24 points - the largest single factor. Smith's Significant Striking Impact Differential (+3) and Striking Defense Percentage (+3) reflect his more sound defensive fundamentals compared to Kazama's vulnerabilities. The Recent Win Percentage (+2) factor accounts for Smith's superior recent form versus Kazama's struggles.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed 1-1 record predicting Kazama, correctly picking his submission win over Grigoriou but missing his TKO loss to Armfield. The model has no prior predictions on Smith, creating some uncertainty, but the statistical disparities strongly favor the newcomer.

Conclusion

Smith's technical advantages across striking defense, takedown accuracy, and submission finishing create multiple paths to victory against Kazama's compromised defensive game. With Kazama absorbing heavy damage in recent fights and struggling to implement his takedown game, Smith should control the fight's location and pace en route to a submission victory. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Smith reflects the clear technical and statistical advantages favoring the rising prospect.