Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila - UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Miesha Tate by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Austin, Texas, USA
Elevation: 149.00m
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Miesha Tate
3
15
+135
Julia Avila
12
10.9
-165

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Julia Avila to Win

Miesha Tate's Breakdown

Miesha Tate, a seasoned UFC fighter with notable grappling skills, has experienced a mixed bag in her recent UFC outings. She's lost three of her last five fights, with two losses by unanimous decision and a win by KO/TKO. Her striking stats show a balanced approach with decent striking accuracy, but her recent performance reveals a decline in effectiveness, particularly in striking defense. A major concern is her recent switch to Flyweight and back to Bantamweight, indicating potential issues with weight management and performance consistency.

Julia Avila's Breakdown

Julia Avila, a relatively newer face in the UFC with a stronger win record in recent fights, displays a balanced skill set with a notable edge in striking output and accuracy. Her recent performance includes a win by submission and a loss by unanimous decision. Avila's striking stats are impressive, particularly in her significant striking output differential and striking impact differential, suggesting she could outperform Tate in stand-up exchanges.

Analysis and Key Points

  1. Tate's Recent Performance: Tate's recent switch in weight class and her record of losing three out of her last five fights indicate potential challenges in maintaining peak performance.
  2. Avila's Striking Advantage: Avila's superior striking stats, especially in output and accuracy, could be pivotal against Tate, who has shown vulnerabilities in striking defense recently.
  3. Grappling Factor: While Tate is known for her grappling, her recent performances haven't consistently capitalized on this strength.

Conclusion

Considering the recent performances and stats, Julia Avila's advantages in striking, along with her consistent performance in the Bantamweight division, position her favorably against Miesha Tate. While Tate's experience and grappling skills are noteworthy, her recent record and potential issues related to weight class changes may hinder her performance. Avila's striking prowess and recent momentum suggest she is well-positioned to secure a win in this matchup.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Miesha Tate Julia Avila
Main Stats
Age 37 35
Height 66" 67"
Reach 65" 68"
Win Percentage 67.86% 81.82%
Wins 20 9
Losses 9 3
Wins at Weight Class 5 3
Losses at Weight Class 3 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 56.54% 54.95%
Significant Striking Accuracy 45.84% 44.38%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.086 5.595
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.076 3.178
Knockdowns per Fight 0.085 0.336
Striking Impact Differential -11.75% 10.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -2.92% 3.50%
Striking Output Differential -11.08% 17.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential -3.00% 8.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 75.97% 70.80%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 118.32% 112.68%
Striking Defense Percentage 52.65% 55.56%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.929 0.336
Takedowns per Fight 1.183 0.671
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.323 2.014
Takedown Defense 73.08% 62.50%
Takedown Accuracy 22.22% 33.33%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.926 2.171
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 4.962 5.886
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.309 2.260
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.901 0.604
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.403 0.828
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.591 0.336
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.248 0.403
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.344 0.448
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.372 0.269
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.535 0.671
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.789 0.962
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.676 0.246
Miesha Tate History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 16, 2022 Women's Flyweight Lauren Murphy Miesha Tate Lauren Murphy
Nov. 20, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira Miesha Tate Ketlen Vieira
July 17, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Marion Reneau Miesha Tate Miesha Tate
Nov. 12, 2016 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
July 9, 2016 UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Miesha Tate Amanda Nunes Amanda Nunes
March 5, 2016 UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Holly Holm Miesha Tate Miesha Tate
July 25, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Jessica Eye Miesha Tate
Jan. 31, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Sara McMann Miesha Tate
Sept. 20, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Rin Nakai Miesha Tate
April 19, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Liz Carmouche Miesha Tate
Dec. 28, 2013 UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Ronda Rousey Miesha Tate Ronda Rousey
April 13, 2013 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Cat Zingano Cat Zingano
Julia Avila History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 26, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Julia Avila Julija Stoliarenko Julia Avila
Sept. 12, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Julia Avila Sijara Eubanks Sijara Eubanks
June 13, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Julia Avila Gina Mazany Julia Avila
July 6, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Julia Avila Pannie Kianzad Julia Avila