Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan - UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Austin, Texas, USA
Elevation: 149.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Beneil Dariush
15
+220
Arman Tsarukyan
23
2
5.8
-275

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Arman Tsarukyan to Win

Beneil Dariush's Breakdown

Beneil Dariush, a seasoned lightweight, brings a well-rounded skill set to the octagon. With a recent loss to Charles Oliveira via KO/TKO, there's a notable vulnerability in Dariush's game against high-caliber strikers, as evidenced by his history of losses predominantly by KO/TKO. Despite this, Dariush has shown resilience and adaptability, bouncing back from setbacks to secure wins against tough competitors like Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. His striking and grappling statistics reflect his balanced approach, yet recent bouts highlight a potential decline in his ability to absorb damage, especially concerning given Tsarukyan's aggressive striking style.

Arman Tsarukyan's Breakdown

Arman Tsarukyan is a rising star in the lightweight division, known for his explosive striking and relentless pressure. His recent victories, particularly the TKO win over Joaquim Silva, demonstrate his knockout power and ability to control the pace of the fight. Tsarukyan's stats reveal his proficiency in takedowns and striking, with a significant edge in striking output differential and accuracy compared to Dariush. His loss to Gamrot, a common opponent with Dariush, was by decision, indicating his endurance in grueling matches. Tsarukyan's recent performances suggest a fighter on the ascent, with increasing confidence and skill in each outing.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Dariush's vulnerability to KO/TKO is a major concern, especially against Tsarukyan's aggressive striking.
  • Tsarukyan's recent performances show an upward trajectory with improvements in striking and takedown abilities.
  • Dariush's experience and well-rounded skills are notable, but recent losses hint at a potential decline.
  • Tsarukyan's striking output and accuracy could overwhelm Dariush, who has been susceptible to such attacks in the past.

Conclusion

Considering the recent performances and statistics of both fighters, Tsarukyan's aggressive and precise striking, combined with his ability to execute takedowns effectively, positions him as the likely victor against Dariush. While Dariush's experience and versatility are formidable, his recent KO/TKO loss and decreasing ability to absorb significant strikes tilt the odds in Tsarukyan's favor. Therefore, WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Tsarukyan winning aligns with the analysis of both fighters' recent fights and overall capabilities.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Beneil Dariush Arman Tsarukyan
Main Stats
Age 34 27
Height 70" 67"
Reach 72" 72"
Win Percentage 81.48% 86.96%
Wins 22 21
Losses 6 3
Wins at Weight Class 16 7
Losses at Weight Class 6 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 53.75% 58.59%
Significant Striking Accuracy 49.11% 48.00%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.065 6.571
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.789 3.820
Knockdowns per Fight 0.515 0.245
Striking Impact Differential 11.45% 39.44%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 10.77% 26.00%
Striking Output Differential 16.09% 69.89%
Significant Striking Output Differential 13.41% 51.78%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 76.16% 36.65%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 96.11% 58.76%
Striking Defense Percentage 58.10% 54.03%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.883 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 1.914 3.428
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.595 9.427
Takedown Defense 23.68% 33.33%
Takedown Accuracy 34.21% 36.36%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.322 2.432
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.811 6.162
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.625 1.233
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.883 0.906
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.242 1.233
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.736 0.539
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.584 0.482
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.663 0.563
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.265 0.139
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.604 0.286
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.908 0.408
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.407 0.359
Beneil Dariush History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 10, 2023 Lightweight Charles Oliveira Beneil Dariush Charles Oliveira
Oct. 22, 2022 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Mateusz Gamrot Beneil Dariush
May 15, 2021 Lightweight Tony Ferguson Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Feb. 6, 2021 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Aug. 8, 2020 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Scott Holtzman Beneil Dariush
March 7, 2020 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Drakkar Klose Beneil Dariush
Oct. 26, 2019 Lightweight Frank Camacho Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
March 9, 2019 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Drew Dober Beneil Dariush
Nov. 10, 2018 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Thiago Moises Beneil Dariush
March 3, 2018 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Alexander Hernandez Alexander Hernandez
Oct. 7, 2017 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Evan Dunham None
March 11, 2017 Lightweight Edson Barboza Beneil Dariush Edson Barboza
Nov. 5, 2016 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Rashid Magomedov Beneil Dariush
June 4, 2016 Lightweight Beneil Dariush James Vick Beneil Dariush
April 16, 2016 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Michael Chiesa Michael Chiesa
Aug. 8, 2015 Lightweight Michael Johnson Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
April 18, 2015 Lightweight Jim Miller Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
March 14, 2015 Lightweight Daron Cruickshank Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Oct. 25, 2014 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Aug. 23, 2014 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Anthony Rocco Martin Beneil Dariush
April 11, 2014 Lightweight Ramsey Nijem Beneil Dariush Ramsey Nijem
Jan. 15, 2014 Lightweight Charlie Brenneman Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Arman Tsarukyan History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 17, 2023 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Joaquim Silva Arman Tsarukyan
Dec. 17, 2022 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Damir Ismagulov Arman Tsarukyan
June 25, 2022 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Mateusz Gamrot Mateusz Gamrot
Feb. 26, 2022 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Joel Alvarez Arman Tsarukyan
Sept. 18, 2021 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Christos Giagos Arman Tsarukyan
Jan. 23, 2021 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Matt Frevola Arman Tsarukyan
July 18, 2020 Lightweight Davi Ramos Arman Tsarukyan Arman Tsarukyan
July 27, 2019 Lightweight Olivier Aubin-Mercier Arman Tsarukyan Arman Tsarukyan
April 20, 2019 Lightweight Islam Makhachev Arman Tsarukyan Islam Makhachev