Analysis: Cody Brundage vs Eric McConico

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Eric McConico to Win

Score: 0.0
Odds:
Cody Brundage: -196
Eric McConico: +152

Cody Brundage's Breakdown

Brundage brings a wrestling-heavy approach with developing power striking, but his recent form tells a concerning story. He's lost 2 of his last 3 UFC fights, including a brutal submission loss to Bo Nickal where he was completely outclassed. Against Julian Marquez, Brundage showed his signature technique—backing to the fence and uncorking a devastating overhand right counter that dropped Marquez cold in the first round. This counter-striking power remains his most dangerous weapon.

His wrestling foundation centers around explosive single-leg entries, typically set up after right-hand combinations. Against Zachary Reese, Brundage demonstrated improved fight IQ when he escaped an armbar by lifting Reese off the ground and slamming him to the canvas for a TKO finish. However, his takedown defense has been exploited repeatedly—Nickal "ran through" him with superior wrestling, and Sedriques Dumas caught him in a guillotine after a poorly executed takedown attempt.

Brundage's striking has evolved from pure wrestling setups to legitimate knockout power. His overhand right generates significant force even while backing up, as evidenced by the Marquez finish. He chains this with level changes effectively, using the striking threat to create wrestling opportunities.

Cody Brundage's Technical Vulnerabilities

Brundage's most glaring vulnerability is his defensive positioning when pressured. He consistently backs straight to the fence rather than circling laterally, creating predictable patterns for opponents to exploit. Against Dumas, this led directly to his submission loss—he shot a desperate takedown from too far out, allowing Dumas to sprawl and secure the fight-ending guillotine.

His striking defense deteriorates significantly under pressure. Brundage keeps his chin high during exchanges and drops his lead hand when advancing, leaving him open to counters. Against Abdul-Malik, he absorbed multiple body shots while shelling up against the fence, showing his tendency to cover up rather than move his feet to escape danger.

Eric McConico's Breakdown

McConico enters with extremely limited UFC data—just one fight where he was knocked out by Nursulton Ruziboev at 0:33 of round 2. In that debut, McConico showed excessive caution and hesitancy, failing to implement any meaningful offense before being overwhelmed by Ruziboev's pressure and power.

His statistical profile reveals a defensive-minded approach with concerning output numbers. McConico lands only 0.18 head strikes per minute while absorbing 2.70, indicating he struggles to establish offensive rhythm. His leg kick game shows more activity (0.54 landed per minute), suggesting he prefers to work from the outside with low-risk attacks.

The 34-year-old's durability concerns were evident in his UFC debut, where he was dropped multiple times before the stoppage. His pre-UFC losses also came by knockout, establishing a pattern of vulnerability to power punchers.

Eric McConico's Technical Vulnerabilities

McConico's primary vulnerability is his offensive output and aggression level. Against Ruziboev, he appeared gun-shy and reactive, allowing his opponent to dictate pace and positioning. His striking accuracy of 38.5% combined with low output suggests he struggles to find his range and commit to exchanges.

His defensive striking statistics (47.8% defense percentage) indicate he absorbs significant damage when opponents pressure him. The Ruziboev fight showed McConico's tendency to retreat without effective countering, essentially giving ground without making opponents pay for their aggression.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic wrestler-versus-striker dynamic, but with both fighters showing significant vulnerabilities. Brundage's pressure wrestling could exploit McConico's hesitancy, as McConico showed no takedown attempts in his UFC debut and may struggle with Brundage's level changes.

McConico's 5-inch reach advantage (77" vs 72") could be neutralized by Brundage's willingness to pressure forward and work in the clinch. However, if McConico can maintain distance and avoid Brundage's takedown entries, his leg kicks could accumulate damage over time.

The key technical battle will be Brundage's overhand right versus McConico's defensive positioning. Brundage's power has proven fight-ending against aggressive opponents, but McConico's cautious approach might limit those counter opportunities.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Brundage's explosive entries and takedown attempts. McConico's hesitancy could allow Brundage to establish his wrestling game and control positioning. If Brundage can secure early takedowns, his ground control could accumulate rounds.

Mid-fight adjustments will be crucial for McConico. He needs to find his offensive rhythm and use his reach to keep Brundage at distance. However, his low output suggests he may struggle to build momentum even if he finds success.

Championship rounds could see Brundage's cardio become a factor, as his explosive style tends to fade in later rounds. McConico's defensive approach might preserve energy, but his lack of finishing ability means he'd need to clearly outpoint Brundage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brundage's power punching could end the fight early if McConico advances carelessly • McConico's reach advantage is his primary tool to control distance and avoid wrestling • Experience gap heavily favors Brundage despite recent struggles • Durability concerns for both fighters create potential for early finish

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in McConico stems from several key factors. Odds increased the prediction score by 6.0, reflecting McConico as the betting underdog despite his limited UFC experience. Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight boosted McConico's chances by 3.0, likely penalizing Brundage's wrestling-heavy approach. Significant Striking Impact Differential favored McConico by 2.0, suggesting the model values his defensive approach over Brundage's more aggressive but vulnerable style.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has extensive history with Brundage, going 6-4 in predictions across his UFC career. The model correctly predicted his losses to elite competition like Nickal and Dumas, but missed on some of his upset victories like the Marquez knockout. With McConico, this represents the model's first prediction, creating uncertainty around his true UFC-level capabilities.

Conclusion

Despite Brundage's experience advantage and knockout power, McConico's defensive approach and reach advantage create a path to victory in what should be a tactical battle. WolfTicketsAI expects McConico to use his length to frustrate Brundage's entries while avoiding the explosive counters that have defined Brundage's recent finishes.